The polls leading into the US midterm elections are increasingly clear: Democrats are on track for a significant, possibly landslide, victory.
uncertain
Democrats → lead → victory
What began as a consensus that Republicans would lose their slim majority in the House of Representatives but likely retain the Senate has become a growing expectation that Democrats will win control of both chambers.
However, some pollsters are nervous about the accuracy of those surveys, and reluctant to predict a “blue wave” will eventuate.
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wave → begin → surveys
In short, because they are pointing to results that would be unprecedented in some cases, and because they’ve been wrong before.
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they → point → cases
The most ambitious outcomes currently predicted by the polls are Democrats winning a Senate seat in Texas, turning Ohio, Iowa and Alaska blue, and potentially squeaking home in Kansas – a state that has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate in 94 years.
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that → predict → years
“The Senate is closer to a tossup than most people think,” GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights told The New York Times.
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Ruffini → think → Times
“The prospect of another red-state polling error looms – particularly in the Midwest.”
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prospect → loom → Midwest
Polls have chronically overrated the Democrats’ chances in some of those states.
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Polls → overrate → states
As Donald Trump loves to remind people, they predicted Hillary Clinton would beat him handily.
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Clinton → love → him
And in 2024, a shock poll by veteran pollster Ann Selzer had liberals aflutter with the prediction that Kamala Harris would triumph in Iowa.
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Harris → have → Iowa
Trump ended up winning by an even larger margin.
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Trump → end → margin
‘No matter how much error there is in the polls, I don’t think they will miss by that big a margin.’Rob Shapiro, a political scientist at Columbia University
But those clangers have generally happened when Trump himself is on the ballot, because of polling companies’ failure to reach rural and working-class voters, and peculiar attributes of the president’s followers.
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Trump → be → followers
“Trump voters don’t talk to the pollsters, and that can’t be adjusted for through adjusting demographic characteristics,” says Rob Shapiro, a political scientist at Columbia University specialising in public opinion polling and statistical methods.
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Shapiro → talk → polling
“They’re basically personality and psychological profiles that have to be adjusted for, for which we don’t have a measure to adjust.”
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we → ’re → measure
Shapiro points out that pollsters have a better track record with midterm elections.
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pollsters → point → elections
They may overestimate the Democrats’ gains, but they are unlikely to be in the wrong direction entirely.
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they → overestimate → direction
“No matter how much error there is in the polls, I don’t think they will miss by that big a margin,” Shapiro says.
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Shapiro → be → margin
“I wouldn’t adjust them by more than three points towards the Republicans.
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I → adjust → Republicans
Even if you do that, these elections will still lead to a Democratic Congress.”
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elections → do → Congress
Nobody seriously believes Republicans will retain their majority in the House, even though most analysts think massive gerrymandering has reduced the potential Democratic pickup to about 20 or 25 seats.
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gerrymandering → believe → seats
Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Centre monitors how midterm election outcomes track presidential job approval in this piece for The Washington Post.
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outcomes → monitor → Post
“The Dems are going to take back the house, there’s no doubt about it,” says Douglas Heye, a Republican strategist and party operative who worked in the Bush administration.
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who → go → administration
“There’s no realistic thought that [polls] can be wrong when it comes to the House of Representatives or the Dems gaining Senate seats.
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it → ’ → seats
It’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen in Michigan or Maine or Alaska, and so forth.”
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what → ’ → Michigan
Heye says Republican Michael Whatley will not be able to defend the Senate seat in North Carolina, where incumbent Thom Tillis is retiring.
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Tillis → say → Carolina
The party long ago moved money and resources out of that contest.
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party → move → contest
“We’re talking about South Carolina.
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We → talk → Carolina
We’re not talking about North Carolina and Georgia.
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We → talk → Carolina
That’s insanity.”
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That → ’ → ?
, Republicans have been wounded in critical Senate contests by poor candidate selection, Heye says.
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Heye → wound → selection
He points to Darline Graham in South Carolina – the inexperienced sister of late Republican senator Lindsey Graham – and Texas attorney-general Ken Paxton, who carries enormous baggage.
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who → point → baggage
Shapiro believes a Senate tied at 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance holding the deciding vote, is still a live outcome.
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Senate → believe → vote
But some pollsters who have urged caution up to this point are willing to make bolder calls with election day now upon us.
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day → urge → us
Nate Silver, based on a rigorous analysis of the final polls from Siena and The New York Times, believes Democrats will win the Senate, “perhaps soundly”.
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Democrats → base → Senate
He says the party’s chances of controlling that chamber are somewhere around 80 to 90 per cent.
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chances → say → chamber
Read more on US politics:
- Trump worship: What it’s really like inside midterm election rallies
- Opinion: Even Elon Musk’s billions won’t be able to save Trump
- Opinion: The intimate photograph that captures Trump’s hunger
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that → read → hunger
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