Experts, former officials weigh in on whether Trump blames Canada if Republicans lose
In most U.S. elections, Canada never comes up.
asserted
Canada → weigh → elections
From ads in Michigan and New Hampshire, to stump speeches and debates in New York and Iowa — plus interviews in Nevada and Alaska — the word "Canada" is coming up repeatedly as affordability takes centre stage.
asserted
affordability → come → stage
Democrats are seizing on Trump's Canadian tariffs to prosecute a larger argument about his care for Americans' cost of living, while Republicans are either defending the tariffs for the sake of protecting the U.S. economy — or distancing themselves.
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Republicans → seize → themselves
He and other U.S. officials teased a potential trade deal earlier this week, though sources told CBC News that despite intensified talks, it does not mean an imminent agreement.
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it → tease → agreement
But what does it mean for Canada to be in the U.S. midterm spotlight, and will the results on Tuesday be a blessing or a curse for Canadians?
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results → mean → Canadians
CBC's The House spoke to experts and former officials about Canada's significance — and the risk that Trump could blame Canada if he loses.
uncertain
he → speak → Canada
How much does Canada matter?
asserted
Canada → matter → ?
Polls show Trump's dispute with Canada is deeply unpopular among American voters in both major parties.
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dispute → show → parties
And for U.S. states close to the Canadian border or which do a lot of trade, Canada has "become a bread-and-butter kitchen table issue," said Scotty Greenwood, a Canada-U.S. relations specialist and founder of Ottawa Street Strategy.
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Greenwood → do → Strategy
"The tariffs, particularly on Canada, but tariff policy in general, makes the cost of living way higher for Americans.
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cost → make → Americans
And so that's how it's come to pass that Canada is a ballot question in a bunch of U.S. races," Greenwood said.
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Greenwood → come → races
The challenge for Republicans, and opportunity for Democrats, is that many races in those states — like Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Nevada — will decide whether the Democrats retake the House of Representatives and Senate.
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Democrats → decide → Representatives
In Maine, for example, incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins said during a debate earlier this month that she has been "the most outspoken opponent of the tariffs with Canada."
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she → say → Canada
Over the last two months, Trump has shifted around his Canadian tariffs to give Maine residents relief, and Collins has claimed credit.
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Collins → shift → credit
Trump lifted tariffs on Canadian cement and road salt in September, then scrapped duties on another array of products in October.
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Trump → lift → October
Troy Jackson, right, is challenging Maine Sen. Susan Collins for her seat, and has attacked Collins for her response to Trump's trade war with Canada.
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Jackson → challenge → Canada
But Collins's Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, has seized on the issue and dismissed her approach, arguing Maine residents "can't eat road salt."
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residents → seize → salt
Polls suggest Jackson is in the lead by a few points.
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Jackson → suggest → points
Emily Cain, a former Maine state senator and Democrat, says she doesn't think anyone expected Canada to feature so prominently in the Senate race.
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Canada → say → race
And while Collins has persevered before, Cain added that she is now facing her biggest challenge.
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she → persevere → challenge
"Donald Trump should be bracing for a bad night on Tuesday night," Cain said.
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Cain → brace → night
These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency
'Canada is not our enemy': Michigan Republican Senate candidate breaks with Trump on trade war
Another example is Michigan, where Republican senate candidate Mike Rogers is squaring off against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
asserted
Rogers → decide → Sayed
Rogers has worked to distance himself from Trump's tariffs, noting, like Collins, that Canada is not an enemy.
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Canada → work → Collins
Dennis Lennox, a Republican political strategist in Michigan, told The House that Canada is "not coming up every day" in discussions, but is a key figure in the larger debate about Trump's trade agenda.
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Canada → tell → agenda
Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Mike Rogers, left, listens to a supporter during a campaign event Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, in Muskegon, Michigan.
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Rogers → listen → Muskegon
Lennox also said he thinks there are many Americans who are still willing to give Trump leeway on his tariffs to see if they will achieve their stated purpose of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
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they → say → States
"If you don't start seeing more concrete results from the Trump trade policy, you're going to see the pushback amongst Americans grow and it's gonna be louder," Lennox said.
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Lennox → start → Americans
Could Trump punish Canada if he loses?
uncertain
he → punish → Canada
In the leadup to Tuesday, Trump and his representatives have regularly attacked Canada.
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Trump → attack → Canada
Last week, the U.S. president said during a campaign rally that he'd let Canada keep ice hockey and its national anthem if it joined the United States.
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it → say → States
Also last week, the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa released what it described as examples of Canadian officials trying to influence the midterm elections.
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officials → release → elections
The list included statements from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly and others.
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list → include → Ford
When asked about the possibility of retaliation if Trump loses the midterms, John Bolton, a former adviser, told The House that nothing can be ruled out.
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nothing → ask → House
Former Trump adviser John Bolton, right, speaks beside moderator Prof. Jeff Frankel during an appearance at Harvard University on Sept. 29, 2025, in Cambridge, Mass.
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Bolton → speak → Cambridge
Trump is a winner; therefore, he will not lose on Tuesday.
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he → lose → Tuesday
It will be their fault because it's never his fault," Bolton said.
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Bolton → say → ?
Greenwood said that the Trump administration will be looking for a "pre-buttle" if the Republicans lose the midterms, but she isn't sure if that blame will fall on Canada.
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blame → say → Canada
"I don't think that will pass the smell test, to be honest," Greenwood said.
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Greenwood → think → test
Canada not in a 'position right now' to agree to U.S. trade deal, Carney says
Facing a potential $40M US tariff bill, this American importer is suing Trump to end some tariffs on Canada
As for the prospect of a trade deal, Greenwood said even if Democrats retake the two chambers of Congress, Trump still has "an awful lot of time left and executive authority left, particularly with respect to foreign policy and trade policy."
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Trump → agree → policy
"So it's not like everything is going to change for Canada/U.S., the day after election day or the day after the new Congress is sworn in in January.
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Congress → go → January
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
