- Published
Donald Trump deals in superlatives, so there is political karma in the sheer size of the defeat handed to him by a big majority of the voters of America.
asserted
Trump → publish → America
But do not expect him to go gentle into the political twilight of his career.
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him → expect → career
Losing both houses of the US Congress limits his capacity to dictate, manoeuvre and disrupt at home.
asserted
Losing → lose → home
As president of the United States and commander-in-chief of its armed forces he retains broad powers to use America's military might.
uncertain
he → retain → might
It is not easy to predict the actions and oscillations of Donald Trump.
asserted
It → predict → Trump
As president, he has turned policy u-turns into weapons.
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he → turn → weapons
One is his contempt for those he regards as losers, and his determination never to be seen as one.
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he → regard → one
The president might be tempted to blot out the electoral rout of the midterms by taking actions abroad.
uncertain
president → tempt → actions
He might try to make moves that he can boast about as the decisive and victorious moves of a strong president, undiminished by an election that he insists, despite all the evidence, that was only lost because he was not on the ballot paper.
uncertain
he → try → paper
In the weeks leading up to the midterms the deployment of US forces and Trump's own, often belligerent, statements ramped up talk that the US was getting ready to go back to war with Iran.
asserted
US → lead → Iran
On the eve of the elections, the US carried out a limited bombing raid on an Iranian island in the Gulf.
asserted
US → carry → Gulf
Before he was hospitalised with a stroke, the US Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, went to a classified briefing about potential military options for renewed war with Iran.
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Senator → hospitalise → Iran
Without going into detail, he condemned the plans as "insane", warning that they would trigger a "devastating escalation".
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they → go → escalation
There has been speculation that the Americans have plans to bomb civilian infrastructure.
asserted
Americans → bomb → infrastructure
Not only would that be likely to constitute a war crime, it might also be answered by devastating Iranian strikes on equivalent targets on US allies in the Gulf.
uncertain
it → constitute → Gulf
Its list of potential targets could start with the United Arab Emirates, which is as close to Israel as it is to the US.
uncertain
it → start → US
The regime in Tehran watches political developments in the US closely.
asserted
regime → watch → US
It has not concealed its satisfaction that the consequences of its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have become a domestic political issue in the US.
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consequences → conceal → US
Tehran is aware of the damage caused to Trump and the Republicans by the sustained rise in the prices of everything (from petrol and diesel to agricultural fertilisers) caused by the war and its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Tehran → cause → Hormuz
The Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted a warning on social media.
asserted
Speaker → post → media
He said: "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.
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we → say → message
If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare."
asserted
NO → betray → Nightmare
Benjamin Netanyahu, now acting prime minister of Israel after its election last week, and manoeuvring hard to form a new government, has repeated that he wants to bring down the Islamic regime in Tehran.
asserted
he → act → Tehran
Reports in Israel and the US say that he is pushing Trump to go back to war.
asserted
he → say → war
Netanyahu does not have the seats to form a new government with his outgoing coalition.
But if a major war restarted and was sustained, and if Israelis came under direct fire, he could have new options of forming a unity government that he would use his considerable political skills to dominate.
uncertain
he → have → skills
War in Ukraine
The other major conflict to which Trump might turn his attention is between Ukraine and Russia, which has now lasted longer than the First World War.
uncertain
which → turn → War
Before the elections he dropped sanctions against Moscow to buy Russian diesel.
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he → drop → diesel
He might decide to prolong and deepen sanctions relief in the hope of somehow easing the economic pressure on American consumers.
uncertain
He → decide → consumers
He has not been noticeably concerned about the deadly pressures on Ukrainian civilians who have been targeted by Russian ballistic missiles, now getting through in greater numbers because Ukraine's appeals for more US-made interceptors, funded by European allies, have not been answered in the way Ukraine needs and wants.
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Ukraine → target → way
The Kremlin spokesman said Russia hoped that the election results would not impact what it called Trump's "peace-making efforts".
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it → say → what
Donald Trump has consistently tried to force Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky into making territorial concessions to Russia to produce an agreement that would amount to capitulation for Kyiv.
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that → try → Kyiv
Trump would add it to his improbable list of wars solved and stopped.
asserted
Trump → add → wars
Smarting from electoral defeat, Trump might attempt to redouble pressure on Zelensky to accept the concessions that he has repeatedly rejected.
uncertain
he → smart → that
It is safe to say Donald Trump will continue building monuments to himself in Washington DC.
asserted
Trump → say → DC
Beyond that, it is worth repeating that predictions of his next moves at home and abroad risk being wrong.
asserted
predictions → repeat → home
But it is certain that he is not going to sit in a presidential rocking-chair and wait out his time in the White House.
asserted
he → go → House
Throughout his time as president, Donald Trump has relished his power and been determined to use it.
asserted
Trump → relish → it
That is not going to change, and there is every chance that he wants to show that if he can no longer shake America, he can shake the world.
asserted
he → go → world
The Aporia
