There is a saying in politics: “Every election is fundamentally about the next one.”
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election → be → one
On November 3, the Republican Party suffered what some have labelled a near “extinction-level” loss in the 2026 midterms.
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some → suffer → midterms
With the results likely to offer an indication of what lies ahead in the next presidential election, what options do Republicans have for 2028?
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Republicans → offer → 2028
First, we need to understand why this latest “blue tsunami” occurred.
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tsunami → need → ?
Last Tuesday’s outcome reflected voters holding Trump responsible for economic disaster, huge increases in the cost of living, his failing war on Iran, and his catering to Israel.
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Trump → reflect → Israel
It is also a condemnation of the Trump family using the Oval Office to enrich themselves and their friends to an unprecedented degree.
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family → use → degree
Coming into the midterms, voters saw the Trump administration as corrupt and as having abandoned the populist grassroots that had helped him get elected in the first place.
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him → come → place
A bad economy, failed tariffs, and an unwanted war widened the gap between the MAGA loyalists – who remain loyal to Trump as a political figure – and the America First factions of the Republican Party, which remain loyal to the values that Trump had campaigned on but failed to deliver.
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Trump → widen → that
It was the separation of these two groups, once seen as interchangeable, that ultimately destroyed the Trump coalition, which had brought Trump and the Republicans to power in Washington.
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which → see → Washington
During the latest midterms, we witnessed many prominent voices in the conservative movement openly oppose Republican leaders.
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voices → witness → leaders
Popular conservatives such as Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene spoke out publicly against several Republican candidates, including Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ken Paxton in Texas.
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conservatives → speak → Texas
Former Trump supporter Nick Fuentes advocated for months for his followers to vote for Democrats.
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followers → advocate → Democrats
Their argument was that Trump had betrayed America First principles and could no longer be trusted.
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Trump → betray → principles
Many former grassroots Trump voters who had supported him because of his economic agenda and because he had said that he wanted “no more wars” had suffered greatly due to the increasing cost of living and job losses.
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he → support → living
In the end, Trump lost support among young voters, Hispanic and Latino voters, Black men, and suburban and independent voters.
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Trump → lose → voters
These results put the Republican Party at a critical juncture, leaving many to wonder what vision the party will have in 2028.
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party → put → 2028
Should they focus more on the post-Trump era, leaving Trump behind, or double down on his original agenda and rebuild his coalition to stay relevant?
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they → focus → coalition
There are two major forces at play here: Trump himself, as a powerful figure, and the Republican establishment that wants to regain control of the party and stay relevant.
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that → be → party
Many observers conflate these two forces, while others believe that Trump reinvented the party and became the establishment in the process.
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Trump → conflate → process
While Trump is still the most powerful person in the Republican Party, and his broader political operation has many hundreds of millions of dollars to support his agenda, he was never the establishment.
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he → have → agenda
The traditional Republican establishment includes institutional donor networks, former party leaders, Reaganite think tanks, and corporate lobbying groups that accepted Trump’s reign while he was delivering on judges and tax cuts, but never truly accepted his populist takeover.
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he → include → takeover
The midterm results have given a boost to the more traditional power structures to attempt, again, to “take their party back”.
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results → give → party
The establishment is counting particularly on the fact that the Trump coalition has weakened considerably and will be hard to regenerate.
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coalition → count → fact
They think Trump is likely to focus his fundraising efforts on himself – in the form of building his presidential library – rather than helping new candidates.
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Trump → think → candidates
On the grassroots side, Republican voters feel betrayed after Trump’s poor handling of the Epstein scandal, unprecedented political profiteering and corruption allegations, and the war on Iran.
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voters → feel → Iran
Since these midterms were a referendum on how unpopular Trump has become, this leaves the Republican Party with two primary options: rebuild the Trump coalition or prepare themselves for a post-Trump conservative party.
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this → become → party
The key question now is how Republican candidates can distance themselves from Trump while at the same time attempting to rebuild his winning voter base.
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candidates → distance → base
Walking this tightrope will mean finding a way to bring MAGA and America First back together again.
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Walking → walk → MAGA
This may seem like an impossible task in the current political climate, but it is hard to imagine any other winning scenario.
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it → seem → scenario
Vice President JD Vance seemed to be the heir apparent with the strongest prospects prior to the recent midterms.
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Vance → seem → midterms
Vance is powerful in terms of his proximity to Trump and the support he can garner from MAGA and wealthy donors in the tech industry.
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he → garner → industry
He also has ties to the America First crowd.
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He → have → crowd
Turning Point USA endorsed him publicly a year ago.
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USA → endorse → him
Tucker Carlson, with his large following, still supports Vance.
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Carlson → support → Vance
On the other hand, Vance will have a hard time distancing himself from the Trump administration’s failures on the economy, immigration, and the war on Iran.
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Vance → have → Iran
Vance will have to walk a fine line, criticising Trump enough to distance himself from bad policies while not losing support from the hardcore MAGA base, which is likely to retaliate if it feels left behind.
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it → have → base
If Vance refuses to criticise Trump altogether, we will likely see a repeat of the Kamala Harris-Joe Biden scenario.
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we → refuse → scenario
One of Vance’s major weaknesses when it comes to electability is that he is not an establishment figure himself.
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he → come → electability
He faced a difficult race for the US Senate in Ohio in 2022.
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He → face → 2022
Trump chose him in 2024 as his running mate due to his ties to the tech billionaires and to challenge the Republican establishment.
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Trump → choose → establishment
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
