Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
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that → welcome → House
In today’s edition, we have the latest midterm campaign trail updates from our reporters in the field.
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Plus, Kristen Welker shares the top Senate races she will be watching Tuesday.
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she → share → races
With the midterm elections reaching their conclusion in just four days, NBC News reporters are spread out across the country, speaking with candidates, operatives and voters about the dynamics shaping the biggest races on the map.
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reporters → reach → map
The fallout from Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent, Amy Acton, has been a galvanizing moment for Democrats in a state that became redder with President Donald Trump’s rise in politics after a long run as one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds, Henry J. Gomez reports from Liberty Township.
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A private poll paid for by a Republican group this week showed Ramaswamy trailing Acton by 8 percentage points — a 6-point drop from an earlier survey, said a GOP strategist who works on Ohio races.
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who → pay → races
Similar numbers have rattled around Republican circles for days.
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numbers → rattle → days
During a campaign event for Republican Mike Rogers, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, described Democrat Abdul El-Sayed — who, if elected, would be the first Muslim senator — as “a theocratic zealot” and “jihadist leprechaun” whose election would put American service members at risk because, if presented with national secrets, he would be likely to share them with terrorist groups.
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Cruz, like other Republicans, sought to link El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group the Democrat has condemned.
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As Allan Smith writes from Grosse Pointe Woods, Cruz’s message has become a staple of the anti-El-Sayed messaging, with Republicans leaning into the theme in advertising and at campaign events.
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message → write → events
And they’ve been echoed by some voters.
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they → echo → voters
While the Southern battleground has two marquee contests on the ballot next week, only the race for the state’s top job between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson remains tight.
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race → have → Bottoms
In the Senate race, polls broadly show Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff with a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, Rep. Mike Collins.
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polls → show → challenger
Bottoms and Jackson both have their eye on winning over a potentially critical slice of the electorate that is supporting Ossoff in the Senate race in the final stretch of the race, Adam Edelman reports from Atlanta.
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Bottoms has campaigned alongside Ossoff and run ads touting his endorsement, while Jackson has backed away from casting himself as a staunch ally of Trump as he did during his GOP primary.
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he → campaign → primary
Trump has spent nearly every day this month crisscrossing the country to turn out Republican voters in tight Senate races.
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But he’s steered clear of the Granite State, which he lost in all three presidential contests.
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he → steer → contests
Republican John E. Sununu is reminding the state’s fiercely independent voters that he is not tied to Trump, Brennan Leach and Julie Tsirkin note from Rye.
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He tells voters in a direct-to-camera TV ad released this month: “I’ve never even met the man!”
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Closing message: On the airwaves, Democratic Senate candidates have been far more likely to reference corruption, high costs and Trump, while Republicans have been more focused on immigration, crime and transgender issues.
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That’s according to an analysis from Bridget Bowman of more than 600 TV ads that launched in October.
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The key Senate races I’m watching on election night
Analysis by Kristen Welker
Can Democrats turn their recent momentum in red and purple states into a Senate majority?
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While the battlefield has expanded in recent weeks, here are the races I will be keeping a particularly close eye on next Tuesday.
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The contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers will be a critical test of whether a progressive candidate can win in a swing state as Democrats start to fix their eyes on 2028.
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Democrats → win → 2028
President Donald Trump won Michigan by less than 1 percentage point in 2024, but voters in a state driven by the auto industry are grappling with high gas prices and costly trade wars with neighboring Canada.
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voters → win → Canada
Still, Michigan represents one of Republicans’ few pickup opportunities, and if they are able to flip it, that would give them a major boost as they try to maintain Senate control.
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Sen. John Husted, who was appointed to the seat previously held by Vice President JD Vance, is facing off against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who is on a comeback tour after losing to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.
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who → appoint → 2024
The race has been affected by the governor’s contest, where Republican Vivek Ramaswamy ran that controversial ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother.
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The ad, which is no longer running, was met with bipartisan backlash.
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But could it still serve as a drag on Husted?
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Trump’s endorsement power will be put to the test in the Lone Star State.
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power → put → State
He ignored concerns from Republicans that GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton would be a weak general election candidate and endorsed him over Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff.
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Since then, Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into defending the seat.
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If James Talarico manages to flip it, it will be the first time Democrats have won a Senate seat in Texas in more than three decades.
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Despite winning Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, Trump has made three trips to the state this month alone.
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There’s a chance control of the Senate could come down to Alaska — and if that happens, it could be several weeks before we know the outcome, given ranked choice voting and the pre-emptive legal challenges developing there.
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State and federal investigations are now underway after The New York Times reported that Democratic operatives were involved in recruiting a second Dan Sullivan to appear on the ballot in an effort to pull votes away from incumbent Republican with the same name.
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Democrat Mary Peltola and her campaign have denied being involved in the effort.
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This Sunday on “Meet the Press,” Steve Kornacki will join me to break down the results of the last NBC News poll before Election Day.
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I’ll also interview Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee; Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md.; and Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker.
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I → interview → Committee
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
