Iran has exempted ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar from its Strait of Hormuz restrictions, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Tuesday.
asserted
lawmaker → exempt → Tuesday
“Ships from these countries pass freely, and the Americans do not intercept them either,” Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA).
asserted
Moqaddam → pass → Agency
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results → accuse → conflicts
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Iran effectively shut the strait early in the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, and the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports in July.
asserted
States → shut → July
So why have these four countries been granted passage through the critical strait, and can their ships really sail freely while the blockade remains in place?
asserted
blockade → grant → place
What does Iran get in return for letting ships pass?
It will receive medicine from India and political backing from China, according to Hayat Moqaddam.
uncertain
It → get → Moqaddam
Iran already receives diplomatic support from Qatar, which is leading mediation efforts to end the US-Israel war on Iran.
asserted
which → receive → Iran
Hayat Moqaddam said Tehran will also collect transit fees from Indian and Chinese ships, while Qatari vessels pass free.
asserted
vessels → say → ships
He did not say whether Iraqi ships will pay a toll.
asserted
ships → say → toll
“Whatever the lawmaker says is the rationale – the big question is if it works and, if yes, to what extent?” Rouzbeh Parsi, an Iran analyst and affiliated researcher at Lund University’s Department of History and Human Rights Studies, told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Parsi → say → Jazeera
“Iran has been under sanctions for a very long time, so bartering and quid pro quos in trade are nothing new,” he said.
asserted
he → say → trade
The difference now, he added, is that “it’s about poking holes in an embargo and getting crucial goods/services in and out”.
asserted
it → add → services
Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, said that “most likely Iran is charging a transit fee or a percentage of the cargo value to allow those ships to go through without being harassed”.
asserted
ships → say → value
“It’s a clever move by Tehran for several reasons,” Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and defence analyst and Austria’s former defence attache to Libya, told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Pusztai → ’ → Jazeera
“If successful, this move will generate significant revenue for Iran, as China is by far the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, buying nearly 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports,” he said.
asserted
he → generate → exports
By including Qatar, with its many liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers, and India, Iran is also “trying to undermine acceptance” of Washington’s strategy in the conflict, especially as it charges Qatar no tolls, he added.
asserted
he → include → tolls
Why does it matter to these four countries?
asserted
it → matter → countries
Of the 10.23 million barrels a day of Gulf crude that passed through the strait in October, about 42 percent went to China and 13 percent to India, Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at the analytics firm Kpler, told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Xu → pass → Jazeera
“China is the country most able to cross US interests.
asserted
China → cross → interests
The question is whether Beijing considers it worth the potential political cost,” Parsi said.
asserted
Parsi → consider → ?
Asia is particularly reliant on Gulf oil and gas usually shipped out via Hormuz.
asserted
Asia → ship → Hormuz
Countries there have much to offer in return for allowing ships to pass.
asserted
ships → have → return
“For India, the shutdown of oil from the Gulf has been a great loss – and it is a big producer of the pharmaceuticals that Iran cannot manufacture itself,” he said.
asserted
he → manufacture → that
Qatar, which is mediating between Washington and Tehran, shipped no LNG through the strait in August, but managed 1.8 million tonnes in October, Xu said.
asserted
Xu → mediate → October
Its crude transits fell over the same period, from 517,000 barrels a day to 193,000, while Iraq’s rose from 1.69 million to 2.65 million.
Kpler has been unable to trace the origin of up to two million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, so both countries’ flows may be higher, Xu said.
“India and Qatar have closer relationships with DC they need to maintain – while both of them also feel let down by Trump,” Parsi said, adding, “For Qatar, maintaining a relationship with Iran is also vital since it’s an unavoidable neighbour.”
uncertain
it → fall → Iran
“So for all of them, there are upsides for these exemptions from Iranian restrictions but also political dangers,” he said.
asserted
he → be → restrictions
Iran began letting some vessels from countries it considers friendly pass within weeks of the war starting.
asserted
war → begin → weeks
And in April, its military command said “brotherly” Iraq was exempt.
asserted
Iraq → say → April
With the Iraqi exemption, Iran “probably intends to support the economic recovery” of its western neighbour, a fellow Shia-majority country, Pusztai said.
asserted
Pusztai → intend → neighbour
Will ships be able to get past the US blockade?
asserted
ships → get → blockade
That depends on Washington.
asserted
That → depend → Washington
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said the blockade applies to “all vessels of all nations entering or leaving coastal areas or ports in Iran”, while vessels avoiding Iranian ports are not affected.
asserted
vessels → say → ports
It has also said humanitarian shipments, including “food and medical supplies essential for the survival of the civilian populations”, can pass after inspection.
asserted
shipments → say → inspection
But Hayat Moqaddam did not appear to limit the exemptions to ships trading with other Gulf states, Pusztai noted.
asserted
Pusztai → appear → states
“If this is really the case, this would also have a significant impact on the other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia,” he said.
asserted
he → have → Arabia
“This could make the continuation of the American naval blockade more difficult and less effective, assuming Washington accepts this Iranian move,” he said.
uncertain
he → make → move
The main change, he added, is that the exemption “would also cover Chinese/Indian ships from/to Iran”, if the US accepts it.
asserted
US → add → it
It is also unclear whether “ships of these countries” means the flag a vessel flies, its owner, its operator or some other link, Pusztai said.
uncertain
Pusztai → mean → flag
Ending the blockade is one of Tehran’s demands before it will commit to broader peace talks with the US, which will include discussions about Iran’s nuclear programme.
asserted
which → end → programme
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
