"We had a couple of Snowy Hydro execs having a beer in the corner, and the plans for Snowy 2.0 were just drawn out on a coaster," the publican of the Alpine Hotel in Cooma told the ABC's Four Corners program in 2023.
asserted
publican → have → 2023
As it turned out, it was not that easy.
asserted
it → turn → ?
A recent major review of the project cited design immaturities and building complexities among the reasons for the $25 billion price tag, about 12 times the original cost.
asserted
review → cite → tag
"It was a political announcement at the time," said Stephanie Bashir, a former AGL Energy executive and now CEO of Nexa Energy.
asserted
Bashir → say → Energy
"If they had just taken a bit more time at the start … but I mean, that's history now and we've got to keep moving on.
asserted
we → take → start
"
Batteries getting bigger, able to run longer
It was March 2017 when then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced Snowy 2.0, during a heated national debate around climate and energy policy that would eventually factor in to his political downfall.
asserted
that → get → downfall
It came in the months after a freak storm in late 2016 sparked the infamous South Australia blackout, exposing the fragility of a grid transitioning to renewables.
asserted
storm → come → renewables
At the time, big grid-scale batteries did not really exist.
asserted
batteries → exist → time
Remember when Elon Musk and Mike Cannon-Brookes made a bet on Twitter to build the world's biggest battery in South Australia in 100 days?
asserted
Musk → remember → days
Nearly 10 years on, the latest quarterly report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) shows the contribution of big batteries to evening out power in Australia's biggest grid has more than doubled in a year, overtaking gas.
asserted
contribution → show → gas
As a result, power prices in the last quarter fell to their lowest average since 2021.
asserted
prices → fall → 2021
Next to the Eraring, NSW coal-fired power station, which is set to close in 2029, Origin Energy is building a series of battery storage systems.
asserted
Energy → fire → systems
The latest is flagged to have 500 megawatts of capacity with the ability to supply power for eight hours — enough storage to run hundreds of thousands of homes.
asserted
latest → flag → homes
AEMO has approved 3.6 gigawatts in battery projects, which will come online between 2028-29, about the same time Snowy 2.0 is set to be finished.
asserted
Snowy → approve → 2028
Apartment dwellers will soon be able to hang solar panels off their balconies and plug portable, esky-sized batteries into the wall.
asserted
dwellers → hang → wall
Trials are also underway to plug electric cars into the home and connect them to the grid.
"
asserted
Trials → plug → grid
We had centralised energy, and we're moving to more decentralised energy," Ms Bashir said
"Wind farms, solar farms, batteries, they can be located anywhere.
asserted
they → have → energy
"
Where does this leave Snowy 2.0?
asserted
this → leave → Snowy
It stands for hours.
asserted
It → stand → hours
Gigawatts (GW) measure how much power can be delivered at once.
asserted
power → measure → ?
Gigawatt-hours (GWh) tell us how much energy is available to be delivered over time.
asserted
energy → tell → time
Snowy 2.0 has a generating capacity of 2.2GW, and the water stored in its reservoir provides 350GWh of energy storage, according to Snowy Hydro.
uncertain
water → have → Hydro
So while Origin might be building a battery that can run for about eight hours, Snowy 2.0 can run for about 160 hours — or as its promotional material suggests, about long enough to power 3 million homes for a week.
uncertain
material → build → week
"We have so many batteries being installed, but it still adds up to being about kind of 30 gigawatt hours," professor Marnie Shaw, an energy infrastructure expert from Australian National University, said.
asserted
Shaw → have → University
AEMO's energy road map to 2050 says Australia needs about 650GWh of dispatchable storage, and with its 350GWh, Dr Shaw said Snowy 2.0 made up more than half of that.
asserted
Snowy → say → that
"So the majority of our energy, our long-term energy storage in the future, is being supplied by Snowy 2.0," she said.
asserted
she → supply → Snowy
But Bruce Mountain from Victoria University has long questioned how useful that capacity would be in practice.
asserted
capacity → question → practice
"The top reservoir does not have a water supply of its own," Dr Mountain told the ABC's Business Daily this week.
asserted
Mountain → have → Daily
"The problem is you need to pump the water up to the upper dam, which means you need to have the water available in a lower dam, which only gets some water from a river."
asserted
which → need → river
"This fantastic ability to run flat out for a week is a service that is simply not practically usable because once you've done that, you've spent your resource."
asserted
you → run → resource
Snowy as an insurance policy
There are also questions about how often Snowy 2.0's enormous storage capacity will be needed, according to associate professor Roger Dargaville, an energy systems and storage expert from Monash University.
uncertain
capacity → be → University
"The idea that you would need to run the Snowy 2.0 for two weeks continuously, it's not very likely that would actually eventuate," he said.
asserted
he → need → weeks
"It's nice to have as an insurance policy in case.
asserted
It → have → case
But Snowy 2.0 does have an advantage because achieving the same amount of deep storage with batteries is much more expensive.
asserted
achieving → have → batteries
"The difference for pumped hydro is to have more hours of storage, you just make the reservoir bigger, which is only a small component of the total system," Dr Dargaville said.
asserted
Dargaville → pump → system
"Whereas for batteries, if you want to double the storage, it is doubling the cost."
asserted
it → want → cost
The future is modular
Snowy 2.0's cost blowout will continue to be a focus for critics, and nobody could have foreseen how fundamentally the energy landscape in Australia would change in just 10 years.
"At $24 or $25 billion, we're starting to question whether it makes sense anymore," Dr Dargaville said.
uncertain
Dargaville → continue → sense
"And it's going to require really, really high volatility in the market for it to make its money back.
asserted
it → go → money
"
But Snowy 2.0 is built to operate for 150 years, long after the talk of cost blowouts has faded.
asserted
talk → build → blowouts
"There will always be volatility in the market in a renewable energy system, and storage will always be useful," Dr Dargaville said.
asserted
Dargaville → say → system
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia