President Donald Trump got one of the rarest things in American politics: a second chance.
asserted
Trump → get → politics
In this month’s midterm elections, voters rendered the verdict that he blew it.
asserted
he → render → it
While his second, nonconsecutive term is not over, Trump is running out of time to change their minds — and Republicans are starting to look past him for something new.
This wasn’t just a typical midterm election in which the party in power grows complacent while the other party’s base is hyper-engaged and ready to take out any incumbent within voting distance.
asserted
base → run → distance
This went much deeper than the purple-state races and swing congressional districts, of which there were relatively few.
asserted
This → go → which
Democrats struck at the core of the Republican majority in states that had voted for Trump by double digits just two years ago, including places where the GOP has dominated for decades.
asserted
GOP → strike → decades
They flipped at least seven Senate seats and are headed toward a net gain of at least 40 House seats, with the Associated Press calling both chambers for the Democrats by the early morning hours of Nov. 4.
asserted
Press → flip → Nov.
The chairman of the House GOP campaign arm, Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), lost his seat.
asserted
chairman → lose → seat
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), one of just three House Republicans representing a Hillary Clinton-won district to be reelected in the 2018 wave, was defeated.
asserted
Fitzpatrick → represent → wave
South Carolina elected its first Democratic senator since 1998.
asserted
Carolina → elect → 1998
Texas did the same for the first time since 1988.
asserted
Texas → do → 1988
Kansas sent a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1932.
asserted
Kansas → send → 1932
These are states Republicans can win if they turn out their voters and get them to pull the correct lever.
asserted
them → win → lever
Three socialist, or at least socialist-adjacent, candidates were elected to the Senate, and a fourth came awfully close.
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fourth → elect → Senate
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), whose state narrowly averted the Republican disaster that unfolded almost everywhere else, said afterward that it was insufficient to describe the drubbing as a blue wave or tsunami.
asserted
it → avert → wave
He likened it to a “meteor strike,” a characterization that sits easily alongside the “thumpin’” George W. Bush’s GOP endured in 2006 or the “shellacking” experienced by Barack Obama’s Democrats in 2010.
asserted
GOP → liken → 2010
The polls were so favorable to Democrats in the run-up to the election that the pollsters themselves didn’t believe them.
asserted
pollsters → believe → them
The New York Times and Washington Post ran stories admitting they were having trouble getting Republicans to answer their polls and therefore couldn’t guarantee their accuracy.
asserted
Republicans → run → accuracy
The polls were also wrong in the Maine Senate race six years ago, when Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) won by nearly 9 points despite trailing throughout, and in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary this year.
asserted
Collins → win → primary
But if there was any polling bias, it wasn’t necessarily in the Democrats’ favor.
asserted
it → be → favor
The New York Times was apologetic about its survey showing Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 7 points.
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Talarico → show → points
Talarico actually won by 12.
asserted
Talarico → win → 12
The same pollster showed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and her Democratic challenger Annie Andrews tied.
asserted
Graham → show → ?
Andrews won by 4.4 points.
asserted
Andrews → win → points
The national exit polls found that 44% voted to express opposition to Trump, while only 16% voted to support him, despite his request that Republicans pretend he is on the ballot.
asserted
he → find → ballot
Another 40% said Trump wasn’t a factor in their vote either way.
asserted
Trump → say → vote
In 2024, Trump won 55% of men.
asserted
Trump → win → men
This year, Democrats took 50% to the GOP’s 48%.
asserted
Democrats → take → %
Trump won 60% of white men, Republicans 53%.
asserted
Trump → win → men
Trump won 53% of white women, Republicans just 46% to 52% for the Democrats.
asserted
Trump → win → Democrats
Trump won 46% of Hispanics, compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 51%.
asserted
Trump → win → %
Democrats beat Republicans by 30 points, 64% to 34%.
asserted
Democrats → beat → points
Trump won Latino men 54% to 44%, Republicans lost them with 38% to the Democrats’ 58%.
asserted
Republicans → win → %
Even white voters without college degrees, the president’s bread-and-butter electorally, slipped from 66% for Trump to 60% for Republicans.
asserted
voters → slip → Republicans
Only 35% of white women without degrees voted for Harris, but 41% voted for Democrats in the midterm elections.
asserted
% → vote → elections
Thirty-seven percent approved of the job Trump was doing compared to 63% who disapproved.
asserted
who → approve → %
The exact same breakdown appeared on the question of whether Trump “fights for people like you.”
asserted
Trump → appear → you
Only 36% said Trump had the right priorities compared to 64% who said he did not.
asserted
he → say → %
Sixty-two percent said he prioritized his own needs above the country’s interests.
asserted
he → say → interests
Only 27% believed Trump’s policies improved national economic conditions to 66% who said they made things worse and another 7% who felt they had no impact.
asserted
they → believe → impact
Sixty-three percent blamed higher prices on Trump’s policies.
asserted
percent → blame → policies
…and 76 more, not listed.
The Aporia
