Following US mediation, Syrian and Israeli representatives met in Jordan last weekend for the first time in months.
asserted
representatives → follow → months
The talks aimed to defuse tensions following the recent Israeli attacks on Syrian territory and prevent hostilities between Israel and Turkey from spilling over into Syria.
asserted
talks → aim → Syria
The escalation was sparked by an Israeli attack on the Abu Duhur military airfield in Syria's Idlib Province on August 18.
asserted
escalation → spark → August
According to Syrian sources, the attack struck the runway and storage facilities without causing any fatalities.
uncertain
attack → accord → fatalities
Israel stated that Syria had violated — or threatened to violate — a previous security agreement by allowing Turkish troops to use the airfield.
asserted
troops → state → airfield
The governments of both Syria and Turkey rejected these allegations.
asserted
governments → reject → allegations
The United States criticized the attack by its Israeli ally as an "unnecessary escalation."
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States → criticize → escalation
In diplomatic terms, this amounts to a fairly clear show of rhetorical support for Ankara and Damascus.
asserted
this → amount → Ankara
Israel views a potential Turkish military presence in Syria as a red line.
asserted
Israel → view → line
Yet, it remains unclear whether such a deployment is planned in the long term or whether it was even imminent at the time of the attack.
uncertain
it → remain → attack
However, as early as April 2025, Reuters news agency cited anonymous sources saying Turkey had inspected at least three air bases in Syria where it might want to station troops as part of a planned joint defense pact.
uncertain
it → cite → pact
Israeli airstrikes were already taking place at that time as well.
asserted
airstrikes → take → time
The Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), which is considered pro-Israel, justifies the attack as follows: "Israel worries that Ankara could eventually use its military presence in Syria as a platform to pressure or threaten Israel, and remains wary of the close relationship between Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the Turkish leadership.
uncertain
Ankara → base → Sharaa
"
Syria, Turkey and Israel disagree on the future order
For Bente Scheller, Syria expert at the German Green Party-affiliated Heinrich Böll Foundation, this explanation falls short.
asserted
explanation → disagree → Foundation
"There is no evidence so far that Turkish troops are actually supposed to be stationed there," she told DW.
asserted
she → be → DW
While Israel may indeed have its own intelligence, the recent attack must be viewed against the backdrop of Israel's overall policy toward Syria as well as Turkey's growing regional role, she noted.
uncertain
she → have → Syria
Marcus Schneider, a Middle East analyst at Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation — which is affiliated with the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) — in Beirut, also points out that a struggle for power and influence is unfolding in Syria and beyond.
asserted
struggle → affiliate → Syria
"The attack primarily raises the question of what kind of military order will emerge in Syria in the future," he told DW.
asserted
he → raise → DW
In his view, Israel wants to keep Syria weak, as a sovereign state that controls its own airspace would restrict Israel's military freedom of action.
asserted
that → want → action
"The corridor for attacks against Iran runs through Syria," explained Schneider.
asserted
Schneider → run → Syria
A sovereign Syria could therefore pose a strategic obstacle to Israel.
uncertain
Syria → pose → Israel
Following the Hamas terror attacks on Israel on October 7, Israel's heightened security concerns are understandable, adds Scheller.
asserted
Scheller → follow → October
In addition, Israel is certainly viewing with concern another development that extends beyond Syria.
asserted
that → view → Syria
"Israel is undoubtedly aware of how Turkey is currently attempting to position itself as a regional hegemon," Scheller said.
asserted
Scheller → attempt → hegemon
Turkey supports Syrian President al-Sharaa and is committed to a unified Syria which includes the territory in the country's northeast, where the majority of Syria's Kurdish population is located.
asserted
majority → support → population
For years, Turkey has been attacking the former Kurdish-led autonomous zone along its southern border.
asserted
Turkey → attack → border
On Tuesday, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces announced the official dissolution of the group.
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commander → lead → group
An analysis by the US think tank Carnegie Foundation describes the situation as a strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey: "The northeast is also the main arena where two externally driven strategic visions for Syria collide."
asserted
visions → describe → Syria
The International Crisis Group also views Syria as a fault line between Turkey, a rising regional power, and Israel.
asserted
Group → view → Turkey
Syria's closer relations with the US
Syria's improved relations with the US — which amount to US support — offer new prospects for the country, despite the Islamist past of its new leader, President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
asserted
which → improve → leader
In summer 2025, the US began gradually easing sanctions, and in November of that year, al-Sharaa was received by US President Trump at the White House.
asserted
Sharaa → begin → House
The two met again on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara in July 2026.
asserted
two → meet → July
In early 2026, the US withdrew its military forces from Syria, and on Monday (August 24), it officially removed the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.
asserted
it → withdraw → terrorism
However, under the current circumstances, Syria appears to be relying primarily on itself, including in its relations with Turkey.
asserted
Syria → appear → Turkey
Contrary to the view held in Israel, he argues that Ankara is primarily interested in a stable Syria and in securing its southern border.
asserted
Ankara → hold → border
"The idea that Turkey, a NATO member, would attack Israel, a nuclear power, is preposterous," he said.
asserted
he → attack → Israel
The real problem, he argues, is that Israel increasingly views Turkey as a strategic adversary and interprets Turkey's capabilities as evidence of hostile intentions.
asserted
Israel → argue → intentions
Al-Sharaa is seeking foreign policy support wherever he can find it, observes Scheller.
asserted
Scheller → seek → it
"In recent months, Turkey has increasingly become one of the countries from which Damascus expects concrete assistance."
asserted
Damascus → become → assistance
This is not just a matter of security: Ankara wants to expand its regional influence and, at the same time, has an interest in maintaining stability along the shared border, she said.
asserted
she → want → border
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
