The 2026 midterm's astounding election results not only shift control of Congress but also portend two years of hostility with President Donald Trump.
asserted
results → shift → Trump
The blue tsunami also threatens the independence of the Supreme Court.
asserted
tsunami → threaten → Court
As Democrats exercise their newfound power in the legislature and build on their majorities in years to come, they will try to interfere with the workings of basic American institutions.
asserted
they → exercise → institutions
Of these promised "reforms," expanding the Supreme Court may pose the greatest threat to the American system of limited government and natural rights.
uncertain
expanding → promise → government
The Democrats’ landslide victory is hard to overstate.
asserted
victory → overstate → ?
As many political observers predicted for a midterm election during a president’s second term, Democrats took control of the House from the governing party.
asserted
Democrats → predict → party
But few foresaw the force of the rejection of President Trump and the Republican Party.
asserted
few → foresee → Trump
With 24 races still to be called, Democrats have won 254 seats, surpassing the 218 needed for a majority, with Republicans left with only 157.
asserted
Republicans → call → 157
Democrats flipped at least seven Senate seats, giving them a 54-44 majority; Democratic challengers narrowly lead the Republican incumbents in the other two races.
asserted
challengers → flip → races
What was equally amazing was that Democratic victories came in Republican strongholds, such as Kansas (where a Democrat had not won in a century), Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, and Ohio.
asserted
Democrat → come → century
Conservatives are panicking that the shift in control of the Senate will threaten their majority on the Supreme Court.
asserted
shift → panic → Court
Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush appointed three of the justices (Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito), while President Trump appointed three more (Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett).
asserted
Trump → appoint → three
Presidents Obama and Biden, meanwhile, appointed three (Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson).
asserted
Obama → appoint → three
This 6-3 majority, unified generally by an originalist approach to constitutional interpretation, has delivered some of the highest priorities on the conservative wish list: the overruling of Roe v. Wade and the return of the abortion question to the states; the declaration of the Second Amendment’s individual right to possess firearms; and the end of racial preferences in government programs and university admissions.
asserted
majority → unify → programs
The change in Senate control in January means that no conservative justice is likely to retire until 2028.
asserted
justice → mean → 2028
The problem, simply put, is time.
asserted
problem → put → ?
For justices appointed since 1980, the average age at retirement or death in office is 79.8 years.
asserted
age → appoint → office
If Thomas or Alito were to leave office over the next two years, which would be in keeping with that average, the Democratic majority would be unlikely to confirm their successors.
asserted
majority → leave → successors
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has already set a precedent of not filling a Supreme Court vacancy in the last year of a presidential term — he did not allow a Senate vote to fill the 2016 vacancy created by Justice Antonin Scalia’s death.
asserted
he → set → death
It would be a small political jump — though a serious change in Senate norms — for Democrats to extend that period to two years.
asserted
Democrats → extend → years
The change in Senate control in January means that no conservative justice is likely to retire until 2028.
asserted
justice → mean → 2028
In the interest of full disclosure, I served as a law clerk to Justice Thomas in 1994-95, and I do not want him to ever retire.
asserted
him → serve → 1994
Indeed, I would be shocked if he left office while he could physically perform the duties of the office.
uncertain
he → leave → office
The political changes launched by the midterm elections could make matters worse for conservatives.
uncertain
matters → launch → conservatives
The betting odds are that Democrats will win the 2028 presidential election.
asserted
Democrats → win → election
An incumbent party usually loses at the end of its president’s second term in office.
asserted
party → lose → office
Putting aside the unique control of the Virginia dynasty from President Thomas Jefferson through James Monroe, a two-term presidency has only been succeeded by a president of the same party twice: Martin Van Buren and George H.W. Bush.
asserted
presidency → put → party
Both examples reflected the popularity and success of the departing incumbents, Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan.
asserted
examples → reflect → incumbents
If anything, last week’s tallies reveal Trump’s deep unpopularity.
asserted
tallies → reveal → unpopularity
It would require an unprecedented election to beat this historical pattern and return a Republican to the presidency in 2028.
asserted
It → require → 2028
And even if Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio were to win, they would likely still face a Democratic Senate, which would narrow, if not completely eliminate, their ability to appoint a committed originalist to the Supreme Court.
asserted
which → win → Court
The prospect of Democratic control of the Senate and possibly the presidency for the next six years has prompted short-term maneuvering to install a young originalist on the Court during the lame-duck congressional session over the next few weeks.
uncertain
prospect → prompt → weeks
Justice Alito, however, has publicly declared he will not retire this year, and, as I have said, I would be shocked if Justice Thomas were to even entertain the idea.
asserted
Thomas → declare → idea
The idea that President Trump could persuade either justice to retire in favor of a younger replacement is more characteristic of inside-the-Beltway politicking than of serious long-term political thinking.
uncertain
Trump → persuade → thinking
Focusing on the justices’ ages and retirement dates distracts from the much more serious threat to the Court.
asserted
Focusing → focus → Court
If the Democrats were to build on their majorities and win the presidential election in 2028, we may well see not just different faces on the bench — we may see an entirely different kind of Court altogether.
uncertain
we → build → Court
Almost every leading Democrat demands "reform" of the Supreme Court by expanding its size from nine to 13 or more justices.
asserted
Democrat → lead → justices
Several members of the House and Senate, such as Rep. Jerry Nadler and Sen. Adam Schiff, have introduced bills to add more justices.
asserted
members → introduce → justices
Leading presidential candidates, such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. have blessed the idea of court-packing.
asserted
candidates → lead → packing
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., expressed the feelings of left-wing Democrats well: "We need to expand this morally bankrupt court from nine to 13."
asserted
We → express → 13
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
