President Donald Trump's administration has made $15 billion worth of promises to agriculture producers in the last few weeks of the midterm elections, initiatives intended to help offset higher costs for diesel and fertilizer that farmers have endured largely due to his tariffs and the war in Iran.
asserted
farmers → make → Iran
Whether that will motivate more voters to turn out in agricultural states where traditionally Republican seats are now seen as competitive is unclear.
uncertain
seats → motivate → states
It may explain his increased attention on rural areas, including visits Sunday to Iowa and Kansas, two days before the election.
uncertain
It → explain → election
A look at the Republican administration's pledges to farmers:
Who these efforts will help
Besides the more than $15 billion worth of payments and initiatives announced by Trump's Department of Agriculture, the agency plans $13.8 billion in safety net program payments for eligible producers for the 2025 crop year, offsetting shortfalls for farmers who grow key crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and rice.
asserted
who → help → corn
Of the $15 billion, more than half will go toward an $8 billion one-time payment plan for farmers buffeted by soaring diesel prices.
asserted
half → go → prices
The USDA said it will release more details about the payments this month.
asserted
it → say → payments
It is not clear when the payments will go to farmers, who rely on diesel for trucks, tractors and combines.
asserted
who → go → trucks
Gregg Ibendahl, a farm management specialist at Kansas State University, said he estimates the payments to “more than cover the increase in fuel costs,” and that the money could help with high fertilizer prices.
uncertain
money → say → prices
At least $5 billion was announced in guaranteed loans for ranchers and fishermen.
asserted
billion → announce → ranchers
An additional $1.8 billion in payments is for producers and landowners who participated in conservation programs, $573 million will go toward fertilizer manufacturing projects and $57 million is for expanding meat processors.
asserted
million → participate → processors
For specialty crop producers, $86.6 million in grants will be awarded to innovative projects.
asserted
million → award → projects
On Thursday, the agency said it would purchase up to $472.5 million in agricultural commodities to support producers and give to charitable programs.
asserted
it → say → programs
The USDA also announced other efforts, such as expanding sales of a diesel normally used only for off-road use, helping ranchers by making cattle sale data more transparent and strengthening wolf management policies to protect livestock.
asserted
data → announce → livestock
Why farmers are struggling
It has been a frustrating year for farmers.
asserted
It → struggle → farmers
Increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have made it difficult to turn a profit.
asserted
it → increase → profit
Last year, tariffs drove up expenses for other equipment that farmers use, and the trade war with China resulted in a near boycott of U.S. agricultural goods.
asserted
war → drive → goods
On Friday, diesel was averaging $6.32 per gallon, down slightly from its peak in September but 70% higher than the price a year ago, according to motor club AAA.
uncertain
diesel → average → AAA
Filling up a 100-gallon tank now costs $260 more than it did one year ago.
asserted
it → fill → tank
“That input side risk, I think, is the thing that really has hurt farmers this year, as well as the fact that there has been a lot more uncertainty about what’s going to happen in the world,” Ibendahl said.
asserted
Ibendahl → think → world
He said he expects these ad hoc payments to be a big help for farmers who otherwise would not make a profit this year, but they do not address the broader issues driving up prices.
asserted
they → say → prices
“It’s hard to go to your lender in the next spring and say, ‘OK, well, we’re looking pretty good this year, but it’s all because of these extra temporary government payments, so how much can you make me a loan (for) next year for my crop?’” he said.
asserted
he → ’ → crop
Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, said she has heard mixed reactions from farmers, who are happy their business will survive this year but see these programs as one-time bailouts rather than a long-term solution.
asserted
business → say → solution
What farmers may vote on
Rural voters, including farmers and those who rely on the agricultural economy, have been an instrumental voting group for Trump.
uncertain
who → vote → Trump
Michael Smith, a political science professor at Emporia State University, said many rural voters like the president, but some of his policies have hurt the agriculture industry.
asserted
some → say → industry
Immigrant deportations have threatened the agricultural labor force, and cuts to foreign aid and SNAP food stamps hurt the market for agricultural products.
asserted
cuts → threaten → products
“Some people who admire Trump really just admire the person, the man,” he said.
asserted
he → admire → person
“But it doesn’t mean they necessarily like his policies.
asserted
they → mean → policies
Cost of living and access to health care are top issues for rural voters, Middlewood said.
asserted
Middlewood → say → voters
She added that there is a perception the administration has not done enough to address these issues, even as Trump boasts at campaign rallies about a booming economy.
asserted
Trump → add → economy
Middlewood, who is based in Kansas, does not expect frustrated rural voters to shift to the Democratic Party, given how long the state has been a Republican stronghold.
asserted
state → base → Party
But some voters may decide to sit out of this election or vote independent, which would hurt Republican candidates.
uncertain
which → decide → candidates
“Independent voters make or break elections," she said.
asserted
she → make → elections
"And so that’s really what it’s going to come down to this year is those independent voters and who they’re breaking for.”
asserted
they → ’ → who
The Aporia
