The temptation after a Democratic victory at today’s midterm elections – if that is indeed what transpires – will be to parse the results as Americans turning the page on Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.
asserted
America → transpire → Trump
At the 2018 midterms, during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained 40 seats and took control of the House of Representatives.
asserted
Democrats → gain → Representatives
Americans removed Trump from office two years later, and, amid an onslaught of criminal charges, he seemed destined for the dustbin of political history.
asserted
he → remove → history
As we know, voters felt otherwise.
asserted
voters → know → ?
Trump achieved a bigger victory in 2024 than 2016 – despite, and possibly because of, everything Americans knew about him and his policies.
uncertain
Americans → achieve → him
The Trump agenda at the time – lower prices, no new foreign wars, tariffs, closing the border and dismantling the “woke” agenda – carried the day
asserted
agenda → close → day
it appealed
asserted
it → appeal → ?
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull notes Trump won a genuine majority for “his ‘America first’ views, his protectionist views, his view that America should use its power to extract the best deal for itself, and his views that America should not be overly concerned about its allies”.
asserted
America → note → allies
Trump himself may be historically unpopular – and that will impact today’s results – but the factors that led Americans to support him twice are still there.
uncertain
that → impact → him
Arguably, it is not so much that voters have moved away from Trumpism, but that he let them down.
asserted
he → move → them
“In a sense, you could say Trump’s political problems today are caused by him abandoning key elements of MAGA,” Turnbull told this masthead last week in New York.
uncertain
Turnbull → say → York
This is a guy who was seeking the Nobel Peace Prize.
asserted
who → seek → Prize
This is a guy who railed against George W. Bush’s war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
asserted
who → rail → Iraq
He talked to me and Lucy [Turnbull’s wife] about it once.
asserted
He → talk → it
He was obsessed about this.
asserted
He → obsess → this
Trump played the populist card in 2024, and Democrats have played it in 2026.
asserted
Democrats → play → 2026
The party’s key election message has been about affordability: that Trump’s tariffs, trade disputes and war with Iran mean you are paying more for petrol and groceries.
asserted
you → mean → petrol
Australians, who depend on imports, also pay much more for petrol than Americans.
asserted
who → depend → Americans
If it is the case that affordability is the big issue at this election, then, as with foreign policy, it is not so much that voters are abandoning their populist positions as judging that the president and his Republicans have not fulfilled them.
asserted
president → abandon → them
Most US states beat nearly all European countries on median income.
asserted
states → beat → income
So it is striking that the cost of living has become the perennial cudgel for an opposition to bash an incumbent, before becoming the albatross around the neck of the next incumbent.
asserted
opposition → become → incumbent
And Trump has remade the GOP into much more of a populist party.
asserted
Trump → remake → party
Even with the Iran war and all the other baggage of the second Trump administration, the candidates he endorsed performed very well in Republican primaries, regularly beating incumbents – such as Texas senator John Cornyn, who lost to Ken Paxton.
asserted
who → endorse → Paxton
‘I’m going to have a lot of power when I leave.’US President Donald Trump, at a rally in Iowa
How much power Trump retains within his own party will shape the endurance of Trumpism and MAGA.
asserted
retains → go → Trumpism
As political strategist Douglas Heye says, Republicans may feel liberated after the midterms to be “a bit more outspoken about what they really think about Trump”, and say publicly what they only admit privately now.
uncertain
they → say → what
The size of Republican losses will help determine Trump’s ongoing influence: a bloodbath would weaken him, while losses in line with a standard midterm election could be dismissed as inevitable.
uncertain
losses → help → election
At any rate, the immense power Republicans have invested in Trump does not dissipate overnight.
asserted
Republicans → invest → Trump
In a little-noticed aside during a recent rally in Iowa, he made a prediction.
asserted
he → notice → prediction
“I’ll always have that little extra power,” he said, while talking about his eventual exit from the White House.
asserted
he → have → House
“I’m going to have a lot of power when I leave.”
asserted
I → go → power
Trump’s assumed successor, Vice President J.D. Vance, has positioned himself to capture those voters who feel betrayed by Trump.
asserted
who → assume → Trump
He never fully signed on to the Iran war, and does not echo the president’s rhetoric that – current petrol prices notwithstanding – Americans have never had it so good.
asserted
it → sign → rhetoric
At Trump rallies around the country, supporters consistently say Vance is the guy they like for 2028.
asserted
they → say → 2028
He represents the MAGA constituency more so than Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another likely contender.
asserted
He → represent → Rubio
If Trumpism is to continue post-Trump, it probably runs through Vance.
asserted
it → continue → Vance
But the president has been non-committal so far in terms of an endorsement, and appears to enjoy fostering a competitive rivalry between the two men – or perhaps someone else.
asserted
president → appear → men
“I can’t see him staying out of this,” says Bob Shapiro, political scientist at Columbia University.
asserted
Shapiro → see → University
“To the extent that he’s in this, that’s going to tell us whether Trumpism has legs or not, and whether there is a candidate he picks or a candidate who steps forward and ascends and basically carries the mantle of Trumpism.
asserted
who → ’ → Trumpism
It is a skill in which he is uniquely gifted, once boasting – correctly, it seems – that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes.
uncertain
he → boast → votes
Others may be less adept and less brazen, but they’re happy to try.
uncertain
they → ’re → ?
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
