The Sept. 30 deadline for Iraq’s militias to surrender their weapons is approaching, and Baghdad is already looking beyond it.
asserted
Baghdad → surrender → it
That should surprise no one.
asserted
That → surprise → one
The problem is whether the Iraqi government has the power to disarm organizations that have spent years embedding themselves in the country’s political, security, and economic system.
asserted
that → have → system
At the center of that problem is the muqawama, the “resistance” network of Iran-aligned armed factions that has accumulated military and political power inside Iraq.
asserted
that → align → Iraq
The meetings in New York this week offered a striking picture of Baghdad’s dilemma.
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meetings → offer → dilemma
An Iraqi delegation traveled to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.
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delegation → travel → Assembly
But when Iraq’s prime minister sat down with President Donald Trump, the Iraqi leader was accompanied only by his interpreter.
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leader → sit → interpreter
Trump sat across from him, surrounded by members of his team.
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Trump → sit → team
It captured something fundamental about the relationship between Washington and Baghdad.
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It → capture → Washington
The Iraqi prime minister can sit privately with an American president and discuss sovereignty, militias, Iran, and the future of the U.S.-Iraq relationship.
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minister → sit → relationship
But whatever he says in New York, he still has to return to Baghdad and implement it.
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he → say → it
That is where the real problem begins.
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problem → begin → ?
No Iraqi prime minister can simply issue an order and expect the country’s most powerful armed factions to surrender their weapons.
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factions → issue → weapons
Iraq’s political system is too fragmented for that.
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system → fragment → that
Power is divided among the prime minister’s office, ministries, political parties, parliamentary blocs, armed factions, economic networks, and institutions with competing loyalties and interests.
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Power → divide → loyalties
Some of the most powerful factions maintain longstanding relationships with Tehran.
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Some → maintain → Tehran
The muqawama is not simply a collection of men carrying rifles.
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muqawama → carry → rifles
These factions have spent years building political organizations, economic interests, patronage networks, and connections inside the Iraqi state.
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factions → spend → state
Some participate in elections and politics while maintaining armed capabilities.
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Some → participate → capabilities
If the deadline passes without meaningful disarmament, it will expose a reality Washington has struggled with for years: Iraq’s militia problem cannot be solved simply by announcing another timetable and waiting for Baghdad to enforce it.
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Baghdad → pass → it
Even if the prime minister genuinely wants all weapons placed under state authority, wanting it and possessing the power to accomplish it are two very different things.
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wanting → want → it
Washington is discussing some of its most sensitive regional concerns with a government operating inside a political system in which different parties and factions maintain very different relationships with Tehran.
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parties → discuss → Tehran
That does not mean every Iraqi official works for Iran.
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official → mean → Iran
It does not mean Iraq should be treated as an Iranian possession.
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Iraq → mean → possession
Millions of Iraqis want a sovereign country capable of making its own decisions without interference from Washington, Tehran, or anyone else.
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Millions → want → Washington
And whatever commitments the prime minister makes behind closed doors in New York, he cannot implement them alone when he returns to Baghdad.
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he → make → Baghdad
This is also why the militia question cannot be separated from Iran.
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question → separate → Iran
As long as Tehran retains political, financial, and organizational relationships with key elements of the muqawama, asking those factions to surrender their weapons means asking them to surrender one of the principal sources of their influence.
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asking → retain → influence
Why would they do that, simply because another deadline has arrived?
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deadline → do → that
For years, Washington has concentrated heavily on the weapons themselves.
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Washington → concentrate → weapons
Money matters.
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Money → matter → ?
Political protection matters.
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protection → matter → ?
Government positions matter.
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positions → matter → ?
Economic networks matter.
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networks → matter → ?
Iranian support matters.
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support → matter → ?
Most of all, state authority matters.
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authority → matter → all
A sovereign government must ultimately determine who carries weapons on its territory.
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who → determine → territory
It must control public money and enforce its own laws.
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It → control → laws
Decisions of war and peace cannot simultaneously belong to an elected government and to armed organizations operating beyond its effective command.
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Decisions → belong → command
Otherwise, sovereignty becomes little more than a word.
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sovereignty → become → word
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
