At the last state election, Labor was returned to power in a thumping “Danslide”, as Jess Wilson entered the parliament as a first-term Liberal MP.
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Wilson → return → MP
In the four years since, Labor has been knocked off course by scandal after scandal, its approval rating has plummeted, and three premiers have led the state.
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premiers → knock → state
Polls suggest the party will be banished to the opposition benches – and replaced by a government led by Wilson.
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party → suggest → Wilson
For all of this change, however, the results in 2022 hinted at the trends now shaping the upcoming state election campaign: the warning signs for Labor in its heartland, the unexpected rise of One Nation, and the potential weakness of the Liberal Party in traditional blue-ribbon seats.
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results → hint → seats
If you scroll to the bottom of this article, you can search for your own local polling station to see how your neighbours voted last time.
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neighbours → scroll → station
Across schools, community halls and sporting clubs, The Age has analysed the results from every polling booth in 2022 to investigate what they might mean for the results on November 28.
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they → analyse → November
Worries in Labor’s northern heartland
Labor’s red wall in the northern suburbs began crumbling four years ago.
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wall → crumble → suburbs
While the Daniel Andrews-led government was convincingly re-elected, the party suffered large two-party preferred swings to the Liberals in Thomastown (11.2 per cent), Mill Park (13.5 per cent), Broadmeadows (14.8 per cent) and Greenvale (13.3 per cent).
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party → lead → Thomastown
At the Bethal Primary School booth in Greenvale, Labor’s Iwan Walters – who ultimately won the seat – suffered a whopping 33.2 per cent swing against him.
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who → win → him
This benefited the Liberals, but also conservative independent Fatma Erciyas, Family First Victoria and the Victorian Socialists.
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This → benefit → Liberals
Greenvale is a culturally diverse area and large numbers of voters have Turkish, Lebanese, Iraqi and Italian heritage.
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numbers → have → heritage
In 2026, it is being targeted by Liberal candidate Jim Overend, who has served on Hume City Council for the past six years and ran a small business.
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who → target → business
Early signs of the orange wave
One Nation was a barely visible political force in 2022, winning just 0.22 per cent of the statewide primary vote.
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Nation → win → vote
But in the seat of Morwell, about 150 kilometres east of Melbourne, the party pulled 6.1 per cent of the vote, an early signal of Pauline Hanson’s political potency in regional communities.
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party → pull → communities
At the Traralgon South Community Hall, 8.4 per cent of voters gave their vote to One Nation.
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cent → give → Nation
The booth is close to the Hazelwood coal-fired power station, a cornerstone of the local economy which closed in 2017 and resulted in hundreds of job losses.
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which → fire → losses
The electorate is one of the most disadvantaged in Victoria – the suburb of Morwell recorded an 11 per cent unemployment rate at the 2021 census, more than double the state average.
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suburb → record → census
One Nation’s vote is currently strongest in regional and rural electorates, and among older, non-university educated voters.
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vote → educate → voters
The Age’s latest Resolve Political Monitor has the party polling with a primary vote of 23 per cent in Victoria, which could result in a significant presence in both the lower and upper house.
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which → have → house
Casey Murphy, the party’s Morwell candidate, previously ran for One Nation in a supplementary election in the Gippsland seat of Narracan in early 2023.
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Murphy → run → 2023
After the success of the so-called teal independent movement at the federal election in May 2022, a host of Climate 200-backed independents ran in the Victorian state election that November.
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host → call → election
Although none were elected, several managed to put a dent in the support for major party candidates, and are running again in 2026.
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several → elect → 2026
Though Jess Wilson won the blue-ribbon seat of Kew at her first state election of 2022, the Liberal Party’s primary vote dropped by 5 per cent.
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vote → win → cent
At the Canterbury Girls Secondary College booth, Wilson’s 44.6 per cent primary vote was down 7 per cent on her party’s performance in 2018, as teal candidate Sophie Torney pulled in 25 per cent, ahead of Labor and the Greens.
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Torney → pull → Labor
Torney, who has since served as Boroondara mayor, is again challenging Wilson, this time with triple the financial backing compared to the $115,000 she raised in 2022.
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she → serve → 2022
Wilson, of course, has seen her public profile grow markedly since she became opposition leader late last year.
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she → see → course
Changing tide in the west
In 2022, the Liberal Party gained significant ground in Melbourne’s western suburbs for the first time – a momentum they will be hoping to build on to prise some electorates out of Labor’s hands later this month.
The city’s west is home to many migrants and lower-socioeconomic residents – demographics which have traditionally supported Labor.
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which → change → Labor
But the Liberals, as well as independents, fared better in 2022.
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Liberals → fare → 2022
The introduction of One Nation and The West Party – a group of locals running on a platform of community issues – further threatens Labor’s grip.
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introduction → run → grip
Melton, Werribee and Sydenham are all considered in play for conservative parties this time around.
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Melton → consider → parties
In Sydenham, Labor suffered a massive 17.5-percentage point drop in its 2022 primary vote, almost triple the statewide swing of 5.8 per cent.
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Labor → suffer → cent
At the Sydenham-Hillside Primary School booth, Labor’s primary vote plummeted by 20.9 percentage points compared to 2018, as the Liberal primary vote inched up and voters moved to other options including Family First and the Victorian Socialists.
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voters → plummet → First
Veteran MP Natalie Hutchins is not recontesting the seat this year, while concerns over data centres in the electorate are a further headache for Labor.
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concerns → reconteste → Labor
See how people voted in your area in 2022
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people → see → 2022
The polls: Wilson gains traction as Carroll’s popularity takes a dive
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popularity → gain → dive
Suburban Rail Loop: Construction will continue if the Coalition wins
- Empty lecterns: Carroll throws down the gauntlet to Wilson
- ‘Downward spiral’: The issue that’s firing up Victoria’s biggest names
Get the day’s breaking news, entertainment ideas and a long read to enjoy.
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that → continue → news
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