With the midterms approaching, the climate crisis doesn’t seem to be top of mind for most voters.
asserted
crisis → approach → voters
In a recent poll, voters told Gallup that, among 11 issues, the economy, health care, and the war in Iran are the top of their concerns when it comes to this election season.
asserted
it → tell → season
That doesn’t mean climate isn’t on the ballot.
asserted
climate → mean → ballot
The midterms come as the U.S. has faced a slew of climate rollbacks under the first two years of the Trump Administration, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, rolling back the landmark endangerment finding, and leasing public lands for oil and gas drilling.
asserted
U.S. → come → drilling
With Democrats being significantly more likely to view climate action as a priority, many in the climate movement are hopeful that if the Democrats take back some leadership in Congress, as it could prove essential in helping to prevent further rollbacks.
uncertain
it → view → rollbacks
“A new government could stop the bleeding,” says Malcolm Araos, assistant professor at the Wagner School of Public Service at New York University, whose work focuses on the politics of climate policy.
uncertain
work → stop → policy
“A new Congress, or new Senate can't reverse [many of the climate rollbacks], but they could investigate why [they were] repealed, and they could stop things like that from happening in the future.”
uncertain
they → reverse → future
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be determined on Tuesday, Nov. 3, while 35 Senate seats are up for election.
asserted
seats → determine → election
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → need → Senate
Why local elections matter these midterms
With a low likelihood of federal climate policy under Trump, regardless of the outcome of the midterms, state races are where most environmental advocates are looking.
asserted
advocates → look → midterms
That’s because state-level elections still leave open the potential for local climate action—especially if Democrats can manage a “trifecta” and win the governor’s mansion and a majority in both chambers, says Geoffrey Henderson, assistant professor of environmental policy and planning at the University of Michigan.
asserted
Henderson → ’ → Michigan
“We've seen in recent history that when we have Democratic trifectas at the state level, that lends itself to an opportunity to pass pretty transformative climate policies,” he says.
asserted
he → see → policies
“It's often underrated how important state level races are, because there are states like Michigan that are not currently Democratic trifectas, but that could shift back in that direction…and that can really unlock major policy change.
uncertain
that → be → change
Since President Trump took office, several states, including California, Virginia, and Colorado have pushed forward climate policies despite federal rollbacks.
asserted
states → take → rollbacks
Climate ballot measures to watch in the midterm elections
A number of climate measures are also on the ballot in several states.
asserted
number → watch → states
In Colorado, Amendment 82 will have voters deciding on the constitutional right to buy and sell natural gas—a measure that critics say, if passed, could challenge climate policies in the state by promoting fossil fuel reliance.
uncertain
critics → have → reliance
On the other hand, in Michigan, a ballot measure hopes to limit utilities from influencing political campaigns.
asserted
measure → hop → campaigns
(Michigan utility companies have previously lobbied against community solar expansion.)
asserted
companies → lobby → expansion
Voters in Eugene, Ore., meanwhile, will be asked to decide whether to tax large corporate retailers to fund climate resilience projects.
asserted
Voters → ask → projects
(The measure is modeled after a similar program passed in neighboring Portland in 2018.)
asserted
measure → model → 2018
These all serve as bellwether cases, says Henderson.
asserted
Henderson → serve → cases
“These ballot measures are in some ways testing theories of how each side is going to approach state level climate policy.
asserted
side → test → policy
How could the Iran war and data center concerns in the midterms impact climate policy?
uncertain
war → impact → policy
Two issues of concern for voters—the war in Iran and data center construction—could also prove an opportunity for climate-friendly policies like renewable energy investments.
uncertain
issues → prove → investments
“These moments of crisis when energy is really really expensive [can] lead to these switches to renewable energy,” says Araos.
asserted
Araos → lead → energy
As the war laid bare the precarity of fossil fuels, many communities around the world began turning to renewable energy for greater energy security.
asserted
communities → lay → security
Voters in 10 states, including California, Kansas, and Ohio, will decide whether to curb data center development in local communities, a fight that’s been resonating with climate advocates.
asserted
that → include → advocates
“Data centers have drawn a grassroots bipartisan opposition, and climate groups are very much aligned with that opposition because data centers are major energy users, and in many cases they're major water users,” says Henderson.
asserted
Henderson → draw → cases
“I think it is really a climate issue as well as local land use issue, an issue of costs and water availability, and there's an opportunity here for climate advocates to to be a part of a broader coalition.”
asserted
advocates → think → coalition
The Aporia
