The gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania, a swing state with one of the most important bellwether counties1 in national elections, isn’t going so well for Republicans.
asserted
race → go → Republicans
Stacy Garrity, state treasurer and the GOP nominee for governor, is lagging in the polls and failing to spark enthusiasm among the top party officials who should be some of her most important allies against Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro.
asserted
who → lag → Shapiro
“Well, I don’t know, I think Gov. Shapiro has a pretty strong position there,” Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) told me.
asserted
Kelly → know → me
“I like Stacy.
asserted
I → like → Stacy
I think her background is perfect for what she’s running for, so we’ll see.
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we → think → what
We’ll see.”
asserted
We → see → ?
“Right now, if you were to talk to most people, they would think that [Shapiro] has an incredible amount of money in his war chest, and I don’t think Stacy has a lot of money,” Kelly added.
asserted
Kelly → talk → money
“She has a lot of talent.”
asserted
She → have → talent
Kelly was bearish on Garrity’s gubernatorial bid, noting that from what he’s seen in the northwest part of Pennsylvania, “it was always gonna be an uphill battle anyways, because Gov. Shapiro worked pretty hard in the last election.”
asserted
Shapiro → note → election
Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) also invoked the imagery of “an uphill battle” to describe Garrity’s attempt to unseat the governor, adding that Shapiro is a formidable candidate.
“He’s a leader of the neo-Democrat party—certainly not your father’s Democrat party,” Meuser told me.
asserted
Meuser → invoke → me
“We have seen some polls that were in the single digits.
asserted
that → see → digits
Then, of course, I’ve seen them as well that are at sixteen, seventeen [points],” he continued, describing the gap that Garrity would need to close to catch up with Shapiro.
asserted
Garrity → see → Shapiro
“Well, because incumbency in Pennsylvania—in the governor’s office—it means a lot.
asserted
it → mean → lot
Meuser also suggested that Shapiro enjoys the support even of some Republicans—cautious ones who expect the governor to win re-election, and who want to avoid alienating or antagonizing him at the start of a new four-year term.
uncertain
who → suggest → term
“Josh plays rough,” he said, sounding a note of grudging respect.
asserted
he → play → respect
“He holds it against those that don’t support him, and people are checking the risk.
asserted
people → hold → risk
Meuser concluded by saying he is very much behind Garrity, noting that if Pennsylvanians were to put her in the governor’s mansion, the state would begin a shift to more closely align with the economically upwardly mobile parts of the American South.
“But if we truly want Pennsylvania to be in the realm of Georgia, Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, if we want our young people to stop fleeing the commonwealth for better-paying jobs and better lives, hopefully we’ll get that and elect Stacy Garrity,” Meuser said.
asserted
Meuser → conclude → Garrity
Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who’s struggling through his own tough race, told me he’s witnessed some enthusiasm for Garrity among voters in some regions.
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he → struggle → regions
“I see when she does an event in Northeastern Pennsylvania, it’s well-attended,” Bresnahan said.
asserted
Bresnahan → see → Pennsylvania
“And I don’t think Northeastern Pennsylvania reflects the attitudes of Philadelphia.
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Pennsylvania → think → Philadelphia
So I think the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is a very big state.”
asserted
Commonwealth → think → Pennsylvania
Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon, a Democrat representing the region just west of Philadelphia, doesn’t seem terribly bothered that there might be hidden reserves of Garrity voters hiding in the rural parts of the state.
uncertain
Scanlon → represent → state
She joked about the enthusiasm gap in the contest for governor: “I’d urge [Republicans] to spend heavily on all their bad races.”
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I → joke → races
Scanlon has reason to be cavalier.
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Scanlon → have → reason
In late August, three separate polls showed Garrity trailing Shapiro by double digits.
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Garrity → show → digits
A PennLive/Bravo Group poll had Garrity behind by 31 points, a Franklin & Marshall College poll found a 25-point gap, and a New York Times poll had Shapiro leading by 16.
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Shapiro → have → 16
From a financial perspective, Garrity assumed the nomination with a ten-to-one disadvantage in fundraising.
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Garrity → assume → fundraising
As of last week, Shapiro still held a $16 million lead, which can buy up a lot of airtime across the state.
asserted
which → hold → state
In other swing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, Democrats are also leading their opponents.
asserted
Democrats → lead → opponents
The wider the gap between Garrity and Shapiro gets, the likelier Republicans are to write off the race as a lost cause.
asserted
Republicans → get → cause
You could get your news from an algorithm.
uncertain
You → get → algorithm
You came here instead because you want to know what’s actually going on.
asserted
what → come → ?
When Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) lost his primary last month, it looked like the Republican voters of Florida’s 7th Congressional District were hoping to turn the page on unethical representation in Washington.
asserted
voters → lose → Washington
Unfortunately for them, just a few pages later, they have discovered that Mills’s likely replacement might have some ethical problems of his own.
uncertain
replacement → discover → own
According to Florida Politics, Republican Ryan Elijah is now the subject of an ethics complaint alleging he is subverting proper candidate disclosure laws.
uncertain
he → accord → laws
Sarah Austin, an Oviedo woman in Florida’s 7th Congressional District, said Elijah, a former television news anchor, failed to report details on up to $5.1 million in personal assets listed in his financial disclosures.
asserted
Elijah → say → disclosures
Elijah on June 14 reported his net worth included a Fidelity 401(k) account worth between $1 million and $5 million, as well as a Charles Schwab retirement account worth between $50,000 and $100,000.
asserted
worth → report → account
But he didn’t disclose where any of that value was derived.
asserted
any → disclose → value
“For neither account did Mr. Elijah identify a single underlying asset.
asserted
Elijah → identify → asset
No stock, no bond, no mutual fund, no exchange-traded fund, no cash position,” Austin’s complaint reads.
asserted
complaint → trade → stock
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
