AS DEMOCRATIC OFFICIALS AND STRATEGISTS mapped out their game plan for the midterms earlier this year, they speculated that the Supreme Court’s ruling gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act—and the ensuing rush to carve up the electoral power of black voters in the South—could help drive black voter turnout.
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ruling → map → turnout
They figured that Republicans’ gleeful race to eliminate majority-black congressional districts would motivate black voters who otherwise wouldn’t turn out in a non-presidential year.
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who → figure → year
Raymond Smith, a former state representative who is running to flip North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, told me back in June that while he was certain older black voters would be fired up over redistricting, he worried that the GOP’s efforts “could be lost on the younger generation.”
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efforts → run → generation
But early-vote data suggests that black voters are turning out in big numbers.
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voters → suggest → numbers
So far, black voters have cast over 160,000 more ballots this year than they had at the same point in the 2022 midterm elections.
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they → cast → elections
And while it’s impossible to say for sure what’s motivating the turnout, it’s notable that the biggest change from four years ago in the share of votes cast by black voters is largely occurring in Southern states, particularly Louisiana—where the Supreme Court case originated—as well as South Carolina.
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case → ’ → states
“If you look at the turnout patterns of African Americans—particularly the turnout pattern of more sporadic African-American [voters]—what you’re trying to figure out is if this turnout is a reflection of the typical electorate just coming in early, or is there something else going on?”
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electorate → look → voters]—what
said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster working on the gubernatorial race in Georgia and closely tracking black turnout in the state.
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Belcher → say → state
“When you look at how more sporadic voters are turning out and are a part of the early-vote conversation, you do get a sense that something different is going on.
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something → look → sense
If that’s held fairly constant, you’re looking at a very different face of the electorate than you’ve typically seen in a midterm, for sure—and even than what you’ve seen in a presidential year.
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you → hold → year
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who → get → Day
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what → become → election
Belcher and other strategists I spoke with cautioned that early-vote data provides an incomplete picture of the election.
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data → speak → election
They also noted that not every state includes racial demographics in their early-vote reports, which means operatives instead look at counties with large black populations to assess whether turnout is up.
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turnout → note → populations
Mississippi and Alabama, states with significant black populations, don’t even offer in-person early voting.
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Mississippi → offer → voting
Plus, it’s possible that white voter turnout could surge on Election Day, reducing the proportion of black votes overall.
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turnout → ’ → votes
It’s important, they emphasized, not to overread the early numbers.
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they → ’ → numbers
But even with all those caveats in mind, Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and senior adviser to the data and polling firm TargetSmart, told me that with more than 30 million votes already cast nationwide, there’s a large enough sample size to draw some preliminary conclusions.
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votes → tell → conclusions
“When you break down the increase in black voter turnout, it’s overwhelmingly being driven by younger black voters, which is somewhat surprising or unexpected because we know that early voting tends to skew older,” Bonier told me, adding that it suggested younger voters may be more plugged into the recent erosion of voting rights than Democrats had initially thought.
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Democrats → break → rights
Officials at the top Democratic campaign committees have been closely monitoring the turnout numbers to gauge whether high black voter turnout could put some unexpected seats in play.
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turnout → monitor → play
When Republicans rushed to create new maps after Louisiana v. Callais, they drew districts based on assumptions about the breakdown of the white vote versus the black vote, which in the South tends to correlate with party affiliation.
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which → rush → affiliation
But if those assumptions don’t hold—because black residents become significantly more likely to vote this year than in the past—it could open up new opportunities for Democrats.
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it → hold → Democrats
“There’s more of the South in play with this new energized and sort of awakening of that black and brown coalition,” said Belcher.
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Belcher → ’ → coalition
“It is a real challenge to Republicans—not only in this election, but moving forward.
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It → move → election
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us → become → it
Party officials whom I spoke with pointed to Tennessee’s Shelby County, which includes Memphis, as an example of how this dynamic could play out next week.
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dynamic → speak → example
Tennessee Republicans divided it among three districts earlier this year, hoping to eliminate a Democratic seat in Congress.
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Republicans → divide → Congress
But early voting data shows turnout up by 8 percentage points in Shelby County compared to this point in 2022, giving some Democrats hope that Tennessee’s 5th and 9th districts—which Trump would have carried if the new boundaries had been in place in 2024 by 23 points and 21 points, respectively—could still be in play.
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boundaries → show → play
(Memphis is an overwhelmingly black city, so higher voter turnout in general signals more Democratic votes.)
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turnout → signal → votes
On Tuesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it was spending money for the first time in Tennessee’s 5th district.
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it → announce → district
Black voter turnout could also make a difference in Virginia, where Democrats are trying to flip three congressional districts.
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Democrats → make → districts
According to Chaz Nuttycombe, the executive director of State Navigate, the blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to the 2025 gubernatorial election.
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turnout → accord → election
And Democrats attribute some of the tightening of the Senate race in South Carolina—a New York Times poll released Wednesday showed Republican Darline Graham leading Democrat Annie Andrews by less than a point—to black voter enthusiasm.1
“About 30 percent of the early vote [in South Carolina] has been black,” Jaime Harrison, the former chair of the Democratic National Committee and a South Carolina native, told me.
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Harrison → attribute → me
“Now the question is, if we can keep that number around 24 percent, and then if Annie [Andrews] can continue to get 35 percent of the white vote, we got a new senator from South Carolina.
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we → keep → Carolina
Although the Republican-led South Carolina legislature unexpectedly shot down a redistricting measure pushed by Donald Trump, it was a major controversy in the state earlier this spring.
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it → lead → state
A new map would have eliminated Rep. Jim Clyburn’s district, likely ending his 33 years in office.
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map → eliminate → office
The Aporia
