Ambitious Republicans were already sizing up JD Vance ahead of the 2028 presidential primary.
asserted
Republicans → size → primary
Last week’s midterm bludgeoning has only emboldened some of them.
asserted
bludgeoning → embolden → them
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis embarked on a media blitz in recent days as he prepares a potential run, according to three people briefed on his plans.
uncertain
he → embark → plans
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is weighing a bid, said a person with knowledge of his plans.
asserted
person → weigh → plans
And Senator Ted Cruz of Texas is planning to work with longtime consultant Jeff Roe of Axiom Strategies if he enters the race, said two people with knowledge of his thinking.
asserted
people → plan → thinking
The people, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to detail private conversations.
asserted
people → interview → conversations
With the future of US President Donald Trump’s party in question and Vance forced to differentiate himself from an unpopular president, his potential rivals see even more reason to challenge the sitting vice president, a fight that will determine not just who becomes the next GOP standard-bearer, but what the party looks like after Trump.
“I think the caucuses and that presidential process started on Wednesday morning, if not Tuesday [election] night,” said Bob Vander Plaats, a longtime conservative activist in Iowa and president of the evangelical group The Family Leader, who endorsed DeSantis in 2024.
asserted
who → force → 2024
“Because if you believe you have a case to be made of why you’re the messenger of the future, this would be your time.
asserted
this → believe → future
Vance has not decided whether to run in 2028, but was quick to publicly distance himself last week from Trump’s unpopular war with Iran and approach to affordability – a key step to remaining a viable candidate, allies of the vice president say.
asserted
allies → decide → president
Vance leads early Republican primary polling and remains the betting market favourite for the GOP nomination.
asserted
Vance → lead → nomination
He also brought in significant funds as the Republican National Committee’s finance chair.
asserted
He → bring → chair
Despite Tuesday’s poor outcome, his allies are still laying the groundwork for a run.
asserted
allies → lay → run
Over the weekend, the Rockbridge Network, a political donor and advocacy group Vance co-
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Vance → co → weekend
Vance did not attend, though his political future was among the topics discussed.
asserted
future → attend → topics
But the midterm drubbing has intensified interest among some prominent Republicans to have an earnest presidential primary, rather than a Vance coronation.
asserted
drubbing → intensify → primary
Vance always expected to face a competitive presidential primary, people around him have long said.
asserted
people → expect → him
A person close to the vice president said Vance winning a hard-fought primary would be better for him than being anointed, anyway.
asserted
winning → say → him
Donors have continued to urge Secretary of State Marco Rubio to jump into the race.
asserted
Donors → continue → race
But Rubio has said he intends to support Vance if he runs, and has privately signalled little interest in a 2028 bid in recent months.
asserted
he → say → months
Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s former director of national intelligence, wants to play a role in 2028, but not as a candidate if Vance runs, according to a person with knowledge of her thinking.
uncertain
Vance → want → thinking
Gabbard, who ran for president as a Democrat in 2020, would like to work with Vance if he launches a bid, though the two have not discussed it, the person said.
asserted
person → run → it
Lesser-known Republicans eyeing long-shot runs, like senators Rick Scott of Florida and John Kennedy of Louisiana, have made their own treks to early presidential nominating states this year in support of Republican candidates.
asserted
Republicans → know → candidates
Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and former Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin are also seen as contenders, as is former vice president Mike Pence, who has been growing a policy organisation to push the GOP back toward some of its past principles.
asserted
who → see → principles
“Lanes” as Republicans have thought of them in recent years – MAGA candidates versus anti-Trump conservatives – may be scrambled in the 2028 primary, according to a strategist working with a potential contender, making it difficult to predict what coalitions will emerge.
“When we lose the Texas governor’s race, when we lose the Mississippi Senate race, weird [stuff] is happening with the electorate right now,” the strategist added.
uncertain
strategist → think → electorate
Cruz, who has traded barbs with Vance recently, has sought to position himself as a pro-Israel candidate wanting to strengthen the US ties with the country.
asserted
who → trade → country
DeSantis, once seen as a more hawkish traditional Republican with a focus on culture-war issues, has recently sought to establish himself as an opponent of the Iran war and an advocate for strict limits on data centres and AI companies.
asserted
DeSantis → see → centres
“Everything is being reassessed everywhere after Tuesday,” said Steve Deace, a national conservative radio host based in Iowa who earlier this year expressed support for a Vance 2028 campaign.
asserted
who → reassess → campaign
Deace endorsed DeSantis ahead of the 2024 caucuses.
asserted
Deace → endorse → caucuses
Deace said Trump needs “to hear the American people and change course the way Bill Clinton did after 1994”, when Republicans took control of both chambers in an election seen as a damning referendum on the Democratic president.
asserted
Republicans → say → president
If Trump doesn’t, “this will spill over to 2028”, Deace said, “and it won’t matter who we nominate”.
asserted
we → do → who
Vander Plaats, the longtime Iowa evangelical leader, said that since Tuesday, he has heard increased interest in DeSantis.
asserted
he → say → DeSantis
The Florida governor, whose campaign and aligned super PACs spent $US160 million ($233 million) on his presidential bid, lost the caucuses to Trump 51 per cent to 21 per cent and dropped out just before the New Hampshire primary.
asserted
campaign → align → primary
DeSantis has not built out infrastructure for a campaign or met with donors, according to a person close to the governor, but if he runs, is expected to continue to use his pollster, Ryan Tyson.
uncertain
he → build → pollster
DeSantis’s unsuccessful 2024 run resulted in bitter infighting between his campaign aides and his outside super PAC.
asserted
run → result → aides
DeSantis wrote on social media on Friday that he had “not reached out to anybody about running for anything”.
asserted
he → write → anything
Kemp, whose interest in a run has not previously been reported, has kept a relatively low profile in recent years, passing on a 2026 Senate bid despite GOP leaders’ entreaties.
asserted
interest → report → entreaties
He has repeatedly stood up to Trump, and defeated a Trump-backed primary challenge against him by more than 50 percentage points in 2022, cementing his reputation as a popular conservative governor who keeps Trump at a distance.
asserted
who → stand → distance
Kemp is also considering running for Senate in 2028, said the person with knowledge of his thinking.
asserted
person → consider → thinking
January to April 2027 is most likely when serious contenders will enter the primary race, said the strategist working with one of the potential candidates.
asserted
strategist → enter → candidates
Sanders, the Arkansas governor, would bring on-the-ground experience in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to a presidential bid, having campaigned in those states for her father, Mike Huckabee, said Hogan Gidley, a longtime friend who has worked for both Sanders and her father.
asserted
who → bring → Sanders
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
