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In the autumn of 2007, Gordon Brown was on the precipice of calling a snap general election.
asserted
Brown → see → election
Campaign material had been printed.
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material → print → ?
Some 100 slots had been booked at Battersea’s heliport to dispatch senior ministers to far-flung marginal constituencies.
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slots → book → constituencies
Hundreds of activists were told to be ready to take up their posts within Labour’s dedicated ‘election hub’ on 24 hours’ notice.
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Hundreds → tell → notice
But the call to arms never came.
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call → come → arms
Aware of Brown’s plan – one that would see them consigned to inevitable defeat – George Osborne and David Cameron launched a desperate, final, holding action.
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Osborne → see → action
In his conference speech, Osborne declared that on becoming Chancellor he would raise the Inheritance Tax threshold to £1million.
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he → declare → 1million
‘Only millionaires will pay inheritance tax’, he proudly proclaimed.
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he → pay → tax
The policy immediately resonated.
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policy → resonate → ?
A poll conducted in the days after the announcement saw a significant bounce in the Tories’ ratings in marginal constituencies.
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poll → conduct → constituencies
And a few days later, Brown sheepishly ordered the election plan shelved.
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plan → order → ?
The indecision saw his personal poll rating enter a tailspin from which he never recovered.
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he → see → which
As a new Tory party conference approaches, Kemi Badenoch has the opportunity to make a similarly historic, and potentially game-changing, political announcement.
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Badenoch → approach → announcement
At the weekend my colleague Gabriel Millard-Clothier exclusively revealed in The Mail on Sunday that the Tory leader was contemplating scrapping Inheritance Tax entirely.
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leader → reveal → Tax
Officially, Badenoch would only confirm: ‘I’ve asked my team to explore fiscally responsible ways to address this burden.’
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I → confirm → burden
But, off the record, her aides made clear it is something she is seriously contemplating.
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she → make → record
‘When she announced the abolition of stamp duty in last year’s speech, it was the moment her personal approval rating began to turn,’ an ally told me.
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ally → announce → me
‘We think a big policy announcement like this could potentially have the same impact for the party as a whole.
uncertain
announcement → think → whole
It’s a way of communicating, “OK, the traditional, solid, tax-cutting Tory party really is back”.
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party → ’ → ?
Which is why Kemi Badenoch should tell her team to finish their exploration, get back to base camp and have a finalised policy ready in time for her conference speech next month.
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policy → tell → speech
At the weekend Gabriel Millard-Clothier exclusively revealed in The Mail on Sunday that the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was contemplating scrapping Inheritance Tax entirely
There is currently a policy vacuum sitting at the heart of British politics.
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leader → reveal → politics
Andy Burnham began his premiership by stating that we would have to wait until ‘later this year’ to hear his ten-year plan for the nation.
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we → begin → nation
And, like the Chief in the Asterix comics who fears the sky may fall on his head tomorrow but reassures himself with the fact that tomorrow never actually comes, ‘later this year’ is proving to be an elastic deadline.
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tomorrow → fear → fact
Badenoch has a golden opportunity to fill that Burnham-shaped void with a stance that is bold, radical and populist.
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that → have → stance
She also has an opportunity to put some distance between herself and a Prime Minister who seems increasingly intent on leaning heavily on his party’s socialist traditions.
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who → have → traditions
Perhaps even more crucially, she has an opportunity to define herself against the political threat to her Right.
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she → have → Right
This week has been dominated by the row over Reform’s acceptance of a combined £72million donation from two British crypto billionaires recently based abroad.
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week → dominate → billionaires
One would expect a party that aspired to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition to an old-school, tax-and-spend Labour government would have recognised and embraced a policy that sought to reduce the tax burden on hard-working families.
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that → expect → families
Instead, the party’s treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick made the incomprehensible statement that he believed the plan was ‘morally wrong’.
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plan → make → statement
It was, he said, ‘a tax cut predominantly for the well-off’.
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he → say → off
Had Jenrick simply dismissed the proposal as something that did not align with Reform’s current fiscal priorities, that would have been one thing.
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that → dismiss → priorities
But to claim there is something inherently immoral in people simply aspiring to pass on more of their wealth to their children was a staggering assertion.
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claim → claim → children
And one that is likely to cost him and his party dear.
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that → cost → dear
Because despite the denials, the plan taking shape inside Downing Street is clear.
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plan → take → Street
Burnham is preparing to call a snap election in the spring of next year.
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Burnham → prepare → year
And, based on the current trajectory of the polls, he will almost certainly win it.
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he → base → it
Reform’s collapse in support is accelerating.
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collapse → accelerate → support
This time last year the party stood at 31 per cent in the polls, 11 points ahead of Labour and 14 points ahead of the Tories.
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party → stand → Tories
Now they are two points behind Labour, a slender 4 points ahead of the Conservatives, and trending downwards.
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they → trend → Conservatives
In just over a year, they have lost a third of their support, all at a time when Keir Starmer’s premiership was imploding.
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premiership → lose → time
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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