- Published
As summer temperatures in Europe smashed records and many politicians shifted to holiday mode, Russia remained focused on its war.
asserted
Russia → publish → war
Not only did its military attacks across Ukraine intensify last month, becoming ever more deadly for civilians, Russia also appears to have escalated its sabotage campaign across Europe.
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Russia → intensify → Europe
A full month after drones packed with explosives were found at Leipzig's airport, used by Ukraine to transport military goods, Germany's interior minister has declared that "Russia is responsible".
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Russia → pack → goods
Russia's President Vladimir Putin is demanding proof, as always, and his officials call the accusation "absurd".
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officials → demand → accusation
August then brought a series of suspicious fires at defence facilities from Italy to Estonia.
asserted
August → bring → Estonia
Some of the affected countries have already blamed Russia; others are still investigating and some fires may eventually be ruled accidental, exactly as such attacks are designed to seem.
uncertain
attacks → affect → Russia
"There are many, many signals that Russia is changing its strategy and intensifying its activities, including terrorist and sabotage activities," Marcin Kierwiński said, warning people to be on their guard.
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Kierwiński → be → guard
The first drone at Leipzig airport is discovered.
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drone → discover → airport
A major fire breaks out at a warehouse of defence firm EMCO in Tryavna.
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fire → break → Tryavna
In a statement, the company recalled previous blasts at its facilities which were investigated for links to Russia.
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which → recall → Russia
"Human error is excluded," it said.
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it → exclude → ?
A fire at KNDS Ammo Italy outside Rome triggers a large explosion.
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fire → trigger → explosion
The local prosecutor is looking into possible outside interference, La Repubblica newspaper reports.
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newspaper → look → interference
Publicly, his office will only confirm that a case has been opened for negligent disaster against "unknown persons".
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case → confirm → persons
The Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn, which the Kyiv Post says supplies drones to Ukraine, goes up in flames.
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Post → say → flames
Two suspects are arrested.
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suspects → arrest → ?
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal says the possibility of Russian sabotage is being "taking seriously" by investigators.
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possibility → say → investigators
Police announce they have averted an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned drone manufacturer and seized a "large amount of incendiary mixture".
asserted
they → announce → mixture
The firm itself blames Russia and police arrest three suspects who they say were "following orders".
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they → blame → orders
A country which is heavily targeted for sabotage reports two more fires.
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which → target → fires
One is in Lublin at a company which produces helicopter components.
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which → produce → components
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said arson "cannot be ruled out".
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arson → say → ?
An attack on the drone producer, WB Group, is clearer cut.
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attack → cut → producer
A masked man is caught on CCTV throwing incendiary devices.
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man → catch → devices
Tusk calls it a "continuation of Russia's escalatory activities".
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Tusk → call → activities
The pattern has continued into September with two Bulgarians arrested in Munich, Germany, for suspected arson after throwing incendiary devices from a car at defence firm Rhode & Schwartz.
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Bulgarians → continue → Rhode
Separately, police say they are hunting a climate extremist suspected of sabotage attacks this week on power substations in western Germany.
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they → say → Germany
Why is this happening now?
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this → happen → ?
Attacks on military and defence targets are not new, although previous acts of sabotage linked to Russia include more puzzling targets - such as an Ikea store and a Polish paint store.
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acts → link → store
"The intensity of military sites being attacked we've seen over the past couple of weeks is unusual," Daniela Richterova of the Department of War Studies at King's College says.
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Richterova → attack → College
She links the spike to developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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She → link → Ukraine
"We've basically seen Ukraine take the war to Russia and strike deep inside Russian territory…
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Ukraine → see → territory
They [Moscow] are under pressure, they have to do something."
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they → have → something
Whilst some sabotage is staged to sow chaos or fear, Richterova believes the Kremlin's aim right now is "coercive signalling": pressuring countries to stop supporting Kyiv by raising the stakes.
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aim → stag → stakes
To some, Russia is less concerned about "turning off the taps" of supplies to Ukraine and more about testing Nato for weaknesses.
asserted
Russia → turn → weaknesses
"Russia is probing the boundaries of what's acceptable and collecting information on the results.
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what → probe → results
They find out what works, and what's vulnerable," argues Keir Giles from the Chatham House think tank.
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Giles → find → tank
He sees the sabotage campaign as preparation for the "next phase", as he puts it, of Russia's aggression in Europe.
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he → see → Europe
"They're assessing the willingness of the victim country to actually do something about it."
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They → assess → it
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which tracks sabotage cases, points to a previous surge in 2024 when Ukraine's allies began allowing it to use Western-supplied weapons deeper inside Russia.
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it → track → Russia
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
