The article criticizes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's "3-3-3" plan, arguing that it is unrealistic to reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, increase real economic growth to 3%, and expand domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day. The author contends that current data shows the budget deficit at nearly 5.5% of GDP, annualized economic growth around 2%, and an increase in domestic crude oil output of only about 1 million barrels per day. The piece disputes Bessent's argument that sustained faster economic growth alone can solve the fiscal problem without cutting spending or raising revenue.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-17,
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Story summary
Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund executive and current US Treasury Secretary, proposed a "3-3-3" plan during his campaign to reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, lift sustained real GDP growth to 3%, and increase domestic crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day. However, these goals have not been met: the current budget deficit is near 5.5% of GDP, economic growth has been around 2% annually, and domestic oil output has increased by only about 1 million barrels per day. With November’s midterm elections approaching, Bessent now argues that the US can solve its fiscal issues through sustained faster economic growth, but James Rogan, an author critical of this approach, predicts that such rapid growth would require widespread automation, which could pressure public finances due to the need for substantial welfare protections. The federal debt held by the public stands at roughly $31 trillion, matching 100% of GDP, and rising interest rates exacerbate borrowing costs.
Written for “US Deficit Debate” on 2026-09-17,
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During political campaigns, candidates often make promises that sound plausible but prove fanciful in practice.
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that → make → practice
Bessent soon promoted his “3-3-3” plan: reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, lift sustained real GDP growth to 3%, and deregulate energy markets to expand domestic crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
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Bessent → promote → day
As I predicted, reality has fallen well short of those targets.
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reality → predict → targets
Today, the federal budget deficit sits at near 5.5% of GDP.
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deficit → sit → GDP
Economic growth has hovered around a 2% annualized pace, while domestic oil output has climbed by only about 1 million barrels per day.
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output → hover → day
With the November midterm elections fast approaching, Bessent has shifted to a familiar argument: that the United States can painlessly solve the fiscal problem through sustained faster economic growth.
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States → approach → growth
Debt held by the public stands at roughly $31 trillion, matching 100% of GDP.
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Debt → hold → GDP
To compound the challenge, federal borrowing costs have climbed sharply this year.
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costs → compound → challenge
Because the debt-to-GDP ratio is around 100%, each 1% increase in the average interest rate on Treasury debt adds roughly 1% of GDP directly to annual borrowing needs.
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increase → add → needs
Can stronger economic growth actually resolve this fiscal challenge?
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growth → resolve → challenge
Some technology optimists argue that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence could accelerate sustained annual growth to 4–5%.
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breakthroughs → argue → %
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has even suggested that once AI is thoroughly integrated into the economy, mid-teens growth rates are conceivable.
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rates → suggest → economy
Yet such hypergrowth would almost certainly stem from widespread automation of human labor, a disruption voters and policymakers would hardly accept without substantial welfare protections, which would put pressure on public finances.
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which → stem → finances
The hard truth is that outgrowing the current fiscal gap without spending cuts or revenue increases is mathematically improbable.
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outgrowing → outgrow → cuts
While targeted deregulation can lift productivity at the margin, historical precedent and debt arithmetic show why expansion alone cannot close a structural deficit exceeding 5% of GDP.
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expansion → target → GDP
Net interest payments already surpass $1 trillion annually, consuming more than 3% of economic output.
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payments → surpass → output
With effective borrowing rates around 3%, matching that figure with 3% real GDP growth merely stabilizes debt accumulation.
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matching → match → accumulation
It does not bend the curve downward.
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It → bend → curve
Furthermore, the American economy has not averaged 3% growth over any sustained multiyear period since the late 1990s.
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economy → average → 1990s
Sustaining even 3% growth faces formidable structural headwinds: an aging workforce, slowing population growth, and restrictive immigration policies that limit inflows of high-skilled talent.
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that → sustain → talent
Achieving it would require an unprecedented surge in productivity, particularly in lagging sectors such as healthcare, which accounts for nearly a fifth of output.
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which → achieve → output
President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs further dampen productivity momentum by raising the cost of critical capital goods and intermediate inputs.
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tariffs → base → goods
Even under optimistic growth assumptions, spending constraints persist.
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constraints → persist → assumptions
More than 60% of federal outlays fund mandatory programs, predominantly Social Security and Medicare.
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% → fund → programs
Demographic shifts automatically push these obligations higher regardless of top-line economic gains.
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shifts → push → gains
Inflation indexing of such benefits compounds the problem.
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indexing → compound → problem
Faster growth is essential, but it does not solve the problem.
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it → solve → problem
Any credible path toward fiscal stabilization will ultimately require politically difficult choices: broadening the tax base, reforming entitlements, and curbing structural spending rather than relying on fanciful forecasts.
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path → require → forecasts
James Rogan is a former U.S. diplomat who later worked in law and finance for over 30 years.
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who → work → years
He writes a subscription-based daily note on markets, economics, politics, and social issues.
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He → write → markets
His email is [email protected].
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email → protect → ?
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