JD Vance blaming the Republicans’ midterm rout on the Iran war was surprising not because of the substance, but because we are so unfamiliar with anyone in this administration saying openly that Donald Trump got it wrong.
asserted
it → blame → administration
In a 600-word post on X, he did not just say the war caused higher petrol prices, which Trump accepts, but that the war was not worth the electoral cost, with which Trump disagrees.
asserted
Trump → say → which
He also identified four things that Trump/Vance voters wanted: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first and “change our relationship to Israel”.
asserted
voters → identify → Israel
Vance’s reaction to the midterm results was always going to be fascinating.
asserted
reaction → go → results
As a potential 2028 presidential contender, he is possibly the biggest loser from a day on which Americans voiced their dissatisfaction with the mob that’s currently in charge.
uncertain
that → voice → charge
But it depends on how you parse the politics of what happened.
asserted
what → depend → politics
Did Americans move away from Trumpism, populism and conservatism?
asserted
Americans → move → Trumpism
Or did they determine that Trump and his Republicans failed to deliver on the populism, isolationism and “America First” doctrine they had promised?
asserted
they → determine → populism
Vance believes it’s the latter.
asserted
it → believe → ?
And his election autopsy tried to position him as the movement’s future standard-bearer – one who would really put America first, rather than paying lip service to the idea.
asserted
who → try → idea
He hit upon the same themes that were discussed that morning by MAGA influencer Steve Bannon and long-time Trump adviser Jason Miller, who recently returned to the White House in a strategy role, on Bannon’s War Room TV show and podcast.
asserted
who → hit → show
Bannon and Miller spoke of the need to end the Iran war, reject any Democratic push for amnesties for illegal immigrants, and rethink the US relationship with Israel – all things Vance highlighted.
asserted
Vance → speak → Israel
“The president said it last night – I’ve got to applaud him on this – Israel being a strong ally, they don’t need to get $US4 billion ($5.7 billion) a year or whatever it is the US is sending them,” Miller said on the show.
asserted
Miller → say → show
“When we talk about America first, that means America first.”
asserted
that → talk → America
Alexander Gray, a Republican on the National Security Council during Trump 1.0, and is now chief executive of advisory firm American Global Strategies, supported Vance’s analysis.
asserted
Gray → support → analysis
Some Republicans would predictably seek to parse the election results as “a repudiation of America First”, he wrote on X. But “the data makes clear that the message that won in 2024 hasn’t ceased being on the money; voters just didn’t perceive the Republicans to be standing for it this cycle”.
asserted
Republicans → seek → it
We know that Vance was never on board with the war started by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
asserted
Vance → know → Trump
As a member of the executive, he was bound to publicly defend the president’s decision.
asserted
he → bind → decision
Clearly, he believes the election loss now gives him more freedom.
asserted
loss → believe → freedom
Vance has always been an opportunist: he was once sharply critical of Trump, even describing him as “America’s Hitler”, before changing his stance when it became politically expedient.
asserted
it → describe → stance
On CNN, conservative writer Jonah Goldberg called Vance “exceedingly deceitful” amid Wednesday’s election fallout.
But the vice president believes his path to the presidency, if he runs, depends on holding together Trump’s MAGA coalition.
asserted
he → call → coalition
He sees the isolationist, Tucker Carlson-type part of their base – the so-called “new right” – as a key component.
asserted
He → see → component
His problem with the Iran war was not just the price of fuel, but that it further aligned the United States with Israel and jettisoned America First.
asserted
it → align → First
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, said on i24 that it was “unfortunate” to bring Israel into the Republicans’ drubbing.
asserted
it → say → drubbing
“It’s very easy to always blame Israel for everything, but that is not the case.”
asserted
that → ’ → everything
Things can and will change over the coming 18 months; some may work in Vance’s favour, others not.
uncertain
others → change → favour
Some solution to the Iran war will probably be found; petrol prices will most likely come down.
asserted
prices → find → war
Democrats might succeed in Congress, or they could overplay their hand.
uncertain
they → succeed → hand
Vance probably needs Trump’s endorsement to become the Republican nominee, which is why some people were surprised that he made the comments that he did on Wednesday.
asserted
he → need → Wednesday
But Trump may well have licensed Vance’s strategy.
uncertain
Trump → license → strategy
He said he had spoken to Vance, and the vice president’s statement was “good”.
asserted
statement → say → Vance
Maybe he wouldn’t run, Trump said casually.
asserted
Trump → run → ?
“Maybe nobody’s going to run.”
asserted
nobody → go → ?
And Trump’s endorsement may also be a diminishing currency.
uncertain
endorsement → diminish → ?
His persistently low approval ratings are unlikely to change.
asserted
ratings → change → ?
It’s very difficult for the vice president of an unpopular president to succeed; we saw that with Kamala Harris after Joe Biden.
asserted
we → ’ → Biden
But Harris barely tried to differentiate herself from Biden (and Biden told her not to).
asserted
Biden → try → her
What we saw from Vance today was the start of his effort not to make the same mistake.
asserted
saw → see → mistake
Where the results stand: Live tracking votes across the key states
asserted
results → stand → states
- ‘The reason is obvious’: Bloodletting begins over Republicans wipeout
-
asserted
Bloodletting → begin → wipeout
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
