On Sunday, a Russian drone struck a train in Ukraine close to the Polish border.
asserted
drone → strike → border
This latest Russian escalation follows U.S. intelligence warnings that Moscow intended to target Polish-Ukrainian border crossings.
asserted
Moscow → follow → crossings
Senior political figures including former British prime minister Boris Johnson, former CIA director David Petraeus, and the current U.K. national security advisor were on nearby trains during the attack.
asserted
figures → include → attack
Here we see President Vladimir Putin’s escalating terrorist campaign against the West.
asserted
we → see → West
As predicted, Putin’s flailing war on Ukraine has led him to shake up the deck.
asserted
war → predict → deck
Unable to achieve scaled breakthroughs of Ukrainian lines, Putin is suffering growing economic difficulties and public frustration at home.
asserted
Putin → achieve → home
He’s also lost a staggering 500,000 soldiers.
asserted
He → lose → soldiers
This is why Russia’s military intelligence service is once again so focused on terrorizing civilian populations across Europe.
asserted
service → terrorize → Europe
If and until Putin meets physical Western resolve, he’ll keep increasing his intimidatory pressure to isolate Ukraine from its foreign supporters.
asserted
he → meet → supporters
Not all Western powers are made equal.
asserted
powers → make → ?
In pursuing his ambition to subjugate Ukraine and then eastern Europe, Poland confronts Putin with a very heavy obstruction.
asserted
Poland → pursue → obstruction
Indeed, Poland obstructs Putin with a fortress built on history, geography, and raw combat power.
asserted
Poland → obstruct → history
Bordering the Russian military exclave of Kaliningrad to its North, Belarus to its East, and Ukraine to its Southeast, Poland is on the frontline of NATO’s defensive flank.
asserted
Poland → border → flank
In the event of a future Russian invasion of Estonia (a prospect Putin openly flirts with), Poland would be instrumental in preventing Russia (and potentially also Belarus) from cutting off Poland’s 40-mile long “Suwalki Gap” border with Lithuania.
asserted
Poland → flirt → Lithuania
Polish forces would also be crucial to surging reinforcements into the Baltic states to buy time for other NATO forces to arrive.
asserted
forces → surge → time
At the same time, while President Volodymyr Zelensky has sometimes behaved rudely to his Warsaw benefactor, Poland has sustained a critical artery of support for Ukraine.
asserted
Poland → behave → Ukraine
Warsaw knows very personally the threat posed by the dreams of Russian imperialists such as Putin.
asserted
Warsaw → know → Putin
Polish nationalism was brutally subjugated by the Russian empire in the 18th and 19th centuries.
asserted
nationalism → subjugate → centuries
In 1939, the Soviet Union then conspired with Nazi Germany to carve Poland in half.
asserted
Union → conspire → half
Following the end of the Second World War, Poland lived under an oppressive, Soviet Union controlled puppet government until 1989.
asserted
Poland → follow → 1989
This understanding of an enduring Russian threat informs Poland’s defense budget.
asserted
understanding → endure → budget
Even following the war with Ukraine, most NATO member states continued to treat the alliance like an American piggy bank.
asserted
states → follow → bank
Under successive Polish governments since 2015, the country exceeded NATO’s then 2%-of-GDP defense spending target.
asserted
country → exceed → target
But following Russia’s February 2022 full scale invasion of Ukraine, Polish defense spending soared.
asserted
spending → follow → Ukraine
Warsaw will spend 4.8%-of-GDP on defense this year, a far higher percentage than even the U.S. (which will spend approximately 3.3-3.4%-of-GDP).
asserted
which → spend → GDP
And while his force deployments in Europe have sometimes been poorly strategized, President Donald Trump recognizes that Poland is exactly the kind of ally that he has long called for.
asserted
he → strategize → that
Rather than waste its defense budget on personnel spending, as Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Spain do, Poland has invested in combat power.
asserted
Poland → waste → power
The return on that investment is measured in high lethality.
asserted
return → measure → lethality
Today, the Polish Army is centered around heavy armor maneuver formations supported by helicopter gunships and rocket artillery.
asserted
Army → center → gunships
It also benefits from surging integration of a wide range of drone and counter-drone warfare capabilities.
asserted
It → benefit → capabilities
Poland’s Air Force is similarly impressive, boasting well-trained pilots flying a growing force of advanced jets including F-35s.
asserted
Force → boast → F-35s
Even Poland’s long neglected navy is undergoing a major revitalization.
asserted
navy → neglect → revitalization
It will soon boast cutting-edge frigates and submarines that would, in war, help turn the Baltic Sea into a Russian death trap.
asserted
that → boast → trap
They are capable not simply of stopping a future Russian invasion, but taking the fight back to the invader.
asserted
They → stop → invader
Covered by drone, artillery, and air forces, Polish tank units would likely penetrate Russian lines and enable encirclement operations early in any war.
asserted
units → cover → war
They would link up with American, French, British and Polish paratroopers.
asserted
They → link → paratroopers
And unlike their Russian counterparts, Polish field officers would have the authority to exploit enemy tactical failures.
asserted
officers → have → failures
Poland’s military potency also translates into increasingly potent political effects.
asserted
potency → translate → effects
After all, Poland’s military prowess has also embarrassed other NATO member states such as Germany to finally start taking their alliance responsibilities seriously.
asserted
prowess → embarrass → responsibilities
While his response to recent Russian terrorist attacks has been weak, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has enacted major boosts to the German military, for example.
asserted
Merz → enact → example
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
