Democrats look poised for victory in tomorrow's midterms, at least if the polls are right (a big if).
asserted
polls → look → midterms
But this weekend's intra-party clashes in Michigan show what's in store for the party after the voting is over.
asserted
voting → show → party
The big story in Democratic politics this year has been the party's internal lurch to the left, including the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) as a significant force.
asserted
story → include → force
DSA candidates did well in places like New York's so-called "commie corridor," riding the tails of Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
asserted
candidates → do → Mamdani
But could the party's progressive faction, broadly defined, win outside of deep-blue urban areas?
uncertain
faction → define → areas
The Reason Roundup Newsletter by Liz Wolfe Liz and Reason help you make sense of the day's news every morning.
asserted
you → help → news
That question loomed largest in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed, a socialist in all but name who campaigned on Medicare for All and a more adversarial stance toward Israel, won a narrow and hotly contested primary against moderate rival Haley Stevens.
asserted
who → loom → Stevens
El-Sayed's candidacy became a test case: If a left-wing candidate could win a Senate race in Michigan, such candidates could win anywhere.
uncertain
candidates → become → Michigan
Over the weekend, as Reason's Robby Soave noted yesterday, Stevens broke with El-Sayed and the party.
asserted
Stevens → note → Sayed
El-Sayed and Stevens were supposed to campaign together on Sunday at a unity rally.
asserted
Sayed → suppose → rally
But on Saturday, El-Sayed said he didn't want Stevens to join him at the event.
asserted
Stevens → say → event
On Sunday, Stevens appeared instead with El-Sayed's Republican rival, Mike Rogers, in the morning, and then went on to issue an endorsement of the GOP candidate.
asserted
Stevens → appear → candidate
This, to say the least, is…unusual.
asserted
This → say → least
Some reports suggest that Stevens had been telling party leaders as late as Saturday that she planned to vote for El-Sayed.
asserted
she → suggest → Sayed
The Washington Post reports that "Stevens had told multiple people close to her she had no plans to endorse Rogers."
asserted
she → report → Rogers
As Politico's Lisa Kashinsky wrote before Stevens broke ranks: "Michigan's election results aren't going to solve Democrats' civil war.
asserted
results → write → war
Instead, the conflict in the early primary state that's pivotal to the party's presidential ambitions is only intensifying."
asserted
that → intensify → ambitions
The Michigan race is a preview of Democratic faction wars to come.
asserted
race → come → wars
Democrats will probably win big tomorrow.
asserted
Democrats → win → ?
But then they'll have to fight each other.
asserted
they → have → other
Obamacare premiums spike.
asserted
premiums → spike → ?
In September 2009, then-President Barack Obama delivered a major speech to a joint session of Congress touting the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare.
asserted
Obama → deliver → Act
"The plan I'm announcing tonight," he said, "would meet three basic goals.
asserted
he → announce → goals
It will provide more security and stability to those who have health insurance.
asserted
who → provide → insurance
It will provide insurance for those who don't.
asserted
who → provide → those
And it will slow the growth of health care costs for our families, our businesses, and our government.
asserted
it → slow → families
Next year, insurance plans sold through the health care exchanges erected under the law will increase by an average of 13 percent, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
uncertain
plans → sell → Foundation
That's in line with, but a little higher than, the average increase for employer-sponsored plans, which The New York Times reports will rise by about 10 percent.
asserted
Times → sponsor → percent
As Tyler Cowen notes, there is an inherent political/policy instability in Obamacare.
asserted
Cowen → note → Obamacare
Democrats rarely brag about the law: "It is striking to me how infrequently I hear Democrats boasting about Obamacare," Cowen writes.
asserted
Cowen → brag → Obamacare
"They instead prefer to talk as if little or nothing has been done for America's uninsured."
asserted
little → prefer → uninsured
You hear a lot about Medicare for All these days, especially from left-leaning Democratic politicians like El-Sayed.
asserted
You → hear → Sayed
The law included a provision prohibiting out of network doctors from billing a patient directly.
asserted
law → include → patient
Instead, providers have the option to make a case to an arbitrator approved by the government; if the provider wins, the insurer must pay the bill.
asserted
insurer → have → bill
As the Times reported earlier this year: "The law is successfully protecting patients against bills from doctors they never chose.
asserted
they → report → doctors
But it has also generated an expensive unanticipated consequence: Doctors have flooded the arbitration system with millions of claims.
uncertain
Doctors → generate → claims
Most are winning, often collecting fees hundreds of times higher than what they could negotiate with insurers directly or what they could have earned from patients before the law passed."
So: A law designed to protect people from the high cost of medical care has, instead, contributed to sharp jumps in the cost of medical care.
uncertain
law → win → care
Perhaps this should be a lesson for those who support Medicare for All.
asserted
who → support → All
Speaking of unintended consequences: So-called "inclusionary zoning" was supposed to increase the supply of affordable housing in the nation's capital.
asserted
zoning → speak → capital
Instead, per Capital Commonsense, it has made it more expensive and more difficult to build housing of any kind, and contributed to making D.C. a troubled city for housing developers and investors.
asserted
D.C. → make → developers
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
