Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
20%
3 of 15 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
Semafor's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
The Scoop
Kalshi has hired one of former President Barack Obama’s top advisers, political strategist Eric Schultz, a person familiar with the matter told Semafor — the latest sign of companies anticipating Democratic victories in Tuesday’s midterms.
asserted
person → hire → midterms
Schultz’s hiring comes as Kalshi users forecast a 91% chance that Democrats win a majority in the House and a 65% chance of a Democratic Senate majority.
asserted
Democrats → come → majority
No matter how well Democrats perform, prediction markets may find themselves facing tougher scrutiny in the next Congress, since lawmakers in both parties have expressed skepticism of the Trump administration’s favorable regulatory approach.
uncertain
lawmakers → perform → approach
Kalshi declined a request for comment.
asserted
Kalshi → decline → comment
It’s unclear whether Schultz, who did not return a request for comment, will be working in- or out-of-house, though he has maintained his own consulting firm since Obama left office.
uncertain
Obama → ’ → office
Schultz, who previously served as Obama’s deputy White House press secretary, is one of several Democrats the firm has brought on this year.
asserted
firm → serve → Democrats
It has also tapped another Obama aide, Stephanie Cutter, as well as former Biden administration official John Bivona.
asserted
It → tap → aide
Businesses in adjacent industries are also stockpiling Democratic lobbyists — and occasionally phasing out Republican hands — in preparation for 2027.
asserted
Businesses → stockpile → 2027
Veteran GOP adviser Joel Kaplan recently announced his departure as Meta’s global policy chief, while OpenAI recently hired Jessica Schumer, daughter of the Senate Democratic leader, to focus on the Northeast.
asserted
OpenAI → announce → Northeast
Kalshi’s Democratic firepower extends to its legal team: Neal Katyal, the attorney who convinced the Supreme Court to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, is representing the prediction market in its legal battle against states and tribes.
asserted
who → extend → states
The Kalshi-backed Coalition for Prediction Markets is represented by the Biden administration’s solicitor general, Elizabeth Prelogar, and helmed by a former House Democrat, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York.
asserted
Coalition → back → York
Some of the company’s new hires could get pulled back into politics next year if Democrats choose to dig into the Trump administration’s involvement with prediction markets.
uncertain
Democrats → pull → markets
Maloney, who twice voted to impeach Trump, at the time called for Kalshi and Polymarket investor Donald Trump Jr. to testify before Congress.
asserted
Kalshi → vote → Congress
Notable
- Kaplan’s selection as global policy chief in early 2025 left Meta “well-placed for a Republican-dominated Washington,” Semafor reported at the time.
asserted
Semafor → leave → time
- Trump’s top prediction market regulator told Semafor that he’s weighing further legal action against states that try to regulate the industry.
asserted
that → tell → industry
The Aporia
