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Trump's immigration policies helped him win but now threaten to backfire

Read the original at ABC News (AU) ↗
Cite

Ryan, B., Hosier, P., & Gramenz, a. E. (2026, October 28). Trump's immigration policies helped him win but now threaten to backfire. ABC News (AU). https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/how-ice-immigration-crackdown-could-impact-midterms/107315220

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

ABC News (AU) · collected 2026-10-28 · by Brad Ryan, Phoebe Hosier, and Emilie Gramenz

Quick Summary

The article discusses how Trump's immigration policies helped him win votes but are now causing backlash. It centers on Margarida Celestino’s father, Nguinamau Celestino, an engineer from Angola who was detained by ICE while trying to visit his son in Washington DC. Despite having a work permit and no criminal record, Mr. Celestino was arrested at the airport under Trump's stricter immigration policies. ICE claims this aligns with their goal of preventing unauthorized immigrants from traveling within the U.S., despite court rulings against such measures. The article notes that while these policies were initially popular, recent polls show growing disapproval among Americans, potentially harming Republicans in upcoming midterms.
Written by AI on 2026-10-31, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Trump's immigration policies, which helped him win the 2024 election by promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorized immigrants, have now alienated many Latino voters. A case in point involves Margarida Celestino, an aged care worker whose father, Nguinamau Celestino, was detained by ICE at a Maine airport while trying to visit his teenage son in Washington DC. Despite having a clean record and holding valid work permits for almost a decade as he awaited the processing of his asylum application, Mr. Celestino was labeled an "illegal alien" and taken into custody. This incident highlights how Trump's hardline stance is causing friction with Latino communities who feel betrayed by the enforcement tactics.

Written for “Trump's Immigration Policies Backfire” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but 1 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 1 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 112858: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-31

Story

📰 Trump's Immigration Policies Backfire
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 11% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
BBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 65 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of immigration policies and their impacts on individuals but do not describe the same specific incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
44
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
11%
5 of 44 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
68/100
ABC News (AU)'s corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-31 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

ABC News (AU) · 4440 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Brad Ryan
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Mr Trump was elected promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorised immigrants, but said criminals would remain the focus.
🔮 Susan Collins carries herself like she could have run an etiquette school if she hadn't spent her life in politics.
🔮 New York's attorney general says the case will be reinvestigated and prosecutions may be pursued.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · NY governor slams handling of Cornell 'gang-rape' case
🔮 Senator Farrell floated the idea, which could see Australians' superannuation savings invested in the American sector, during this week's G20 trade meetings in Milwaukee.
🔮 He said his country had been "victims of terrorism" and would never "bend at the knee" in response to US-Israeli attacks or economic pressure.
🔮 Mr Trump sharply smacked down that proposal during his speech today, saying the US would not "stifle growth of something that will be bigger than the industrial revolution". British Prime Minister Andy Burnham picked up on the comparison in his own speech, noting that the industrial revolution "brought huge suffering and exploitation" for workers.
🔮 "Too much bureaucratic, you know, sticking points, not enough money, not enough political will.
🔮 Senator Sanders will introduce a bill that would pause advanced AI development, but similar attempts to legislate have stalled in Congress in recent years.
🔮 He suggested regulating AI would only help China get ahead of the US, and he criticised Dario Amodei, the CEO of AI giant Anthropic who published an essay about AI's dangers over the weekend.
Also by Brad Ryan
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by Brad Ryan →
Phoebe Hosier
4 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Mr Trump was elected promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorised immigrants, but said criminals would remain the focus.
🔮 Maybe you even ratchet it up."
🔮 A student has told the ABC she hopes this will be a turning point for the university.
Also by Phoebe Hosier
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
and Emilie Gramenz
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Mr Trump was elected promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorised immigrants, but said criminals would remain the focus.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

America Angola ICE Immigration and Customs Enforcement Maine

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 10× Celestino PERSON · 5× ICE ORG · 5× Maine GPE · 3× America GPE · 2× Angola GPE · 2× Biden PERSON · 2× Immigration and Customs Enforcement ORG · 1× Margarida Celestino PERSON · 1× Nguinamau Celestino PERSON · 1×

Narrative

"The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today." Latino voters make up the largest ethnic minority in the US and polling data shows a relatively large proportion are swing voters. But political strategist Mike Madrid, an expert on Latino voting trends, does not expect immigration issues to significantly shift the so-called Latino vote.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-31
🔮 Mr Trump was elected promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorised immigrants, but said criminals would remain the focus.
2026-10-31 · ABC News (AU)
Trump's immigration policies helped him win but now threaten to backfire · assertive framing

Claims (44 extracted, 5 hedged)

