President Donald Trump has repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he’s on the ballot this Election Day.
asserted
he → encourage → ballot
He’s not, of course.
asserted
He → ’ → course
But there is reason to believe that Tuesday’s midterms, above all, will be a referendum on his performance over the last two years.
asserted
midterms → be → years
History, polling and early voting numbers suggest it could be a difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map, not to mention a fresh round of gerrymandering, could limit Democratic gains.
uncertain
map → suggest → gains
Democrats are looking to win majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump’s power after he’s faced few limits from a compliant Republican-controlled Congress.
asserted
he → look → Congress
More than 50 million Americans already have voted, but many more ballots will be cast Tuesday, and government watchdog groups worry that Trump and his loyalists could interfere with the voting process on Election Day.
uncertain
Trump → vote → Day
Fearing a worst-case scenario, Democrats and nonpartisan watchdogs have trained tens of thousands of volunteers to monitor polling places.
asserted
Democrats → fear → places
Here’s what we’re watching Tuesday:
asserted
we → ’ → what
Trump said ‘pretend I’m on the ballot.’
asserted
I → say → ballot
What do voters say?
asserted
voters → say → What
The Republican president is trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.
asserted
party → try → them
Democrats certainly hope that’s the case this year.
asserted
that → hope → ?
The party is optimistic, given Trump’s dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.
asserted
party → give → gas
Trump is betting that his base of white working-class voters, which fueled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, can save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.
asserted
they → bet → numbers
Heading into Election Day, however, there are signs that Democrats are more fired up to vote against him and his party.
asserted
Democrats → head → him
We’re about to learn whether Trump and his coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown. Specifically, look to see whether Hispanic and Black voters and younger people who swung toward Trump two years ago now rebuke him.
asserted
who → learn → him
The answer will have huge implications in the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
asserted
answer → have → midterms
Can Democrats win both chambers of Congress?
asserted
Democrats → win → Congress
It doesn’t happen often.
asserted
It → happen → ?
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006.
asserted
House → flip → midterm
The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
asserted
it → happen → president
This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.
asserted
Democrats → have → opportunity
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.
asserted
Republicans → believe → 220
It’s unclear how big of a swing there could be, however.
uncertain
It → ’ → swing
Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits.
asserted
Trump → target → digits
But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren’t as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
asserted
Democrats → be → seats
Early tells could be Pennsylvania’s 1st District, where Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is trying to hold his suburban Philadelphia seat; Florida’s redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, both of which were supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring; Virginia’s 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria; and Virginia’s 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman.
uncertain
Taylor → try → Wittman
Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage.
asserted
Republicans → have → advantage
To net the four seats that Democrats need to take control, they must win states that Trump won.
asserted
Trump → net → that
Early East Coast results could offer clues.
uncertain
results → offer → clues
Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip an open North Carolina seat, and Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is widely expected to win reelection in Georgia.
asserted
Ossoff → favor → Georgia
If one or both of those outcomes don’t happen, or if the margins are razor-thin, it could forecast a stronger-than-expected Republican performance elsewhere.
Will Trump interfere?
uncertain
Trump → happen → performance
It’s a question not usually asked in U.S. politics.
asserted
It → ’ → politics
The world is watching to see whether the president leverages the vast resources of the federal government to interfere with the election.
asserted
president → watch → election
Based on recent rhetoric, legal action and his yearslong record of promoting baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses, there is reason to take the threat seriously.
uncertain
he → base → threat
In recent days, the Trump administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected his Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses.
asserted
Sullivan → hint → race
Trump called the situation “voter fraud at the highest level.”
asserted
Trump → call → level
The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government has identified as “likely” noncitizens.
asserted
government → try → noncitizens
Trump’s Department of Justice is sending about 1,000 department staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are being followed.
asserted
laws → send → voting
Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts.
uncertain
Trump → dispatch → precincts
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
