Claims extracted
22
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 22 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
2
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Inflation to surge beyond forecasts as UK economy set for growth slowdown
asserted
economy → surge → slowdown
Official forecasts also show national debt levels, compared to the size of the wider economy, are set to swell over the next three years amid higher-than-expected state borrowing.
asserted
levels → show → borrowing
It is then expected to steadily decline but only reach the Government and Bank of England’s 2% inflation target in 2028.
asserted
It → expect → 2028
The OBR said inflation would average at 3.1% this year and then 3.4% in 2027, in a significant hike to previous forecasts of 2.3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
asserted
inflation → say → 2027
The jump in inflation will also come despite a number of measures from the Chancellor aimed at reducing the cost of living, such as removing VAT from electricity bills and the standing charge from gas bills.
asserted
jump → come → bills
The economy is also now expected to see growth slow next year as accelerating inflation puts pressure on households and businesses.
asserted
inflation → expect → households
The OBR said UK gross domestic product (GDP) is set to improve by 1.2% this year, up from a previous estimate of 1.1%.
asserted
product → say → %
However, the watchdog said the economy is then expected to see growth slow to 1% next year.
asserted
growth → say → %
It represents a significant cut to the growth outlook, with the watchdog having previously predicted the economy would grow by 1.6% for the year.
asserted
economy → represent → year
Read More
Growth is expected to lift back to 1.6% in 2028, followed by rises of 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031, pointing to a slightly stronger outlook for the final years of the forecast period than previously expected.
Mr Healey also confirmed on Wednesday that he will reduce the UK’s fiscal headroom to £15 billion in 2029/30, from a previous prediction of £26 billion, after witnessing a jump in borrowing costs.
asserted
he → read → costs
The weaker headroom, which will improve to £22 billion by 2031, was linked to a £15 billion jump in debt interest costs for the current year.
asserted
which → improve → year
The yield on UK 10-year gilts – government bonds – eased back two basis points after the Budget despite the reduced headroom.
asserted
yield → ease → headroom
Government borrowing is expected to be higher than expected in every year of the latest forecast compared with previous predictions from March, the OBR said.
asserted
OBR → expect → March
The OBR said it is expected to surpass previous forecasts by around £18 billion this year, £16 billion in 2027/28, and an average of £11 billion a year after that.
asserted
it → say → that
Meanwhile, the UK’s national debt – public sector net debt – is set to rise from 96% of GDP this year to 97% in 2028/29, before falling back to 96% in 2031.
asserted
debt → set → 2031
It came as the forecaster also warned that living standards are set to decline as households come under pressure from higher energy prices.
asserted
households → come → prices
Real household disposable income, the key measure of household spending power, is set to “fall slightly in the near-term” before improving as the energy shock abates.
asserted
shock → set → term
The OBR’s David Miles said the weakness in living standards represents “a pretty grim picture”.
asserted
weakness → say → picture
He added: “If you go back to just before Covid and take that as your base, where we are right now – which is, what, some seven years later – is virtually no growth in per-person real household disposable income.”
asserted
which → add → income
Elsewhere, unemployment is set to be lower this year than previously expected.
asserted
unemployment → set → ?
The forecasts indicated the unemployment rate will strike 5% for this year, before rising to 5.1% for 2027 and easing back to 4.9% in 2028 and 4.5% in 2029.
asserted
rate → indicate → 2029
The OBR had previously predicted unemployment of 5.3% for 2026, although it had originally forecast this would ease to 4.9% next year.
asserted
this → predict → %
The Aporia