As she was sleeping in the early hours of October 9, aged care worker Margarida Celestino missed an important call from her father. asserted
Celestino → sleep → father
Nguinamau Celestino, an engineer originally from Angola, was trying to reach her from inside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility. asserted
Celestino → try → facility
His family, who had been working through an asylum application for almost a decade, realised he had been locked up when they checked his phone's location later that morning. asserted
they → work → location
"There's no reason why he should be there," Ms Celestino said. asserted
Celestino → be → ?
"He has a clean record, he has all his paperwork, and [my parents] have followed all the steps that is required to make the asylum [claim]." uncertain
that → have → claim
Mr Celestino had a permit to work in America while he waited for his claim to be processed, his daughter said. uncertain
daughter → have → America
He had a job installing heating and plumbing systems in Maine. asserted
He → have → Maine
Despite that, ICE calls Mr Celestino an "illegal alien". asserted
ICE → call → Celestino
It says he should have returned to Angola in 2018. asserted
he → say → 2018
Its agents detained him at a Maine airport as he prepared to visit his teenage son in Washington DC, where he attends a school for deaf students. asserted
he → detain → students
The Celestino family's story is a familiar one in America: asylum seekers are frequently detained despite holding permits allowing them to work in the US, where many have built new lives. asserted
many → detain → lives
In a statement, ICE acknowledged the Trump administration viewed their rights differently to the previous administration of Joe Biden and the courts. asserted
administration → acknowledge → Biden
Mr Celestino's airport arrest represented a reversal of "the horrendous Biden-era policy that allowed aliens in our country illegally to jet around our country", it said. asserted
it → represent → country
"This administration is working diligently to ensure that aliens in our country illegally can no longer fly unless it is out of our country to self-deport, despite left-wing judges determined to exempt illegal aliens from abiding by our nation's laws. asserted
it → work → laws
Rhetoric vs reality Thousands of similar stories have been playing out under the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, which was a vote winner in the 2024 presidential election but is proving more divisive in the lead-up to next week's critical midterms. asserted
which → play → midterms
Many polls show most Americans think it has gone too far. asserted
it → show → ?
A Fox News poll this month showed 56 per cent of respondents disapproved of Mr Trump's handling of immigration. asserted
cent → show → immigration
"An issue that was a completely winning electoral issue for the Trump administration and the Republicans when President Trump came back to the White House has suddenly become a liability," said Muzaffar Chishti, director of the Migration Policy Institute at New York University. asserted
Chishti → win → University
LoadingIn past years, and particularly under Mr Biden, ICE targeted serious criminals. asserted
ICE → target → criminals
Mr Trump was elected promising mass deportations and a crackdown on unauthorised immigrants, but said criminals would remain the focus. asserted
criminals → elect → immigrants
His officials insist that is still the case. asserted
that → insist → ?
"We go after the worst of the worst every single day," Homeland Security secretary Markwayne Mullin told a recent news conference. asserted
Mullin → go → conference
But advocates and analysts say the rhetoric does not square with the reality. asserted
rhetoric → say → reality
"The principal difference between Trump two and even Trump one compared to all other administrations is that it is not targeted," Mr Chishti said. asserted
Chishti → compare → administrations
In Maine, for example, most people arrested by ICE this year had no criminal convictions or pending charges, according to records obtained by university researchers and analysed by local media. uncertain
people → arrest → media
"We have found that the vast majority of the folks that are being subjected to enforcement are people who are undergoing the immigration process," Ruben Torres from the Maine Immigrants' Rights Coalition said. asserted
Torres → find → Coalition
Pollsters say Mr Trump's approval ratings on immigration really started to dive at the start of the year, after two activists were killed by agents in separate shootings in Minnesota. asserted
activists → say → Minnesota
Agents have killed nine people and injured 13 others in at least 30 shootings since Mr Trump's re-election, according to a CBS News count. uncertain
Agents → kill → count
Viral videos of violent arrests have also fed into public anger over ICE tactics. asserted
videos → feed → tactics
It has overshadowed the Trump administration's successes on the US-Mexico border, where unauthorised border crossings have been significantly reduced since Mr Biden was in office. asserted
Biden → overshadow → office
Quinnipac Polling analyst Tim Malloy said border control had been "an upside for the Trump administration", but Mr Trump had suffered in the polls because many Americans believed the crackdown was carried out with "brutality and callousness". asserted
crackdown → say → brutality
"Then you throw in Minnesota and LA and any number of different stories a week — people getting shot on the street or the wrong person being deported. asserted
person → throw → street
It just piled up," he said. asserted
he → pile → ?
"And it piled up as Trump was losing ground in a lot of other areas: on foreign policy, on the economy and the war." The Latino vote Some Republican candidates in areas with large Latino populations have been critical of the crackdown, conscious of the sensitivities for their constituencies on top of the broader public backlash. asserted
candidates → pile → backlash
"Mr President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far," Florida congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar said in a TV ad. asserted
Salazar → go → ad
"The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today." Latino voters make up the largest ethnic minority in the US and polling data shows a relatively large proportion are swing voters. But political strategist Mike Madrid, an expert on Latino voting trends, does not expect immigration issues to significantly shift the so-called Latino vote. asserted
issues → help → vote
"It's nowhere near the top issue," he said. asserted
he → say → issue
"You'll find a lot of times these [immigration issues] are bigger motivators for white folks than they are for Latino folks." Protests and pushback Indeed, in Maine, one of America's whitest states, days of protests in January led to the state's Republican senator successfully pushing ICE to dial back an enforcement surge. asserted
senator → find → surge
More protests broke out after an agent fatally shot Colombian man Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero, 25, during a traffic stop in July. But activists who monitor the state's ICE headquarters say they still see multiple people taken in each day. asserted
people → break → headquarters
"These are loving members of our community who go to our churches, who spend time with their neighbours and their friends," activist Alessandra, who asked her surname not be published, told the ABC outside the facility. asserted
surname → love → facility
…and 4 more, not listed.
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