If all goes to plan, at some stage in the coming weeks 15 diplomats will emerge from a small sound-proofed room deep in the bowels of the United Nations headquarters in New York and announce the organisation’s next secretary-general.
asserted
diplomats → go → general
The person they choose will face a combination of challenges unlike any that their predecessors have had to deal with.
asserted
predecessors → choose → that
Two of the security council’s permanent members, the US and Russia, are engaged in wars of choice that have no end in sight.
asserted
that → engage → sight
A UN commission of inquiry has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, but the UN has effectively been reduced to the role of bystander, pushed out by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace.
asserted
UN → accuse → Peace
The climate crisis is creating a cascade of new humanitarian disasters, while every day now seems to bring a new security threat caused by the unregulated rise of AI.
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day → create → AI
All of this is happening in a world in which the very principles of the UN – multilateralism, a rules-based order and international law – are under threat.
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principles → happen → threat
Secretary-general elections have rarely been this consequential and conversations about who should win will dominate the sidelines of the UN general assembly this week and next, as world leaders gather for the annual summit.
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leaders → win → summit
The UN, and the world it speaks for, desperately needs a new leader who is both charismatic and competent.
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who → speak → leader
Yet the five permanent members of the security council – the US, UK, France, Russia and China – hold a veto.
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members → hold → veto
Anyone who wants the job will need the approval of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and, most importantly, Trump.
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who → want → Jinping
It is not easy to argue you are best placed to save the UN when the man you need to persuade would rather it fails.
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it → argue → UN
Three informal straw polls have taken place so far and no frontrunner has emerged, indeed opposition to the two leading candidates rose in last Friday’s vote.
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opposition → take → vote
For the first time in the organisation’s 80-year history serious discussions are quietly taking place about what would happen if no secretary-general is chosen at all.
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general → take → place
Ten years ago, the election of António Guterres of Portugal was widely welcomed as a shot in the arm for the UN after a decade of the low-energy leadership of the South Korean Ban Ki-moon.
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election → welcome → moon
In his previous role as the UN’s refugee chief he had been an outspoken activist and had pledged to continue speaking up for the world’s most vulnerable people.
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he → pledge → people
Then, a month later, Trump took office as the US president.
asserted
Trump → take → president
Earlier this year, he announced the US’s withdrawal from 31 UN organisations, including the bodies responsible for dealing with climate change and women’s health, while in July his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, announced the administration’s desire to “dismantle” the international criminal court “brick by brick”.
asserted
secretary → announce → brick
The abrupt closure of the US’s aid and development programme, USAID, led to deaths around the world.
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closure → lead → world
Most controversially, the establishment of Trump’s Board of Peace sparked fears that it could be used to supplant the UN itself.
uncertain
it → spark → UN
The UN meanwhile is in the grip of a financial crisis, with Guterres warning during the summer that it faced “imminent financial collapse” due to unpaid dues, much of it owed by the US.
asserted
it → warn → US
And yet, despite everything, the UN is still standing – and still matters.
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UN → stand → everything
It is only the UN, through its Framework Convention on Climate Change, that manages to focus international attention on the greatest crisis the world is facing.
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world → manage → crisis
The UN’s office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs remains the best hope for negotiating access to deliver aid in war zones, including Sudan.
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office → remain → Sudan
This year the general assembly passed two landmark resolutions: one recognising the transatlantic slave trade as a crime, another to adopt a new world map that correctly recognises Africa’s size.
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that → pass → size
We don’t know what the candidates think of these decisions, nor do we know where they stand on the war in Ukraine or what their stance is on Israel’s actions in Gaza.
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stance → know → Gaza
Part of the reason, of course, is that someone standing on an ambitious platform would stand no chance of getting the job.
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someone → stand → job
UN experts believe there is a chance that the two current frontrunners, Guyana’s former foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s ex vice-president Rebeca Grynspan, might become good secretary-generals.
uncertain
frontrunners → believe → ?
But no one is blown away by the choice on offer.
asserted
one → blow → offer
For Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband, both of whom will be in New York this week at the UN general assembly, there is a choice to be made.
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both → be → assembly
The UK is yet to express a preference, indeed the UK team at the UN is said to be unimpressed with all the candidates.
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team → express → candidates
So far, it’s understood, they have not voted in favour of anyone in the first three straw polls.
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they → understand → polls
The UK and France are both hoping another candidate will emerge.
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candidate → hop → ?
The New York Post reported in July that Trump wanted Fifa president Gianni Infantino to get the job.
asserted
Infantino → report → job
There is next to no chance that would happen, but European diplomats fear a Trump-backed dark horse – possibly one without a diplomatic background – may emerge in the coming weeks.
uncertain
horse → be → weeks
This is, after all, the man who has outsourced his nation’s diplomacy to his son-in-law and a real estate investor.
asserted
who → outsource → law
So far, Trump has said nothing in public, although that may change on Tuesday when he gives his speech at the general assembly.
uncertain
he → say → assembly
Or a social media post spat out at two in the morning could upend the race entirely.
uncertain
post → spit → race
The chances of the “Permanent Five” failing to agree on a name remain slim, but plans are already being drawn up in case the worst happens.
asserted
worst → fail → name
Guterres may be asked to stay on, while another possibility is that a collection of senior UN officials is asked to serve in administrative roles until a candidate is found.
uncertain
candidate → ask → roles
Either way, it would leave the UN rudderless at a time it needs to be anything but.
asserted
it → leave → time
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
