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· collected 2026-08-25 · by Eddie Pells The Associated Press
The College Football Playoff (CFP) is heading into its third season with a 12-team bracket, and Associated Press has made an early prediction of how it will play out. According to the AP's prediction, Notre Dame is expected to be the top seed, followed by Ohio State, Miami, and Texas. The prediction notes that these teams have strong rosters, with returning players such as Notre Dame's Leonard Moore and Ohio State's Julian Sayin.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-25,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
The playoff that everyone wanted — make that, demanded — is now a fixture in college football.
asserted
everyone → want → football
The latest set of tweaks were made to favor Notre Dame and maybe some mid-level champion of a big-name conference (think, Duke and the ACC last year), while the losers in that calculation are the little guys who see their chances of cracking into the bracket, let alone winning a game or two, grow that much slimmer.
asserted
chances → make → game
Even with the adjustments, as the College Football Playoff heads toward its third season of the 12-team playoff, one thing feels the same: Among all the major sports in America (and maybe the world), it still has the market cornered on the most opaque, least consensus-building way of determining who gets to play for the title.
asserted
who → head → title
It is still a system in which one team’s 10-2 record means something completely different than another team’s 10-2 record (see 2025 versions of Oklahoma and Vanderbilt); in which one team’s loss to another can have a drastically different meaning at the time it happens vs. four months later (see the Miami-Notre Dame fiasco from last year); and in which a weekly rankings show purports to shine a light on where things might fall, but in the end can sow more confusion (see every show last season airing the CFP rankings).
uncertain
things → mean → rankings
All that said, 12 teams will make it into the playoff field, which kicks off with four campus games starting Dec. 18.
asserted
which → say → games
Two will get to Las Vegas to play for the title next Jan. 25.
asserted
Two → get → title
And one will win it all and join Indiana and Ohio State as the third champion of the 12-team-playoff era.
asserted
one → win → era
Here’s a best guess on how things shake out (numbers indicate predicted seed):
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numbers → ’ → seed
The Fighting Irish, runners-up in 2024, bring back most of the team that got left on the bubble and out of the tournament last year despite being ranked 11th.
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that → bring → tournament
The CFP executives fixed that — if Notre Dame is in the top 12, it must get a playoff spot.
asserted
it → fix → spot
But with shutdown CB Leonard Moore and QB C.J. Carr returning, no need to worry about squeaking in.
asserted
Moore → return → ?
Yes, the Buckeyes lost 11 players to the NFL, though that should serve as a reminder of the kind of talent this program brings in.
asserted
program → lose → talent
If the season goes perfectly, QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith could both be in New York in December as finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
uncertain
Sayin → go → Trophy
Last year’s runner-up has the schedule and the players to dampen the impact from a potential Nov. 7 loss to Notre Dame.
asserted
up → have → Dame
Darian Mensah threw for almost 4,000 yards at Duke last year, then left the ACC champs (with five losses) for greener pastures and presumably more bucks.
asserted
Mensah → throw → pastures
No. 4: Texas
It feels like the last bye week available in the CFP for a top four seed will come down to an SEC title game between the Longhorns and Georgia, two teams that haven’t quite lived up to the hype the last few years.
asserted
that → feel → hype
All the buzz at Texas, of course, revolves around Arch Manning, who got lots of help this year to try to make up for last year when the ‘Horns missed the playoff.
asserted
Horns → revolve → playoff
5-8: Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Georgia
The Ducks, with Dante Moore, start at No. 2 in the preseason AP poll this year and could stay there heading into the Nov. 7 game at Ohio State.
uncertain
Ducks → start → State
He better be after the Brandon Sorsby gambling debacle that could undermine an otherwise solid Texas Tech roster.
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that → undermine → roster
It’s what people used to say about Alabama, Florida and every great program in the SEC, which is on a three-year natinoal championship drought.
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which → ’ → drought
Defense travels and QB John Mateer is a stud who can run.
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who → travel → ?
OU’s schedule (at Michigan, at Georgia, vs. Texas) is tough, though that can set you up for success if you win one or two.
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you → set → one
... Reprising the Virginia pick from last year because this is, essentially, the same experienced team that almost won the ACC last year with a similarly weak schedule. ...
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that → reprise → schedule
ESPN said of the 76 all-conference players on last year’s Group of Five rosters (now G6, with the Pac-12) who had eligibility left, only 23 returned to their school.
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23 → say → school
After South Florida leapfrogs five or six teams to make the field of 12, bubble teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU and maybe USC cry foul, ask for reforms and maybe even threaten a lawsuit.
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teams → leapfrog → lawsuit
... After more snubs and Georgia’s fall out of a first-round bye position after losing the conference title game, the SEC might finally go along with a CFP expansion to 24.
uncertain
SEC → lose → 24
How about this prediction: Oklahoma goes on the road to knock out Texas Tech AND Ohio State.
asserted
Oklahoma → go → Tech
... South Florida can’t contend vs. Georgia, furthering the call to push the G6 completely out unless they earn a CFP berth via ranking.
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they → contend → ranking
... Notre Dame falls to Texas in the semifinals at the Sugar Bowl and Oregon earns its spot in the final with a road win over the ‘Canes in the other semifinal at the Orange Bowl.
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Oregon → fall → Bowl
And the winner is ...
Oregon beats Texas 24-20 in Vegas to make it four straight for the Big Ten and land the Ducks that elusive championship.
asserted
it → beat → championship
QB Dante Moore gets the national title trophy after barely losing a different one — the Heisman — to Manning.
asserted
Moore → get → Manning
