Americans will head to the polls to vote for the next US House of Representatives and US Senate.
asserted
Americans → head → Representatives
We'll launch our live coverage of the elections later today, but in the meantime, let's dive into what happened overnight.
asserted
what → launch → meantime
Click here to see how popular Trump is today, and click here for a quick breakdown on what the midterms are all about.
asserted
midterms → click → what
Here's what you need to know today
-
asserted
you → need → what
Politicians across the country are finishing their push for voters on the eve of election day.
asserted
Politicians → finish → day
Trump ditched the campaign trail and gave a speech in Washington, DC.
asserted
Trump → ditch → Washington
Standing in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, he announced he was officially reopening the monument and joked that he wanted to name it after himself.
asserted
he → stand → himself
Meanwhile, Democratic candidates are hoping to capitalise on frustrations over the cost of living and the Iran war.
asserted
candidates → hop → living
I mentioned yesterday that the Trump administration has said California may have thousands of non-citizens on its voter rolls.
uncertain
California → mention → rolls
A federal judge tossed a Department of Justice (DOJ) request to block the counting of more than 20,000 on those grounds.
asserted
judge → toss → grounds
Now, the DOJ has filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS), asking it to take up the matter.
asserted
DOJ → file → matter
If SCOTUS decides to overrule the lower courts' decisions, the federal government's role in elections (usually state matters) could change radically.
uncertain
role → decide → elections
- What the polls say: Election forecasters are publishing their final midterm race ratings.
asserted
forecasters → say → ratings
Sabato's Crystal Ball has made calls on every race, and predicts a 239-196 Democratic House and a 53-47 Democratic Senate.
asserted
Ball → make → House
The Silver Bulletin tips a 241-194 Democratic House and 53-47 Democratic Senate, and FiftyPlusOne puts Democrats at a strong likelihood to claim both chambers.
uncertain
FiftyPlusOne → tip → chambers
Let's dive deeper
North America correspondent Lauren Day is in Michigan this week.
asserted
Day → let → Michigan
It's one of a handful of states tipped to decide who will end up with a Senate majority.
asserted
who → tip → majority
I messaged with her about what issues voters are weighing ahead of casting their ballots.
asserted
voters → message → ballots
You're in Detroit, known as "Motor City", the heart of America's car-making industry.
asserted
You → know → industry
What's a common thread you heard from voters there?
asserted
you → hear → voters
The common thread everywhere I’ve been in this election cycle is really the increasing cost of living and the Trump administration policies people are blaming that on: tariffs and the Iran war.
asserted
people → increase → that
The car-making industry has been really impacted by the tariffs.
asserted
industry → make → tariffs
Everyone drives, so the price of fuel is causing a lot of pain.
asserted
price → drive → pain
The average income in Michigan is significantly lower than the national average, and it's right on the border with Canada, so that trade war has really upset people.
asserted
war → upset → people
I went to an auto repair shop today, and the owner said a lot of people were really struggling to make ends meet, but he has no choice but to put prices up.
asserted
he → go → prices
It's been a wild weekend here in Detroit after Haley Stevens — who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed back in August — made a shock endorsement of Republican candidate Mike Rogers.
asserted
who → lose → Rogers
Some people think it might actually boost support for El-Sayed but others are quite worried that this could, at best, distract and, at worst, derail the Democrats in this crucial Senate race.
uncertain
this → think → race
The feud centred around El-Sayed's criticism of Israel, of which Stevens is a staunch supporter.
asserted
Stevens → centre → which
It's also exposed a wider rift within the Democratic Party over its policies on Israel, which will no doubt continue to be a major issue beyond the midterms and into the 2028 presidential race (yes we're already thinking about the next election before this one is even over).
asserted
one → expose → election
She spoke about Stevens's surprise endorsement here and about former president Barack Obama campaigning for El-Sayed here.
asserted
Obama → speak → Sayed
US President Donald Trump might not be up for election at the midterms, but his popularity will strongly influence the outcome.
uncertain
popularity → influence → outcome
The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections, and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular.
asserted
president → lose → elections
Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.
asserted
party → collate → seats
Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller losses, with an average of 14 seats.
asserted
Presidents → net → seats
Your crash course on the midterms
LoadingAnd here's how to stay up to date
You can keep track of the latest out of the US here.
asserted
You → stay → US
The Aporia
