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Melbourne suburbs where house prices have fallen the most

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Zielinski, C. (2026, October 29). Melbourne suburbs where house prices have fallen the most. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/melbourne-suburbs-where-house-prices-have-fallen-the-most-20261030-p616p2.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-29 · by Caroline Zielinski

Quick Summary

Melbourne's house prices have experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with some of its most expensive suburbs seeing dramatic drops in median home values. For instance, Toorak saw a 25.2% decline, dropping to $4,190,000 per home. Meanwhile, more affordable areas like Riddells Creek and Maribyrnong have seen price increases of up to 16.3%. Domain’s chief residential economist attributes this disparity to premium buyers waiting out uncertain market conditions, while first-time buyers continue to seek lower-priced properties due to reduced borrowing capacity.
Written by AI on 2026-11-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 29, 2026, house prices in some prestigious Melbourne suburbs have dropped significantly. The median house price in Toorak fell by 25.2% to $4,190,000 over the past year. Other affected areas include Hawthorn (down 16.4% to $2.3 million), Mont Albert (down 14.1% to $1,925,000), and South Yarra (down 13.7% to $1.86 million). In contrast, prices increased in more affordable suburbs like Riddells Creek in the Macedon Ranges by 16.3%, reaching $1,116,000. Dr. Nicola Powell from Domain explains that during downturns, high-end buyers are often selective and can wait for better conditions, leading to fewer sales at the premium end of the market.

Written for “Melbourne House Price Falls” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Melbourne House Price Falls
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 10% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 0 of 25 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the housing market trends in Australia and focus on distinct locations with varying outcomes.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 3 of 21 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the housing market in Australia and Melbourne, but do not describe the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 48 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss property price declines in different cities (Sydney vs Melbourne) with distinct data and suburbs analyzed.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 6 of 52 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of real estate and wealth in Melbourne suburbs: one focuses on overall wealth rankings using an interactive map, while the other details house price drops in specific high-end suburbs.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 7 of 51 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A focuses on house price declines in specific Melbourne suburbs, while Article B discusses national trends and forecasts for Australian property prices.”
The Guardian
Hedges 2 of 20 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the housing market trends in Australia; one focuses on specific suburbs in Melbourne, while the other gives an overview of home values across state capitals.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
30
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
10%
3 of 30 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-01 · how these are computed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · 5737 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Caroline Zielinski
9 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The besties will also pocket the $100,000 winner’s cheque, as well as a new prize called “Scotty’s Prize Pool” featuring a collection of cash, vehicles, luxury items, and home upgrades valued collectively at about $500,000.
🔮 So they’re more willing to sit on the sidelines when market conditions are uncertain,” she said.
🔮 While it’s too early to see data on the impact of the federal government’s budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, Rawnsley said some investors may be tempted to buy property in regional Victoria, where yields have been historically higher than in Melbourne.
🔮 Marshall White lead agent Jack Fowles says the home has attracted buyers looking for a luxury Toorak family home, as well as people not actively looking, but willing to buy if “something special comes up”.
🔮 From October 1, Victorian real estate agents will be required to disclose the sale price of a home within seven days of a sale, and make this information publicly available for at least 18 months following the sale.
🔮 “To be fair, they [the vendors] would have made a decision around the $680,000 mark just to move it on.”
🔮 Sisters Maddy and Charlotte’s four-bedroom showpiece is listed with a guide of $1.4 million to $1.5 million, which listing agent Leanne Williams from Harcourts Coast & Lifestyle said is great value for money.
🔮 “Last week we were noticing that about 50 per cent of the buyers that were coming through our offices were new buyers ... which means people are starting to think about entering the market.” The property was one of 646 scheduled to go to auction in Melbourne this week, the first weekend of the spring selling market. In the city’s west, a three-bedroom family home passed in on a vendor’s bid of $1.25 million, and will now be moved to private sale with a reserve of $1.36 million.
Also by Caroline Zielinski
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 9 articles by Caroline Zielinski →

Topics

Hawthorn Melbourne Mont Albert South Yarra Toorak

Subjects

Melbourne GPE · 2× Powell PERSON · 2× Carlton North GPE · 1× Domain ORG · 1× Fitzroy GPE · 1× Hawthorn GPE · 1× Mont Albert GPE · 1× Nicola Powell PERSON · 1× South Yarra GPE · 1× Toorak GPE · 1×

Narrative

The median house prices in Riddells Creek in the Macedon Ranges rose by 16.3 per cent (to $1,116,000), followed by the inner north-west suburb of Maribyrnong at 15.4 per cent ($1,050,500), and Monbulk in the Yarra Ranges, where the median house price sits at $907,500, with annual growth of 14.2 per cent.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-01
🔮 So they’re more willing to sit on the sidelines when market conditions are uncertain,” she said.
2026-11-01 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Melbourne suburbs where house prices have fallen the most · assertive framing

Claims (30 extracted, 3 hedged)

