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Stay or leave? Ukrainians face a hard choice ahead of what could be the war’s toughest winter

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Cite

Arhirova, H., & Stepanenko, V. (2026, November 12). Stay or leave? Ukrainians face a hard choice ahead of what could be the war’s toughest winter. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/world/europe/stay-or-leave-ukrainians-face-a-hard-choice-ahead-of-what-could-be-the-war-s-toughest-winter/article_d35ebbdf-854c-5f58-9ec5-c130432d70da.html

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-11-12 · by Hanna Arhirova, Vasilisa Stepanenko

Quick Summary

Ukrainians are facing difficult decisions as they prepare for what is expected to be the most challenging winter since the start of the war, with many choosing to leave Kyiv due to frequent air raids and potential energy disruptions. Matvii Yermolenko’s mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, decided to move her 2-year-old son out of Kyiv for safety reasons but plans to return in spring, reflecting the emotional struggle many are experiencing. Meanwhile, rental market data suggests that people are increasingly moving from Kyiv to western Ukraine or abroad, as Russia continues its attacks on critical civilian infrastructure like gas stations and data centers.
Written by AI on 2026-11-12, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Ukrainians are facing tough decisions as they prepare for what could be the most challenging winter since the start of the war with Russia. In Kyiv, Matvii Yermolenko, a 2-year-old boy, already understands terms like "siren" and "air defense." His mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, decided to take him out of the city for safety reasons, despite her deep connection to Ukraine. She plans to return in spring.

Russia has intensified its attacks on Kyiv, targeting critical infrastructure such as gas stations, data centers, warehouses, and bridges that are vital for civilian transport across the Dnieper River. This winter, officials fear that the damaged energy system will struggle even more under sustained attacks, potentially leaving thousands without heat again. As of August 22, every day in Kyiv has seen air raid threats, often followed by drone or missile strikes.

Many residents are evacuating to other parts of Ukraine or abroad for the winter months, as the war shows no signs of ending soon. The exact number of people who will leave is difficult to determine, but the situation underscores the ongoing hardships faced by Ukrainians during this prolonged conflict.

Written for “Winter Challenges in Ukraine War” on 2026-11-13, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Al Jazeera
Centre further right than this Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Ukraine's situation but describe distinct events and contexts.”
BBC News
Leans left Hedges 1 of 63 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss the challenges faced by Ukrainians during a tough winter and potential power outages, they describe different aspects of the situation from distinct individual perspectives.”

Story

Winter Challenges in Ukraine War
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
60
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
12%
7 of 60 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-12 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 13722 article(s) · 29 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 29 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Hanna Arhirova
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
“There is sadness, but even stronger is the understanding of what I have to do — leave,” Matvii’s mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, said, adding that they will come back in spring.
With the ceasefire over, residents will again face drones, artillery, glide bombs and airdropped mines.
The White House said U.S. first lady Melania Trump helped to broker the limited truce, which began early Tuesday and is expected to end Sunday evening.
Around half of the drones were heading to the Russian capital, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.
“It will be very hard if what we had comes back,” she said.
The localised truce in the devastated southern city of Oleshky began on Tuesday and is expected to run until Sunday.
He suggested, though, that the owner of the system — Musk — may have been involved.
Kushner, who is U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, will attend the meeting by videoconference.
The 40-year-old former hairdresser walked for 20 kilometres (12 miles) along the partially mined route, terrified that "every step could have been my last," she said.
So the 40-year-old former hairdresser walked — for 20 kilometers (12 miles), along the partially mined road — fearing that “every step could have been my last,” she said.
Also by Hanna Arhirova
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Hanna Arhirova →
Vasilisa Stepanenko
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
“There is sadness, but even stronger is the understanding of what I have to do — leave,” Matvii’s mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, said, adding that they will come back in spring.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

KYIV Russia Ukraine Ukrainian Ukrainians

Subjects

KYIV GPE · 10× Russia GPE · 4× Ukraine GPE · 4× Matvii PERSON · 3× Kateryna Tsvihun PERSON · 2× Ukrainian NORP · 2× Ukrainians NORP · 2× LUN ORG · 1× Liudmyla Kiriukhina PERSON · 1× Matvii Yermolenko PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Exploiting its advantage in jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, Russia has expanded its targets in the city to include gas stations, data centers, warehouses, big-box stores and bridges that are crucial for civilian transport in a city divided by the Dnieper River.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-12
“There is sadness, but even stronger is the understanding of what I have to do — leave,” Matvii’s mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, said, adding that they will come back in spring.

