Nearly 10 months after Mark Carney jolted the world with his rupture speech at Davos, Canadians are still experiencing a rupture of their own over what that means.
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that → jolt → what
Domestically, I’d argue there are actually two.
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I → argue → ?
On the one side are the “Elbows Up” Canadians, for whom Donald Trump’s trade war has become something larger than a trade dispute.
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war → become → dispute
It’s about sovereignty, identity, and whether Canada can ever trust its closest neighbour again.
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Canada → ’ → neighbour
Carney’s declaration that the old international order isn’t coming back has given political expression to that sentiment.
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order → come → sentiment
This constituency overlaps with the older, traditionally Liberal voters who have rallied around Carney and the flag.
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who → overlap → Carney
Polling consistently shows Baby Boomers are more supportive of the prime minister and more inclined to blame Trump for our country’s economic frustrations.
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Boomers → show → frustrations
On the other side are critics who see themselves as economic realists, recognizing that no amount of patriotic enthusiasm can overcome geography.
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amount → see → geography
The Elbows Up movement, they argue, is naive at best, and counterproductive and needlessly anti-American at worst.
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they → argue → ?
People hold Elbows Up signs during a rally in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sunday, March 9, 2025.
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People → hold → Sunday
But there’s a second, lesser-known rupture in Canadian thinking that this familiar debate risks overlooking.
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debate → ’ → that
It runs not between the new nationalists and the realists, but within the realist camp itself.
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It → run → camp
The other realists
In Western Canada, particularly Alberta, I’m seeing a different kind of conditional support for Carney’s diversification agenda.
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I → see → agenda
These aren’t necessarily Liberals, or even people who particularly like the Liberal Party.
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who → like → Party
Many are business leaders and market-oriented conservatives who have spent years arguing for precisely the things Carney is now putting at the centre of his economic strategy.
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Carney → orient → strategy
Pipelines, LNG, trade corridors, ports, electricity grids—and more importantly, the gradual disentanglement of regulations that have made getting major projects built such an ordeal, leaving the West feeling increasingly boxed in over the past decade.
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projects → make → decade
This group doesn’t believe Canada can divorce itself from the American economy—quite the opposite.
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Canada → believe → economy
They understand how commodities are traded and the consequences of being overwhelmingly dependent on a single buyer.
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commodities → understand → buyer
A barrel of Alberta oil sold to an Asian customer doesn’t mean one fewer barrel going to an American refinery.
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barrel → sell → refinery
Access to competing markets can improve pricing, reduce vulnerability to disruptions, and create opportunities for more production.
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Access → compete → production
Perhaps no one embodies this pragmatism better than Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
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one → embody → Smith
Through her many appearances alongside Carney, she has shown little reluctance to cooperate with a Liberal prime minister when their economic priorities align.
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priorities → show → minister
Yet no one would mistake her for an anti-American nationalist.
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one → mistake → nationalist
For Smith, and many in Alberta’s business community, the opportunity presented by Trump’s trade war is about finally getting all of Canada to move on projects we should’ve moved years ago.
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we → present → projects
I’ve lost count of how often I’ve heard some version of “I can’t believe I’m thanking Trump” for creating the political room to pursue resource development and global market access without the usual hand-wringing from the rest of the country.
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I → lose → country
And this is where the second rupture becomes especially interesting.
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rupture → become → ?
The disagreement isn’t necessarily about whether Carney is right that the old relationship with America has fundamentally changed.
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relationship → change → America
It’s about what we as Canadians should do with the opening that claim creates.
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claim → ’ → opening
For some realists, Carney’s diversification ambition is a distraction from repairing the relationship that matters most to Canadian prosperity.
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that → repair → prosperity
That argument resonates especially in Central Canada, where manufacturing has absorbed much of the pain of Trump’s tariffs.
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manufacturing → resonate → tariffs
For deeply integrated industries like autos, replacing American customers and supply chains is anything but straightforward.
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replacing → integrate → customers
Where else are we supposed to sell all those vehicles and parts designed and optimized for the North American market?
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we → suppose → market
At the risk of oversimplifying an entire industry, it’s not as though European and Asian consumers are lining up to buy our pickup trucks.
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consumers → oversimplify → trucks
What they do want is our oil and LNG, wheat and canola, potash, uranium, and critical minerals.
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want → want → What
These are commodities traded in global markets, where access to more buyers can mean better prices and more opportunities for producers here at home.
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access → trade → home
So Westerners, who have been relatively insulated from the trade war, are asking why we can’t do both—repair the American relationship and expand access to everyone else.
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we → ask → everyone
Or as they say in improv—yes, and.
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they → say → improv
The West has always wanted to liberalize trade
This isn’t a new argument.
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This → want → trade
More than a century ago, Western farmers pushed for freer trade with the U.S. against a tariff structure that protected Central Canadian manufacturers.
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that → push → manufacturers
That tension helped define the 1911 election, when Wilfrid Laurier’s Liberals campaigned on reciprocity with our neighbour to the south, while Robert Borden’s Conservatives opposed the deal, warning that closer economic integration threatened Canadian sovereignty.
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integration → define → sovereignty
…and 38 more, not listed.
The Aporia
