The basic premise of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war on Canada was simple: The massive U.S. economy could dictate favourable terms to a smaller and more dependent neighbour.
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economy → dictate → neighbour
Instead, the Canadian economy proved more resilient to U.S. tariffs than almost anyone expected.
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anyone → prove → tariffs
The Canadian electorate went all-in on a strategy of retaliation.
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electorate → go → retaliation
And now, with tariffs threatening several key Senate races in U.S. border states, it’s the Trump White House that is now backing down on some of its Canadian trade barriers.
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that → threaten → barriers
Add it all together and, according to an analysis published Wednesday by the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations, Canada is where Trump’s “hardball” approach to trade has gone sideways the most.
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approach → add → trade
Trump’s White House confused “economic size with bargaining leverage,” it says.
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it → confuse → leverage
As a result, the U.S. is now “mired in a losing trade war with its economically much smaller and militarily much weaker neighbor to the north.
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U.S. → mire → north
The analysis cites the 1977 book Power and Interdependence, which devotes an entire chapter on how, despite its small size, Canada held a curiously large amount of leverage in its past dealings with Washington.
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Canada → cite → Washington
The authors examined 50 years of international disputes between the two countries – ranging from liquor taxes to lumber duties to fishing rights – and were surprised to find that Canada usually came out on top.
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Canada → examine → top
While the U.S. could obviously impose great pain on the Canadian economy, Canada’s enmeshment with the U.S. gave it a unique ability to do the same in return.
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enmeshment → impose → return
“And she (Canada) was often willing to do that because of asymmetrical salience: The relationship was more important to Canada than to the United States,” reads the book, written by the American political scientists Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye.
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book → do → scientists
Power and Interdependence also pointed out that Canada has a political enmeshment with the U.S. unlike any other country.
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Canada → point → country
It cited Canadian data from 1968 tracking 6,500 cross-border visits by government officials from both countries, the vast majority of whom were low-level federal and provincial bureaucrats, rather than diplomats.
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majority → cite → whom
“The classical image of governments interacting through their foreign offices is clearly inappropriate in the Canadian-American case,” it read.
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it → interact → case
Wednesday’s Council on Foreign Relations article noted that Canadian exports to the U.S. are also disproportionately comprised of raw materials that are critical to the U.S. economy, such as oil and potash.
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that → note → oil
“Given such complex relationships, there are sharp limits to how far any U.S. administration can push Canada around,” it reads.
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it → give → Canada
While Canada has been one of the most conspicuous targets of U.S. tariffs, it has been a general tactic of the Trump administration to threaten punitive tariffs against all its trade partners in exchange for new terms more favourable to the U.S.
And for the most part, such hardball trade tactics have generally worked.
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tactics → threaten → part
An August paper out of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy noted that the Trump administration has signed 21 new trade deals since its 2025 inauguration, almost all of which offer asymmetric terms.
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all → note → terms
Japan, for instance, offered US$550 billion in U.S. investment commitments in exchange for Washington dropping its threatened tariff rate from 25 per cent to 15 per cent.
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Washington → offer → cent
Similarly, South Korea put up US$350 billion in promised investments and accepted a 15 per cent tariff rate on goods that had previously been duty free.
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that → put → goods
“The U.S. won major concessions across many of its new agreements — including investment commitments, procurement obligations and strategic policy alignment — without making like concessions itself,” wrote the University of Calgary authors, adding “the burden of adjustment has fallen overwhelmingly on U.S. partners and not on the U.S.”
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burden → win → U.S.
Canada is the only country other than the People’s Republic of China to have responded to a Trump trade war with counter-tariffs.
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Canada → respond → tariffs
And in walking away from trade negotiations last August, Ottawa has broken with many of its peer countries in refusing to accept a package of higher U.S. tariffs in exchange for a return to normalized trade relations.
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Ottawa → walk → relations
“Canada stands alone in resisting U.S. demands,” read the Council on Foreign Relations analysis.
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analysis → stand → Relations
Instead, the first cracks seem to be emerging from the U.S. side.
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cracks → seem → side
Just this week, Maine Senator Susan Collins claimed credit for a sudden round of White House tariff exemptions on Canadian imports that were having an outsized effect on the state’s fruit and potato growers.
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that → claim → growers
(Washington replaced them by introducing tariffs on other Canadian exports with less effect on Maine.)
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Washington → replace → Maine
The tariffs have proved to be a singular factor threatening Collins’ re-election in the Nov. 3 midterms, and in a statement she pledged to “continue working directly with Administration officials to seek additional relief from tariffs and encourage a broader trade agreement with Canada, our neighbor, ally, and largest trading partner.”
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she → prove → Canada
It’s been a similar story in the tariff-afflicted border state of Michigan, where Republican Senate candidate Mike Roger came out hard against the trade war in his campaign’s final stretch.
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Roger → afflict → stretch
“Here in Michigan we know that Canada is not our enemy.
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Canada → know → Michigan
We need to end this tariff war now,” he said in a campaign ad.
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he → need → ad
And even Trump has admitted that his tariffs on Canadian aluminum have mostly just raised prices on a critical import with no ready alternatives.
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tariffs → admit → alternatives
“This country desperately needs aluminum,” Trump said during an August telephone rally for Mike Mazzei, a Republican candidate for governor in Oklahoma.
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Trump → need → Oklahoma
“We don’t have it.
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We → have → it
We get it all from Canada for the most part, and we need it badly.”
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we → get → it
Perhaps most notably, just last week White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett volunteered in an interview that the U.S. is “very close” to a deal with Canada and that the White House “has been talking to … Canadian counterparts all week.”
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House → volunteer → counterparts
At a Michigan rally, Trump similarly promised “we’ll have that settled pretty soon” on the question of a Canadian trade agreement.
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that → promise → agreement
To which Prime Minister Mark Carney replied this week that Canada is not “at that position right now.”
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Canada → reply → position
IN OTHER NEWS
It was only after the B.C. election had concluded that observers noted the extremely convenient timing of an Oct. 24 election day: It fell just hours after several departing members of the NDP caucus became eligible for a legislative pension.
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members → conclude → pension
Once it does, it’s one of the most gold-plated pensions in the country.
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it → ’ → country
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
