At what point, I wonder, does John Swinney begin to realise just how ridiculous he’s become.
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he → wonder → ?
A proud Scottish Nationalist for more than half a century, the First Minister has spent his adult life dreaming of breaking up the United Kingdom.
And, during the best part of two decades in government at Holyrood, he has gone further, promising supporters that independence day is tantalisingly close.
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day → spend → supporters
Neither contradictory poll nor General Election defeat can persuade Mr Swinney that he is wrong.
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he → persuade → Swinney
So fanatical are he and his colleagues about their constitutional mission that they took comprehensive defeat in 2014’s independence referendum as a sign they were winning the argument.
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they → take → argument
Twelve years on, senior SNP figures continue to insist that the Scots who rejected independence are ready to join the nationalist cause.
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who → continue → cause
John Swinney continues to push the case for Scottish independence
On Tuesday afternoon, John Swinney could be witnessed letting loose his delusions in the Holyrood chamber.
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Swinney → continue → chamber
Opening a Scottish Government debate on his desire for another independence referendum, the First Minister urged MSPs to agree with him that “Scotland is a nation that has a right to decide its own future”.
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that → open → future
Before Mr Swinney rose to speak, Reform UK’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord raised a point of order with Presiding Officer Kenny Gibson.
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leader → rise → Gibson
Since the constitution was a matter reserved to Westminster, would Mr Gibson end the meeting?
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Gibson → reserve → meeting
Mr Gibson rejected Mr Offord’s suggestion: this was a parliament and there would be debate.
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this → reject → suggestion
Well, people would speak out loud.
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people → speak → ?
Mr Swinney’s opponents – even Mr Offord – agreed with the principle that Scots should, indeed, be free to decide Scotland’s future.
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Scots → agree → future
It was pointed out to the First Minister that, in fact, Scots had already done so in 2014.
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Scots → point → 2014
Of course, the debate called in the First Minister’s name was not really about whether Scotland will or won’t have a second independence referendum.
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Scotland → call → referendum
Malcolm Offord, leader of Reform UK in Scotland, led his MSPs out of the chamber in protest over independence debate
It was, as Scottish Labour’s recently elected leader Michael Marra quite correctly pointed out, about managing the First Minister’s own party.
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leader → lead → party
John Swinney, you see, just can’t level with the people he leads.
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he → see → people
The First Minister is an honest man (and, if you don’t believe me, just ask him) but for a man who makes so much about his own integrity – often, at times of pressure – he struggles to explain reality to SNP members.
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he → believe → members
Rather than telling them that he and his party are woefully under-prepared for a second referendum, that the SNP’s accounts remain in a terrible state after former chief executive Peter Murrell’s spending spree, and that all the polling shows him the chances of a second defeat remain high, Mr Swinney leads his supporters to believe that they are being denied their democratic rights.
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they → tell → rights
For the nine years she was in office, former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon played the same game with SNP members.
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Sturgeon → play → members
Scarcely a week went by without Ms Sturgeon hailing some rogue poll as proof the game was on.
But you can only lead people on so far before they get wise or get irritated.
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they → go → people
The more frequently Nicola Sturgeon promised a referendum she could not deliver, the more frustrated SNP supporters became.
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supporters → promise → referendum
Splits began to develop in the party, among activists and elected members over strategy.
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Splits → begin → strategy
Eventually, Ms Sturgeon proposed to stage a second constitutional vote in October 2023 and, when the Supreme Court confirmed she had no power to do so, proposed treating the next General Election as a “de facto” referendum.
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she → propose → referendum
By that point, Ms Sturgeon had rendered herself fully ridiculous and, perhaps in time, she’ll reflect that, while her political career might have ended in the most skin-crawling ignominy, at least she no longer has to pretend she has the answer to the question “How does Scotland become independent?”
The responsibility for carrying that particular torch of sophistry is now John Swinney’s and Tuesday’s debate showed he is more than ready to keep telling supporters of independence whatever they want to hear.
And so the First Minister chuntered on while his colleagues in the SNP and his fellow nationalists in the Scottish Greens nodded along.
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colleagues → render → Greens
By the close of business at Holyrood, Indyref 2 (assuming one ever happens) was precisely one day closer.
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one → assume → Holyrood
Not a single word spoken by the First Minister and his fellow nationalists changed the likelihood of a referendum taking place, any time soon.
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referendum → speak → place
While those for whom support for independence is fundamental to who they are may have been suitably fobbed off by John Swinney’s completely meaningless debate, the rest of us are entitled to think it an outrageous waste of parliamentary time.
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it → fob → time
Perhaps the worst of the First Minister’s cynical use of parliamentary time to debate independence is that it – quite deliberately – diverts attention away from the SNP’s failings in other areas.
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it → debate → areas
Support for the nationalists is, as shocking general election results in 2017 and 2024 showed, not quite as solid as a succession of arrogant party leaders believed.
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succession → show → leaders
After a while, people start to notice things like failing schools and an NHS in crisis.
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people → start → crisis
Lacking the imagination or, it would seem, the inclination to take on the big issues of the moment, Mr Swinney seeks to give the impression of momentum by focussing on the one issue that truly matters to him.
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that → lack → him
In the foreign country of 2014, when Nicola Sturgeon succeeded Alex Salmond as First Minister, aides briefed that the SNP’s position was that it would not seek a second referendum until support for independence had been polling at more than 60 per cent for a period of six months.
This, even the SNP’s Unionist opponents conceded, was a reasonable position.
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opponents → succeed → months
The 2014 referendum had been grinding and divisive and the result conclusive enough to put the question to rest.
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result → put → rest
That principled position lasted around five minutes before Ms Sturgeon began agitating for a referendum that the majority of Scots did not want.
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majority → last → Scots
Last week, John Swinney met with nationalist leaders from the devolved administrations of Wales and Northern Ireland.
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Swinney → meet → Wales
This photo-call dressed up as a summit was intended to give the impression that the United Kingdom is on its last legs.
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Kingdom → dress → legs
But the truth is that neither John Swinney nor Scotland is ready or willing to go through another gruelling referendum campaign and the more he insists otherwise the more laughable he becomes.
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he → go → campaign
The Aporia
