Tony Burke, Australia's Home Affairs Minister, made a definitive statement during his National Press Club address on Thursday, asserting that the government would not miss its migration targets. This assertion is seen as politically risky given the current net overseas migration figure of 292,000 in the year to March, which exceeds the government’s target of 225,000. The article highlights Burke's pledge amid ongoing pressure from opposition parties to address high migration levels and suggests that his statement could be used against him in political campaigns.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-17,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Welcome back to your weekly federal politics update, where Courtney Gould gets you up to speed on the happenings from Parliament House.
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Tony Burke was most of the way through his long-awaited appearance at the National Press Club when he made one of politics' most cardinal sins: he committed to an absolute.
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"I won't say that because that won't happen," he said on the possibility of the government not reaching its migration targets.
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government → say → targets
The government has been under pressure from the Coalition and One Nation to act on migration.
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government → act → migration
It's possible that with those eight words, he's handed them a campaign ad — and another reason not to reach a legislative compromise.
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he → hand → compromise
It recalled previous rolled gold promises of Labor's: such as shaving $275 off power bills or Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declaring his word was his bond on not touching the stage three tax cuts (which he famously did).
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The home affairs minister was at the Press Club on Thursday to outline a raft of changes that Labor hopes will put a squeeze on net overseas migration.
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While it's fallen from its peak in mid-2023, when international borders reopened after COVID, it's still well above the government's targets.
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An hour before Burke stood up, the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed that figure was currently sitting at 292,000 in the year to March.
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Back in 2001, the Liberal prime minister John Howard declared "we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come".
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Burke's speech had echoes of that sentiment in its title: The Work of Managing the Migration Program: Who Arrives, Who Stays, Who Leaves.
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Asked about that comparison, Burke responded that he wasn't afraid of the word "sovereignty".
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He also did not shy away from a desire to increase the government's ability to detain and remove people who remain in Australia after their visas have expired.
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The plan is to target overstayers and temporary visa holders, including international students and their families.
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A ballot system will be introduced for working holiday visa holders who want to stay in Australia longer than a year.
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All of it will have to be enacted through ministerial direction or regulation, not legislation, after hopes of an agreement between the Coalition were dashed.
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Burke indicated he would've gone further if he had the opposition's support.
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Six weeks ago, the ABC broke the story that Burke had abruptly cancelled his planned address.
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At the time my colleague Tom Crowley reported the home affairs minister was due to unveil an expansion in the use of ballots for working holiday makers.
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Cabinet disagreements were downplayed as the weeks passed without a settled agreement.
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Then, on Wednesday, came confirmation the policy was to be dropped (conveniently the day before the PM jets off to the United States — more on that shortly).
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One Nation has its own migration plan
Burke wasn't the only one selling migration policy this week.
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One Nation beat the government to the punch in revealing its own plan.
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The minor party promised to cut Australia's stock of 3 million temporary visas by 750,000 and place a hard cap on student visas and stop much needed skilled migrants from bringing their partners and kids with them.
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Business groups warned it would cause a COVID-like shock to the economy.
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Hanson argued it was worth it.
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Treasury spokesperson Barnaby Joyce doesn't think voters give a toss about what economists think.
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Burke was keen to distance his plan from One Nation's, most importantly on family visas for skills migrants — 50 per cent of doctors bring their families, 66 per cent of nurses.
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But it's interesting to note they do have one thing in common: removing the option for people on student visas to access the family reunion program (although Labor is offering some exemptions).
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So where does the Coalition stand?
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Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonno Duniam is likely counting the weeks until he bids farewell to the federal parliament but wants the policy settled before he does so.
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But wherever the opposition lands, Duniam vowed it would be modelled.
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Pauline Hanson may have had the jump on the government and Coalition when it comes to migration, but she spent much of the week dealing with the issue of resurfaced podcast interviews.
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First, it was remarks about Albanese's dead mother, Maryanne, who had chronic rheumatoid arthritis and spent much of her life in social housing.
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Hanson declared on Karl Stefanovic's podcast back in February that was "not on".
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When the remarks were published over the weekend, a tearful Albanese told reporters he was "stunned".
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Hanson was also widely condemned after a podcast interview in which she called Indigenous Australians "the most primitive race on earth" came to light.
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Politicians from across the divide swiftly rebuked the comments.
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Indigenous Australians Minister Malarndirri McCarthy said they were "derogatory" and "completely racist" and urged her to apologise.
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A day later, the One Nation leader walked into the News24 studios to express regrets.
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…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
