In the final two years of a US presidency, when Congress has been lost, approval ratings have sunk like a stone and their party has started to think about who’s coming next, the person occupying the Oval Office can feel their power draining away.
asserted
power → lose → Office
Domestic legislation, particularly in an era where bipartisan cooperation is almost nonexistent, grinds to a halt.
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cooperation → grind → halt
But as the days tick by until the end, and as presidents begin to think about their legacy, there is one part of the job where they still have power: the rest of the world.
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they → tick → world
In the final weeks of his presidency in 1992 George HW Bush sent 28,000 American troops to Somalia to help end a famine.
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Bush → send → famine
For Bill Clinton, it was a quixotic attempt to bring peace to the Middle East by ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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it → bring → conflict
Barack Obama restored diplomatic ties with Cuba, making a historic visit to Havana, as well as a final, successful push on the Iran nuclear deal.
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Obama → restore → deal
In 10 days, Donald Trump will enter his own twilight zone.
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Trump → enter → zone
He is almost certain to lose control of the House and it’s not impossible he will face a Democratic Senate too.
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he → lose → Senate
Any hopes of passing domestic policy – not that he’s bothered with that much during his first two years – will disappear.
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he → pass → years
Instead, he will face a series of investigations that could lead, once again, to impeachment.
uncertain
that → face → impeachment
Once the midterms are over, the US is understood to be planning to restart its unwinnable war with Iran, already carrying out exercises with the Israeli military and withdrawing diplomats from the region.
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US → understand → region
In the past week he has argued that “Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine”, while his envoy Steve Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, praising him in a televised meeting as a “humanitarian…and I salute that, I commend you and I thank you again.”
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I → argue → you
On top of a reckless war in the Middle East and appeasement in Europe, the shadow of a new world order is emerging, which Trump will relentlessly pursue in his final years.
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Trump → emerge → years
Putin has proposed a summit between himself, Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, to be held in China next month.
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Putin → propose → China
Such an unprecedented meeting, were it to take place, would have potentially devastating consequences for the rest of us.
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it → take → us
The three leaders have ambitions to transform the way the world is governed, essentially dividing it into spheres of influence.
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world → have → influence
One summit wouldn’t turn an idea into reality, but it would send us down a very dangerous path.
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it → turn → path
In Europe, it would have an impact beyond Ukraine if the US refused to help protect nations threatened by Russia.
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US → have → Russia
In east Asia, the withdrawal of the American security blanket would cause enormous problems for Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, as well as Australia.
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withdrawal → cause → Taiwan
We’ve talked a lot about the end of the west over the past two years – this feels like a moment when many of those fears will crystalise.
The Trump administration’s ambition to divide the world into spheres and side with dictators over democrats has long been evident.
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ambition → talk → democrats
But it was what it didn’t say that was most shocking.
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that → say → what
Both Russia and China avoided direct criticism.
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Russia → avoid → criticism
In six paragraphs describing the threat to Taiwan, China was not mentioned once.
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China → describe → Taiwan
Elsewhere in the document, China was actually praised as “rich and powerful … us[ing] its wealth and power to its considerable advantage.”
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China → praise → advantage
The section on Russia’s war in Ukraine failed to mention how it started and did not suggest that Putin should be defeated; instead it focused on how the US could help Europe and Russia mend their relationship.
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Europe → fail → relationship
The 33-page document discussed the importance of the US controlling the western hemisphere, but made clear that so long as the US still had economic dominance, it cared little whether other parts of the world are protected.
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parts → discuss → world
“The affairs of other countries,” it stated, “are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.”
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activities → state → interests
For too long, it argued, America’s allies had “suck[ed] us into conflicts and controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own”.
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allies → argue → own
He has long viewed American support for democracy in eastern Europe and central Asia as “interference” in Russia’s backyard.
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He → view → backyard
Now he has a US president who agrees.
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who → have → president
Trump has also placed Putin on a far higher pedestal than Russia’s economy and its technological prowess deserves.
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economy → place → pedestal
Xi, too, has welcomed the US’s rhetorical retreat from east Asia, particularly if it allows China greater maritime control in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
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it → welcome → Sea
World opinion on China has dramatically improved as that of the US has slid.
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that → improve → US
As Chrystia Freeland, a former Canadian foreign minister, put it this week, “there has not been a president who has been more beneficial for China than Donald Trump”.
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who → put → Trump
All three governments see the possibility of increasing economic ties.
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governments → see → ties
If these three nations begin to work together, at the expense of Europe and the rest of the world, it will fundamentally change the nature of geopolitics.
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it → begin → geopolitics
A decade ago, talk of a multipolar world was based around the idea of the US, China and the European Union as the three most powerful blocs.
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talk → base → blocs
Somehow, Brussels has been replaced by Moscow.
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Brussels → replace → Moscow
Until now, the rest of the west has – on the whole – tried to muddle through.
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rest → try → whole
Nato still exists on paper, G7 and G20 summits may be chaotic but they still take place.
uncertain
they → exist → place
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