Claims (60 extracted, 7 hedged)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Matvii Yermolenko is 2, but he already knows the words for siren and air defense. asserted
he → know → defense
This winter, his mother decided to take him out of Kyiv. asserted
mother → decide → Kyiv
“There is sadness, but even stronger is the understanding of what I have to do — leave,” Matvii’s mother, Kateryna Tsvihun, said, adding that they will come back in spring. asserted
they → be → spring
“I cannot live without Kyiv and Ukraine. asserted
I → live → Kyiv
I am rooted here, my child is Ukrainian, and my husband is fighting for this. asserted
husband → root → this
Ukrainians are bracing for what many expect to be the hardest winter of the war. asserted
many → brace → war
Last year, heating disruptions left thousands of people in freezing apartments in Kyiv. asserted
disruptions → leave → Kyiv
Now, officials and analysts say, the badly damaged energy system is increasingly struggling to withstand attacks, putting the country’s resilience to another test. asserted
system → say → test
With no end to the war in sight, many people are thinking only about getting through the coming months. asserted
people → think → months
Since Aug. 22, not a single day has passed in the capital without an air raid threat, often followed by drone attacks during the day and missiles at night. asserted
day → pass → night
Some residents have moved to other parts of the country or abroad for the winter. asserted
residents → move → winter
While it’s impossible to calculate how many people left the capital, changes in the rental market offer a possible clue. asserted
changes → ’ → clue
“In September, we saw that the number of flats available to rent was increasing in Kyiv, whilst it was decreasing in a number of western cities,” Liudmyla Kiriukhina, the head of the statistics department at LUN, a Ukrainian real estate platform, said. asserted
Kiriukhina → see → LUN
“This could have indicated that tenants were moving from the capital to the west of the country. uncertain
tenants → indicate → country
Exploiting its advantage in jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, Russia has expanded its targets in the city to include gas stations, data centers, warehouses, big-box stores and bridges that are crucial for civilian transport in a city divided by the Dnieper River. asserted
that → exploit → River
Electricity disruptions have caused problems on the subway, Kyiv’s main transport artery, while water supply issues are increasingly common. asserted
issues → cause → subway
Some residents have also criticized local authorities’ winter preparations. asserted
residents → criticize → preparations
But leaving costs money, and many more are staying, stocking up on power banks, water containers and portable gas stoves. asserted
many → leave → banks
Protecting their children, some Ukrainians leave for the winter Kateryna Tsvihun, 41, found last winter very difficult. asserted
Tsvihun → protect → winter
She could not bear the thought of her son going through more power outages, let alone possibly losing heating as well. uncertain
son → bear → heating
So she told her husband, a soldier since 2022, that she wanted to spend this winter elsewhere. asserted
she → tell → winter
She could not find a suitable option in Ukraine, but a Facebook group for mothers who like to travel led her to one in Albania. uncertain
who → find → Albania
“The birth of a child is the ultimate game-changer,” she said. asserted
she → say → child
“Before, no matter how scared I was, I stayed in Kyiv and did not even think about leaving.” asserted
I → stay → Kyiv
Russia recently struck an area near a subway station where she and Matvii often go for walks. asserted
she → strike → walks
“It’s a bit scary to stay,” she said. asserted
she → ’ → ?
“But it’s still our home, so we will come back this spring.” asserted
we → ’ → ?
She gave her portable power station, power banks and rechargeable lamps to relatives staying in the capital. asserted
She → give → capital
For the trip, she bought a large, light-blue suitcase, packing only with practical things and a few of Matvii’s small toys. asserted
she → buy → toys
“I see it as an opportunity to exhale, because the tiredness and pressure have been piling up over these years of war, the lonely waiting for my husband, and the attacks,” she said. asserted
she → see → husband
Official says Russia aims to break Kyiv’s morale Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said Wednesday that Russia had continued to attack power generation facilities and substations. asserted
Russia → say → facilities
“Attacks on the energy sector are not stopping,” it said in a statement. asserted
it → stop → statement
“The situation in Kyiv is especially difficult right now: People and businesses are facing many hours of electricity and water outages,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. asserted
Zelenskyy → face → outages
Repeated strikes and constant air raid alerts are making repairs take much longer, he said. asserted
he → make → ?
“This winter could be just as hard, or even harder than the last one,” Andrii Tkachov, acting head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said. uncertain
Tkachov → act → Administration
“The enemy will keep striking critical infrastructure and trying to disrupt residents’ heating and water supply.” asserted
enemy → keep → supply
He said Russia’s aim is to create a crisis and humanitarian and social tensions in the capital, Ukraine’s most populous city and the seat of its main state institutions. asserted
aim → say → institutions
“The enemy understands that attacks on Kyiv will affect the morale of the entire country. asserted
attacks → understand → country
The main goal is to break Kyiv,” Tkachov said. asserted
Tkachov → break → Kyiv
“But, as we say, Kyiv rests on three pillars: air defense, our utility and energy workers, and the self-organization of its residents.” asserted
Kyiv → say → residents
…and 20 more, not listed.
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