The article reports that proponents of the Iraq War, including Fareed Zakaria, Thomas L. Friedman, and Brit Hume, made incorrect predictions about its outcome, with some claiming it would bring reform to the Arab world or lead to a "relatively bloodless victory". Similarly, pundits such as Marc Thiessen and Mark Dubowitz predicted a quick collapse of the Iranian government in response to military action, but this did not occur. The key angle of the article is that these predictions were based on flawed assumptions and a failure to consider the complexities of both wars, with some pundits refusing to acknowledge their mistakes even after they became clear.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-05,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event.
The George W. Bush administration and its camp followers in the media sold the Iraq War with lies and spin.
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administration → sell → lies
Before the war, hawkish pundits such as CNN host Fareed Zakaria and New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman promised that it would bring reform to the Arab world.
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it → promise → world
Once the war started, Fox News host Brit Hume gloated that critics got it "completely wrong," and his colleague Tony Snow declared a "relatively bloodless victory"—two statements that aged very badly as the new Iraq collapsed into decades of war, with U.S. troops in the line of fire.
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troops → start → fire
So it went in Iran.
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it → go → Iran
Pro-war journalists and TV talking heads predicted that the Iranian government would collapse at the first push.
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government → talk → push
Once the war started, they ignored signs that things were not going as planned.
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things → start → signs
Unlike the Iraq War, the war in Iran has not turned into a drawn-out insurgency.
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war → turn → insurgency
The U.S. did not even topple the government, instead accepting a ceasefire after four weeks.
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U.S. → topple → weeks
But that ceasefire did not hold.
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ceasefire → hold → ?
At press time, the U.S. and Iran were fighting over the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for trade that had been fully open before the war.
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that → fight → war
*
Before the U.S. attacked Iran on February 28, a chorus of media personalities, including several with direct lines to President Donald Trump, argued that a war with Iran would last only a few days.
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war → attack → Iran
Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen predicted that the Iranian government would quickly fall because "the Iranian people are the boots on the ground."
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people → predict → ground
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the neoconservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Hugh Hewitt Show that Ali Khamenei, then Iran's supreme leader, would not fight back because "that's the end of his regime."
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that → tell → regime
Fox News host Mark Levin claimed Iran physically couldn't fight back.
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Iran → claim → ?
Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince of Iran overthrown in the 1979 revolution, was frequently featured on Fox News as a pro-war Iranian voice.
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Pahlavi → overthrow → voice
Although he had some support among Iranians, the suburban dad formerly known as prince was making wild promises he couldn't keep.
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he → have → promises
In a February 12 interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, Pahlavi urged U.S. intervention, claiming he had recruited an army of 100,000 defectors.
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he → urge → defectors
Not a single uprising against the Iranian government happened during the war.
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uprising → happen → war
John Podhoretz, heir to the neoconservative magazine Commentary, at least admitted that his predictions fell flat.
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predictions → admit → magazine
In the first hours of the war, he wrote that the U.S. military would leave "quick work for Iranians themselves to kick the mullahs to the curb."
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Iranians → write → curb
On a Commentary podcast four months later, he said "there is no person on Earth who is going to say that America didn't lose the war."
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America → say → war
Other pundits simply refused to acknowledge when things were not going their way.
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things → refuse → way
Week after week, Fox News commentator Jack Keane said the war would be over in two or three more weeks.
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war → say → weeks
Many of these pundits' arguments were simply an appeal to shut up and trust the leader.
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Many → shut → leader
In mid-March, retired British Army officer Richard Kemp complained in The Telegraph about an excess of "doom mongering."
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Kemp → complain → mongering
The media, he claimed, were simply "not privy" to the genius of Trump's plans.
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he → claim → plans
On CNN a few days before the April ceasefire, former Bush administration official Scott Jennings said "there is no doubt we have defanged this regime."
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we → say → regime
Zineb Riboua, a research fellow with the neoconservative Hudson Institute, complained a few days after the ceasefire that the West was ignoring the "lived experience" of Arabs, who she claimed supported the war.
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she → complain → war
Public opinion polling from both before and after the war suggested that Arab publics were increasingly rooting for Iran and opposing the war.
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publics → suggest → war
Riboua also claimed the war was "all about" weakening China by, among other things, eliminating a cheap source of oil.
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war → claim → oil
Three months after the ceasefire, China was snapping up discounted oil from Iran's rivals.
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China → snap → rivals
Soon after the ceasefire, Trump attempted to pressure Iran further by blockading its ports, and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a prediction that Iran would be forced to shut down its oil wells within 13 days, causing permanent damage.
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Iran → attempt → damage
Trump repeated a similar timeline on Fox News, predicting that the wells would literally explode at the end of April.
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wells → repeat → April
That didn't happen.
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That → happen → ?
Many of the cheerleaders for war with Iran were the same people who had cheered on the invasion of Iraq, often with the same arguments.
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who → cheer → arguments
Fox News host Sean Hannity, who predicted in February 2003 that the Iraq War was "going to be over very quickly," said almost exactly the same thing in February 2026: "It's not going to be a forever war.
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It → predict → February
It's going to be overwhelming military might and force, and then it's going to be up to the people of Iran.
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it → go → Iran
If they want a chance at freedom, they will have it, I believe, within the next few weeks."
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I → want → weeks
New York Times columnist Bret Stephens, who bragged in 2023 about his lack of regrets about the Iraq War, whined in March 2026 about "our inability to appreciate the advantages we now possess."
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we → brag → advantages
Benjamin Netanyahu, testifying before the U.S. Congress as a retired prime minister and private citizen in 2002, said invading Iraq would have "enormous positive reverberations."
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invading → testify → reverberations
…and 6 more, not listed.
