As the US midterm elections get closer, Donald Trump's polling numbers keep diving further underwater.
asserted
numbers → get → ?
And Republican Senate candidates are becoming more vocal about their differences with the president.
asserted
candidates → become → president
Michigan's Mike Rogers, an early tariffs supporter, is now calling for an end to the Canada trade war.
asserted
Rogers → call → war
New Hampshire's John Sununu, who initially praised Trump's decision to attack Iran, now criticises the plan as flawed.
asserted
who → praise → plan
And Ohio's Jon Husted, who has championed data centres for years, now says they should only be built where the locals want them.
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locals → champion → them
But in Maine, Susan Collins can lay claim to a long history of disagreements with Trump.
uncertain
Collins → lay → Trump
The veteran Republican, a fixture of the Senate since Bill Clinton was president, even voted to convict Trump after he was impeached over the January 6 insurrection.
"I'm not exactly his favourite senator," she said during one recent debate.
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she → vote → debate
"I vote very independently," she told another.
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she → vote → another
Talking up her differences with Trump is a central part of Collins's strategy to keep her seat.
asserted
Talking → talk → seat
It could be the key to helping his Republican Party keep control of the Senate.
uncertain
Party → help → Senate
Lost support
Republicans see the Maine Senate seat as one they cannot afford to lose.
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they → lose → one
About twice as many Mainers disapprove of his performance than approve, according to Civiqs' public opinion tracker.
uncertain
Mainers → disapprove → tracker
So the question is: Has Collins done enough to convince Mainers she will stand up to Trump when it counts?
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it → do → Trump
For Lee Umphrey, who had consistently voted for Collins up until this year, the answer is no.
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answer → vote → year
"I've known her a long time, she's done a lot of good, and for organisations like ours she has been very reliable," said Umphrey, who runs a community development corporation in Bangor, where Collins lives.
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Collins → know → Bangor
"[But] this is really a referendum on President Trump's executive power and the abuses connected to that."
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this → connect → that
He listed examples including the Elon Musk-led slashing of government services, cuts to Medicaid health insurance under the "Big Beautiful Bill", tariffs on Canada, and the war in Iran.
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He → list → Iran
'Women felt betrayed'
asserted
Women → feel → ?
To some extent, Collins split with Trump on all four examples listed by Umphrey.
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Collins → split → Umphrey
She voiced opposition to some DOGE cuts, voted against the Big Beautiful Bill, criticised the Canada tariffs, and supported Democrat-led resolutions to end the war.
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She → voice → war
She points to wins like her successful efforts to boost rural health funding in the Big Beautiful Bill and to remove tariffs from some Canadian products, including rock salt used on Maine's icy roads in winter.
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She → point → winter
Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, mocks what he sees as meek efforts for meagre concessions.
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he → mock → concessions
"She's like an arsonist who helped set the fire and then she wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out," he said in one recent debate.
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he → set → debate
Her critics argue she too often caves to pressure.
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she → argue → pressure
"I'm sure that she has done good things for the state of Maine and for the country, but of late, ever since Trump has been on the scene, she's mostly been complicit," said Mary Ann Larson, part of a group that holds weekly protests against Collins and Trump.
asserted
that → do → Collins
Like many in Maine, Larson has not forgotten Collins's role in appointing Supreme Court judges that overturned abortion rights, including her critical vote to confirm Trump-nominee Brett Kavanaugh's appointment in 2018.
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that → forget → 2018
"So many women felt betrayed by that," Larson said.
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Larson → betray → that
"We're half the population and we basically were disenfranchised by that vote."
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we → disenfranchise → vote
Collins has a history of outperforming the polls.
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Collins → have → polls
When she was last up for election six years ago, polls predicted she would lose.
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she → predict → election
But she won by nine percentage points.
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she → win → points
Democrats' hopes for her defeat were high again earlier this year, as candidate Graham Platner attracted a huge groundswell of grassroots support.
But he was forced out of the race in July after being accused of sexual assault (which he denies).
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he → attract → which
One of the biggest blows to Collins's campaign came in September, when ProPublica published an investigation into alleged bribery.
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ProPublica → come → bribery
Jackson called it "corruption of the highest order" but Collins denied wrongdoing, and the allegations do not look to have significantly dented her re-election effort.
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allegations → call → effort
Some of Collins's enduring electoral success is attributed to her work on low-key local issues and dealings with constituents.
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Some → endure → constituents
Some locals offer personal stories when asked for their views on the senator, like Bangor local Lisa Thomas, who said she had bumped into Collins several times at the shops.
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she → offer → shops
"About four years ago we were talking about pot roasts, and she gave me her mother's recipe.
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she → talk → recipe
I've used it ever since, and it's great," said Thomas.
asserted
Thomas → use → it
"Each time I see her, I always come to shake her hand and say, 'I appreciate you, I appreciate what you stand for, for goodness and equality.'
asserted
you → see → goodness
"
Broken promises
Thomas was collecting a Susan Collins lawn sign at a family day for conservatives at a Bangor church, co-sponsored by the Republican Party.
asserted
Thomas → collect → Party
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
