Australia
Hosting Cop was a key pledge from Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese in 2021, while in opposition, before his successful election campaign.
asserted
Hosting → host → campaign
But arcane rules meant the country had to wait its turn to bid and was then embroiled in an angry row with Turkey over the hosting.
asserted
country → mean → hosting
The final compromise put Australia in charge of the negotiations which will take place in the Turkish city of Antalya.
asserted
which → put → Antalya
The bitter taste left by the row lingers and Australia has seemed to some a rather half-hearted host.
asserted
Australia → leave → host
The country’s media has been much quieter on Cop than previous host countries, and although Albanese will speak at the opening of the leaders’ segment, he is unlikely to stay long.
asserted
he → speak → segment
As aspects of Australia’s energy supply also fall under his portfolio, he has been in the sometimes uncomfortable position of having to boost fossil fuels while insisting on the need for a clean energy transition.
asserted
he → fall → transition
Yet Australia has a positive story to tell on decarbonisation: while remaining one of the world’s major fossil fuel exporters, the country has also invested heavily in renewables, and solar power has now expanded so much that consumers are sometimes offered free electricity.
asserted
consumers → have → electricity
Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s autocratic president, showed little interest in climate and environmental concerns before bidding to host this year’s Cop summit.
asserted
Erdoğan → show → summit
In the last five years, Cop has also been held in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, all in the same broad region.
asserted
Cop → hold → region
This has given an outsize role to the Arab group of countries, who are neighbours in the region and have a strong interest in ensuring that fossil fuel interests – including their lobbyists – are well represented.
asserted
interests → give → lobbyists
Australia runs the overall direction of the negotiations, and Turkey’s government, with the environment minister, Murat Kurum, has control of the action agenda, a programme of voluntary initiatives.
asserted
government → run → initiatives
Erdoğan has used this to push forward a key interest of his wife, Emine Erdoğan, in cutting waste and promoting the circular economy.
asserted
Erdoğan → use → economy
She has called for an end to “throwaway culture” and for recycling instead of landfill – though Turkey still has sites that leak vast quantities of methane.
asserted
that → call → methane
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency and one of the world’s leading energy economists, is understood to be one of the advisers behind this year’s emphasis on electrification, displacing fossil fuels with electricity for heating, transport and industrial uses.
asserted
Birol → lead → heating
This could halve the amount of energy we need, and is the next biggest step, after boosting renewable energy generation, needed for a low-carbon world.
uncertain
we → halve → world
The recently re-elected President Lula da Silva will come to Cop31 for his first trip abroad after winning his historic fourth term, and will bring two roadmaps, one a global plan for the transition away from fossil fuels, the other for halting and reversing deforestation.
asserted
President → re → deforestation
These are non-binding, and contain no deadlines or firm requirements from governments, but show a series of steps that governments can take to achieve these goals.
asserted
governments → contain → goals
China
Xi Jinping, the president of China, will not come to this year’s Cop, but his country’s rapid energy and industrial transformation will determine the course of the planet’s future.
asserted
transformation → come → future
China is the world’s second biggest economy and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, making up nearly a third of global annual carbon output, owing mainly to the use of fossil fuels to power its explosive economic growth for the last 25 years.
asserted
China → make → years
But it has also invested in renewable energy, which is reshaping the global energy business.
asserted
which → invest → business
Xi may not be present in Antalya, but the top officials he sends will know that petrostates – including Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are his important allies.
uncertain
petrostates → send → Russia
However, countries pushing for a low-carbon future may be more important still – as China’s customers.
uncertain
countries → push → customers
For several months this year, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, mulled an intriguing proposition: to host the Cop33 UN climate summit in 2028.
asserted
minister → mull → 2028
In the end, India withdrew its bid in April without specifying why, leaving the field open.
asserted
India → withdraw → field
India is torn between its burgeoning clean energy sector – it now has the world’s third biggest installed capacity of renewable energy, after China and the US – and its coal sector, which still supplies about 70% of electricity, and has close links to Modi.
asserted
which → tear → Modi
Bhupender Yadav, India’s environment minister, who leads its Cop delegations, enjoys a mutually supportive relationship with the UK’s Ed Miliband, and a reputation as a forward thinker.
asserted
who → lead → thinker
The attention of Donald Trump has been fixed on the crucial midterm elections, a verdict on his second term as president that has shown Republicans the electoral dangers of an unpredictable White House.
asserted
that → fix → House
No US delegation is expected at Cop31, and soon Trump’s withdrawal of the country from the UN framework convention on climate change will mean none can take part.
asserted
none → expect → part
Trump’s shadow was felt at Cop30 in Belem last year, as he started to dismantle the US’s renewable energy sector and boost fossil fuels, setting the US on course to start increasing greenhouse gas emissions again, after decades in which they fell.
asserted
they → feel → which
But his administration’s unpopularity with the US electorate, and a drought and fire-filled summer, has bolstered the pro-climate stance of scores of Democratic congresspeople and state governors, despite a campaign of “climate hushing” before the midterms.
asserted
drought → fill → midterms
Some of them, and a scattering of business leaders, may attend Cop31.
uncertain
Some → attend → Cop31
Andy Burnham will attend Cop for the first time this year, after a mixed record on the climate since taking office.
asserted
Burnham → attend → office
During the record-breaking heatwaves and droughts of this summer, the British prime minister was criticised for failing to speak out on the climate crisis.
asserted
minister → break → crisis
He subsequently made strong interventions affirming his support for the UK’s target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but then backed the Jackdaw gasfield.
asserted
He → make → gasfield
No decision has been announced on the Rosebank oilfield yet.
asserted
decision → announce → oilfield
From December, Burnham will have a much bigger opportunity to craft climate policy on the international stage: the UK will take over the revolving presidency of the influential G20 group, which comprises the world’s biggest developed and developing economies.
asserted
which → have → economies
The Guardian understands that the UK will emphasise building resilience against the impacts of the climate crisis as a key focus of the G20 for its year-long presidency.
asserted
UK → understand → presidency
Miliband, now foreign secretary, and a veteran of many Cops in government and opposition, is expected to accompany the prime minister to the leaders’ summit segment of Cop31.
asserted
Miliband → expect → Cop31
Miliband was hailed, in public and private, by many participants last year for his patient bridge-building that helped Brazil to rescue a deal from the fractious final hours of Cop30.
asserted
Brazil → hail → Cop30
At this year’s UN general assembly, he also briefed other governments on the findings of the UK’s joint intelligence committee, which warned that the impact of collapsing ecosystems around the world posed a national security risk, threatening food shortages, mass migration and potential nuclear war.
asserted
impact → brief → shortages
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
