The midterm elections are just days away, and while anything can happen, the broad consensus among pollsters suggests a bad night for Republicans.
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consensus → happen → Republicans
Hoping to shore up a victory for his party, President Donald Trump seized upon an idea: bribe the voters.
asserted
Trump → hop → voters
"If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them," Trump pledged in September, "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000."
asserted
I → win → 5,000
According to Vice President J.D. Vance, this "dividend"—which would cost more than $1.3 trillion—would come from the "extraordinary amount of revenue" generated by Trump's tariffs.
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cost → accord → tariffs
Of course, that math doesn't work: According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the U.S. took in just under $300 billion in tariff revenue between January 2025 and July 2026, not counting the amount it has had to refund after the Supreme Court found they were illegally imposed.
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they → work → amount
At that rate, it would take years of tariffs just to pay for Trump's dividend.
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it → take → dividend
Adding insult to injury, of course, is the fact that tariffs are paid by Americans, meaning we would be taxing ourselves to pay for our own disbursement.
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we → add → disbursement
But in the campaign season's closing days, Trump has made a number of other threats and offers, contingent on his party's success—a completely risible use of government power.
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Trump → close → power
In September, three Ohio Republicans—Rep. Mike Turner and Sens. Bernie Moreno and Jon Husted—petitioned the president to build a planned Space Force training academy in their state.
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Republicans → petition → state
"Every other state wants it," Trump said this month at an Ohio campaign rally.
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Trump → want → rally
"If we win the midterms, Ohio will be very, very strongly considered."
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Ohio → win → midterms
On October 17, the Department of Defense—which Trump calls by its original name, the Department of War—announced a conditional $80 billion loan to pharmaceutical manufacturer Antheia.
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Trump → call → Antheia
That same day, at a campaign rally in Kentucky, Trump made a pledge to the state's voters.
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Trump → make → voters
"If the Republicans win, the Department of War will be investing $100 million in the pharmaceutical company Antheia to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky," he said.
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he → win → Winchester
But he prefaced it by telling Rep. Andy Barr, the Republican running for the state's open Senate seat, "you have to win, Andy.
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you → preface → seat
Otherwise, forget it."
Days later in both Kansas and Iowa, Trump brought up E15, a gasoline blend that contains up to 15 percent ethanol derived from corn.
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that → forget → corn
It has advantages and disadvantages as an alternative to traditional gasoline, but it's a boon for corn-growing states.
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it → have → states
"Normally, E15 is not allowed during the summer because warmer temperatures increase fuel evaporation and thus the formulation of ground ozone ('smog')," writes Benjamin Zycher of the American Enterprise Institute.
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Zycher → allow → Institute
The government can waive that restriction to address disruptions in the fuel supply, which it did in March amid gas price shocks related to Trump's war in Iran.
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it → waive → Iran
The House passed a bill in May to make the waiver permanent and allow E15 to be sold year-round, which Trump backed in June; the Senate version of the Farm Bill includes a year-round E15 amendment, but Democrats have held up its passage.
"
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Democrats → pass → passage
With Roger Marshall in the Senate," Trump told Kansans last week, "we will make year-round E15 permanent.
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E15 → tell → Kansans
But if [Democratic candidate] Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it."
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I → do → it
He then made the same pledge in Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson is the Republican Senate nominee.
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Hinson → make → Iowa
"With Ashley in the Senate, we will make it year-round E15," Trump said.
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Trump → make → Senate
"We'll make it permanent."
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it → make → ?
Of course, it's nothing new for politicians to make big promises in exchange for your votes.
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politicians → make → votes
And Trump's pledges do reflect some version of reality: Keeping the Senate in Republican hands will make it easier for him to do certain things.
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him → reflect → things
At a rally in North Carolina last month, he tied hurricane disaster aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to Senate candidate Michael Whatley's election.
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he → tie → election
"We spent more than $2 billion [in] FEMA funding," he told attendees.
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he → spend → attendees
"You're waiting for some additional money…and I'm gonna get that to you, Michael.
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I → wait → you
Now if Michael loses, I'm not sending it."
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I → lose → it
He added right after, "I'm only kidding, you're gonna get it."
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you → add → it
Other times, he didn't take it back: Trump appeared at a campaign rally in Georgia this week, stumping for Rep. Mike Collins to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff, and part of his sales pitch was that if Ossoff wins, he may just ignore the state.
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he → take → state
"President has a lot of power," he said, and there's "a big difference when he likes the people representing a state.
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he → have → state
Collins could call me anytime he wants."
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he → call → me
But if Ossoff wins, he added, he won't take the call, and he even narrated a hypothetical conversation to make his point: "'Tell him I'm not in.'
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I → win → him
'But he needs money for Georgia.'
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he → need → Georgia
'I don't give a damn what he wants!'"
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he → give → what
Also this week, Trump railed about the Senate race in Alaska, where Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces not only former Rep. Mary Peltola but a retired teacher also named Dan Sullivan.
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Sullivan → rail → Peltola
The New York Times reported this week that the Peltola campaign actively recruited the second Sullivan to run explicitly as a spoiler, to siphon votes away from the senator.
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campaign → report → senator
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
