Iran this week unveiled a huge billboard and banners over Enqelab Square in central Tehran.
asserted
Iran → unveil → Tehran
The billboard pledged in English: “We will kill Trump” – elevating the degree of personal animus with which Donald Trump is viewed in official Iranian circles.
asserted
Trump → pledge → circles
The poster depicts the US president behind bars with his head bowed.
asserted
head → depict → bars
And in a sense, given the US midterm election results on Tuesday, Iran has indeed killed Trump, or at least the second term of his presidency.
asserted
Iran → give → presidency
Trump’s reverse is all the more piquant because it comes on the day Iran’s leadership celebrates the anniversary of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979, an event that ensnared Jimmy Carter, and a reminder of how Iran has ruined the prospects of more than one US president.
asserted
Iran → come → president
Not surprisingly, the keenly followed election results have led to a good degree of triumphalism inside Iran.
asserted
results → follow → Iran
Ehsan Movaheidian, an international relations scholar, claimed: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has succeeded in regime change in America.
asserted
Republic → claim → America
The same will soon happen in Europe as well.
asserted
same → happen → Europe
Meisam Zohurian, a conservative member of parliament, said: “The joy over the outcome of the US elections has nothing to do with the arrival of this party or the departure of that party.
asserted
joy → say → party
The issue is the aggressor was smeared in the dirt and Iran had an impact on the result.”
asserted
Iran → smear → result
Ali Nikzad, the first deputy speaker of the parliament, said: “These electoral defeats are the aftershocks of Trump’s defeat by the Iranian people.”
asserted
defeats → say → people
Iran’s supreme leader said anyone expecting a shift in US policy was “seriously mistaken”, however.
asserted
anyone → say → policy
“Those who still harbour even the slightest hope that the behaviour of the hegemonic system might change through partisan or factional shifts, or who imagine that making concessions to the United States can dissuade it from hostility towards the Iranian nation, are seriously mistaken,” Mojtaba Khamenei wrote.
uncertain
Khamenei → harbour → nation
Others predicted further electoral defeats for those they considered to be the warmongers in Europe, and the expulsion of US bases from the entire Middle East.
asserted
they → predict → East
The resistance – or bloody-mindedness – shown by Iran for the past eight gruelling months did allow the strait of Hormuz to become an Iranian-controlled channel through which inflation and high diesel prices were transmitted to the US system.
asserted
inflation → show → system
Even Trump himself on Wednesday accepted, and lamented, that the American people had decided the “short-term” pain of inflation was not a price worth paying to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear power.
asserted
Iran → accept → inflation
But the big question now is whether either side will regard these seismic results as a moment to review their diplomatic strategy.
asserted
side → regard → strategy
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was quick to call on Trump to accept the wisdom of the American people.
asserted
negotiator → call → people
On social media he urged Trump to bow to the verdict of America: “Whether driven by conscience or the cost of living, America said no to war and we endorse this message.”
asserted
we → urge → message
Ghalibaf added: “If the US government betrays the public will in order to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our ‘no’ comes with a nightmare.”
Yet Iran will also be asked to reflect on the wisdom of war by the Gulf monarchies, and possibly by Russia and China – the latter a country that finally seems to be stirring itself to find a solution to the blockade in the strait of Hormuz which is preventing badly needed Middle East oil exports from reaching its industries.
uncertain
which → add → industries
China tends to knock only on doors it knows are going to open, so it is probably testing the feasibility of a deal in which Iran “downblends” – or dilutes – its stockpile of highly enriched uranium inside Iran under international supervision.
asserted
Iran → tend → supervision
A Chinese special envoy is travelling to Oman, Iran and Saudi Arabia almost immediately.
asserted
envoy → travel → Oman
These countries, some sympathetic to Iran’s predicament, can point out that if Tehran ever thought in the run-up to the elections Trump would capitulate and turn his carrier fleet around, it was mistaken.
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it → point → fleet
Some Iranian diplomats had indeed hoped that the prospect of defeat in the midterms, and pressure from within the Republican party, would have led Trump to make concessions to Tehran.
asserted
prospect → hop → Tehran
In fact, both sides and the chief mediator, Qatar, clearly did try to use polling day as a lever, but in the end neither retreated.
asserted
neither → try → end
Trump, for once, was true to his word and refused to allow the darkening opinion polls to reduce his determination to keep Iran in his vice.
asserted
polls → refuse → vice
Confined to a holding bay of “neither war nor peace”, Trump’s priority was to keep the oil price as low as possible by repeatedly suggesting a settlement might be imminent.
uncertain
settlement → confine → price
For the next two months before the new Congress convenes in January – so reducing his budgetary options – Trump has greater latitude, and little accountability.
asserted
Trump → convene → latitude
The damage to the Republican party has been done and cannot be undone.
asserted
damage → do → party
Unsurprisingly the Trump influencers who advocated for the war in the first place are piling on pressure to strike again quickly.
asserted
who → advocate → pressure
Laura Loomer wrote on X: “Time for President Trump to deal with Iran once and for all.
asserted
Trump → write → all
But the credibility of Loomer and her like has been severely damaged: in February, she advised Trump that regime change in Iran – “a little excursion” – could be as easy as knocking over the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
uncertain
change → damage → Venezuela
Similarly, Benjamin Netanyahu is now touting intelligence showing that Iran is preparing to use chemical weapons.
asserted
Iran → tout → weapons
The ease with which the Israeli prime minister conjures up intelligence to justify another assault on Iran may by now have struck the White House.
uncertain
minister → conjure → House
Hillary Clinton, Trump’s old sparring partner, is one who thinks Trump will probably launch the long-delayed attack.
asserted
Trump → think → attack
She said: “I think he will feel trapped.
asserted
he → say → ?
He will feel angry and resentful and he will react aggressively.”
asserted
he → feel → ?
Having come so far, and paid so high a political price, Trump may in the next two months try to secure a legacy by finishing the job – however he defines that.
uncertain
he → come → that
He is convinced, as he told Fox News this week, that “Iran has very few missiles and drones left, and even less capacity to build any more”.
asserted
Iran → convince → more
He crowed: “We are dealing with total strength.
asserted
We → crow → strength
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