House prices dropped by over a quarter in one of Melbourne’s most prestigious suburbs in a year, while the cost to buy a typical house rose in more affordable parts of the market. asserted
cost → drop → market
The median house price in well-heeled Toorak, sitting at $4,190,000, has fallen by 25.2 per cent in the 12 months to September. asserted
price → heel → September
This was followed by Hawthorn (down 16.4 per cent to $2.3 million), Mont Albert (down 14.1 per cent to $1,925,000) and South Yarra, which was down 13.7 per cent to $1.86 million, the latest Domain House Price Report shows. asserted
Report → follow → million
Inner-north suburb Fitzroy, with a median house price of $1,424,000, and nearby Carlton North ($1,492,750) also made up the 10 suburbs with the deepest falls, down 13.2 per cent and 12.8 per cent, respectively. asserted
suburb → make → falls
Domain’s chief residential economist, Dr Nicola Powell, said the higher end of the market tended to show weakness first during housing downturns. asserted
end → say → downturns
“Premium buyers can afford to wait [to sell] so at the top end, buyers are often purchasing by choice rather than necessity. asserted
buyers → afford → choice
So they’re more willing to sit on the sidelines when market conditions are uncertain,” she said. asserted
she → ’re → sidelines
“It also might mean that we’re seeing fewer prestige homes sell … with ultimately fewer trophy transactions occurring. uncertain
transactions → mean → ?
We may be seeing smaller homes transact as well, and that can … distort what that median is.” uncertain
median → see → ?
The lower end of the market, however, has had some growth. asserted
end → have → growth
The median house prices in Riddells Creek in the Macedon Ranges rose by 16.3 per cent (to $1,116,000), followed by the inner north-west suburb of Maribyrnong at 15.4 per cent ($1,050,500), and Monbulk in the Yarra Ranges, where the median house price sits at $907,500, with annual growth of 14.2 per cent. asserted
price → rise → cent
Powell said that while buyers had pulled back, first home buyers in particular had been growing. “Those more affordable areas are seeing demand because they are at the lower end, [and] they’re where first-time buyers remain active,” she said. asserted
she → say → end
“But also I think reduced borrowing capacity as well helps to funnel demand towards the lower end.” asserted
capacity → think → end
Powell added there was a strong possibility Melbourne’s median house price could dip below $1 million by the end of the year due to the “collision” of policy changes, housing taxes, an upcoming state election and predictions of another cash rate rise. uncertain
price → add → rise
Rohan McLeay, 56, recently purchased a three-bedroom house in outer north-east suburb of South Morang – where the median house price is up 6.1 per cent over the year to $786,000 – after looking for a few months. asserted
price → purchase → months
“I’d been putting the feelers out for a while, probably a good three months, looking at different houses around the area at the top of my price range – you never know what they [the homes] will go for until you go to the auction asserted
you → put → auction
,” he said. asserted
he → say → ?
The electrician wanted to downsize from a larger house and was looking at properties ranging from about $710,000 to $810,000. asserted
electrician → want → 810,000
He paid $796,000 for his new property. asserted
He → pay → property
“You hear on the news the market is dropping by x per cent, and at the same time when you go to an auction, you’re fighting with other people who have the same idea as you, which drives up the price … to the top of the range, or even $100,000 plus above the top,” McLeay said. asserted
McLeay → hear → top
PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said it made sense that blue-chip suburbs were falling in value and suburbs with a median house price “around $700,000 to $900,000” were rising. asserted
suburbs → say → price
“It’s always the higher-end blue chip suburbs that get hit the most, or that will see the highest decline in prices, simply because they are the more expensive stock,” she said. asserted
she → ’ → prices
“And so people think twice before they actually commit that high of an amount in their purchase price, but also in their debt level.” asserted
they → think → level
Mardiasmo added that a loan for a house in the more “affordable band of … around the $900,000 mark … is about $600,000, whereas if you’re looking at Toorak or anything that is over $2 million, then you’re looking at a loan that is over $1.5 million, depending on how much you’re putting up.” asserted
you → add → much
In light of this year’s interest rate rises, Mardiasmo said it was “going to really impact your monthly budget ... if you borrow more”. asserted
you → say → more
Ray White South Morang real estate agent Nick Petrovski said houses “sub a million are selling and are well inspected”, provided they were well-presented and priced accurately. asserted
they → say → ?
“Things are still moving along quite consistently irrespective of a lot of the noise for different parts of Melbourne,” he said. asserted
he → move → Melbourne
The agent, who sold McLeay his home, also looks after suburbs such as Epping, Mernda, Doreen, Mill Park, Lalor, Thomastown, Reservoir and Bundoora, which have all recorded price rises over the past year. asserted
which → sell → year
“We’re seeing a lot of first-home buyers between that $500,000 to $800,000 mark. asserted
We → see → mark
And good, well-presented family homes are also bringing consistent inspection numbers, and the results are very strong, irrespective of outside noise,” Petrovski said. asserted
Petrovski → present → noise
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