The Aporia
US forces are set to pull out from their last bases in Iraq by September 30, 2026, a departure celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies who now have deep influence in the country where 4,500 Americans died during more than two decades of war. The withdrawal was agreed upon in 2024 under President Joe Biden and implemented by Donald Trump's administration despite ongoing conflict with Iran.
Some Iraqi security officials fear the pullout could revive Islamic State fighters, who maintain sleeper cells despite their self-proclaimed caliphate's defeat nearly a decade ago. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in armed Shi'ite groups aligned with Iran, predicts pro-Iranian militia groups will leverage this momentum to gain more influence over Iraq’s security and political decision-making.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the US withdrawal as "a historic victory for Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honourable Iraqis," marking what he sees as a crushing defeat for American ambitions in the region.