Prime Minister Mark Carney’s majority in Parliament won’t be tested in a series of byelections called for Dec. 7.
asserted
majority → test → Dec.
The Liberals currently hold 173 of Parliament’s 343 seats, with six vacancies now up for grabs.
asserted
Liberals → hold → grabs
Of the six ridings, three are in Quebec — where the Liberals hope to pick up a long-time NDP seat in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, as well as a former Bloc Québécois seat in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, and keep former cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault’s seat in Laurier—Sainte-Marie (a riding once held by BQ leader Gilles Duceppe), two are in Ontario — including Scarborough North (which the Liberals held), and Brantford—Brant South, a seat Conservative Larry Brock held since 2021 but which has been Conservative since 2008, and one seat is in Saskatchewan — in Yorkton—Melville, which was held by staunch Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall until she resigned in late August.
asserted
she → hope → August
It’s not inconceivable the Grits could win all six.
uncertain
Grits → ’ → six
In Quebec, Carney’s Liberals lead with 47 per cent of support, according to the most recent survey by Léger Marketing; 64 per cent of Quebec respondents report being satisfied with the performance of the government.
uncertain
cent → lead → government
The NDP seat in Quebec may be the last remaining vestige of the party’s 2011 orange wave, but it really belonged to the local MP Alexandre Boulerice.
uncertain
it → remain → MP
A well-known voice in the union movement, Boulerice quit earlier this year to run for the left-wing party Québec Solidaire and is now a member of the National Assembly (MNA).
asserted
Boulerice → know → Assembly
In Saint-Hyacinthe, the Liberals recruited Chantal Soucy, who held the riding for the Coalition Avenir Québec, the centre-right governing party that was wiped out in the last provincial election, for 12 years.
asserted
that → recruit → years
In August, she announced she wouldn’t run again, a move that came after the BQ MP for the area, Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, announced he was resigning his federal seat to run provincially.
asserted
he → announce → seat
He won the riding for the Parti Québécois last month.
asserted
He → win → Québécois
In Laurier—Sainte-Marie, the Grits recruited Guy Cormier, the former president and CEO of Desjardins, the largest federation of credit unions in North America.
asserted
Grits → recruit → America
Cormier doesn’t necessarily have a profile one associates with the urban artistic Montreal riding, but he is a star candidate, and the only one Carney highlighted Sunday on X, sending signals to voters that the banking executive is cabinet material.
asserted
executive → have → voters
The announcement also caught the eye of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s former spokesman Anthony Koch, who also took to X saying: “The Conservative Party needs to get to the point where we are willing and able to recruit talent of this calibre.
asserted
we → catch → calibre
We have a noted lack of major business experience in our caucus, and have for quite some time,” he posted.
asserted
he → have → time
This is a seat that the Liberals held under former prime minister Jean Chrétien and up until 2008.
asserted
Liberals → hold → 2008
They appointed Joy O’Donnell, the president of the local chamber of commerce and a community volunteer.
asserted
They → appoint → commerce
Meanwhile, even though Poilievre’s team knows this is a riding that will be painful to lose, they’ve managed to bungle their own chances.
asserted
they → know → chances
Instead of holding an open nomination — after being heavily criticized for appointing candidates in the last election — Poilievre (like Carney) appointed a candidate — despite two other challengers wanting to contest the seat.
asserted
challengers → hold → seat
Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis was appointed in September, but Conservative volunteer Dave Carrol, who prepared for six weeks for the nomination, hasn’t accepted it.
asserted
who → appoint → it
The Brantford Expositor reports that Carrol plans to run as an independent, citing an avalanche of outrage and support.
asserted
Carrol → report → outrage
The two Conservative candidates could split the vote and help the Liberals win.
uncertain
Liberals → split → vote
Even then, the website 338canada.com has the riding leaning Liberal.
asserted
riding → have → ?
If Poilievre isn’t able to hold on to the Ontario seat, he knows there will be caucus rumblings.
asserted
he → hold → seat
Conservative MPs abide by rules that the other parties haven’t adopted — under the Reform Act — that allow 20 per cent of the caucus to call for a leadership review.
asserted
cent → abide → review
(This is the same process that led to Erin O’Toole’s removal as Conservative leader).
asserted
that → lead → leader
The unhappy Conservative backbench may already have 28 MPs willing to sign a letter calling for a vote, but they believe a loss in Brantford would spur more support for Poilievre’s removal.
uncertain
loss → have → removal
Those calls are likely to hit fever pitch if Poilievre can’t hang on to the Saskatchewan seat.
asserted
Poilievre → hit → seat
Initially expected to be a walk in the park for the Tories — the Liberals’ appointment of well-respected Yorkton mayor Aaron Kienle throws a real wrench in those plans.
asserted
appointment → expect → plans
This is a staunch Conservative riding — Wagantall won with more than 77 per cent in 2025, and the Grits came in second, with 14 per cent of the vote.
asserted
Grits → win → vote
It’s the kind of place the Grits have traditionally had difficulty finding a candidate to run, and where the opposition to the Conservatives comes from the NDP (Lorne Nystrom held the seat from 1968 to 1993).
asserted
Nystrom → ’ → 1993
But Carney is changing the federal Liberals’ appeal across the country, and nowhere is that more obvious than in changing public support in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
asserted
that → change → Alberta
According to Abacus Data, not only is support for the Liberals and Conservatives tied in Saskatchewan, but the province’s respondents suggest Carney is more positively viewed than Poilievre.
uncertain
Carney → accord → Poilievre
The Saskatchewan contest remains an uphill battle for the Grits, but it speaks to the kind of candidates the Liberals can attract across the country, the kind the Conservatives cannot.
And that may lead to an early Christmas gift for the prime minister.
uncertain
that → remain → minister
The Aporia
