A Michigan Senate poll conducted by Fox News found Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed trailing Republican nominee Mike Rogers by 4 percentage points, 51%-47%. The same poll showed Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James in the gubernatorial race by 5 points, 52%-47%, within the margin of error. El-Sayed's weakness compared to his Democratic ticket-mate is widespread across demographics, with the largest deficit among independents where he trails by 18 points. With 11 weeks until the election, El-Sayed has a lot of work to do to close the gap in this key state for Democrats.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
In today’s edition, our staff digs into President Donald Trump’s latest surprise in the realm of foreign affairs.
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staff → dig → affairs
Plus, senior national politics reporter Sahil Kapur explores a polling gap in Michigan — and what it means for the Democratic Party.
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it → explore → Party
A Michigan Senate poll offers warning signs for Democrats
Analysis by Sahil Kapur
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poll → offer → Kapur
While polls show a political environment favorable enough to Senate Democrats that they’re competitive in several states where President Donald Trump won by double digits, a new survey offers a sobering reality check in must-win Michigan.
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survey → show → Michigan
Days after progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated moderate Haley Stevens in a highly competitive Democratic primary this month, a Fox News poll conducted by a bipartisan pair of polling firms found El-Sayed trailing Republican nominee Mike Rogers by 4 percentage points, 51%-47%.
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Sayed → defeat → points
The same poll also looked at the race for governor and found Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James by 5 points, 52%-47%.
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Benson → look → points
The most worrying finding for El-Sayed in the poll may be that his weakness compared to his Democratic ticket-mate isn’t limited to any specific demographic.
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weakness → compare → demographic
He’s underperforming Benson among just about every group — including men (by 4 points), women (by 8 points), white voters (by 5 points), Black voters (by 11 points), college-educated voters (by 4 points), voters without a college degree (by 7 points) and even voters under 30 (by 7 points).
The starkest deficit is among independents: Benson is winning them by 18 points, or 56%-38%, while El-Sayed is losing them 5 points (48%-43%) in the same poll.
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Sayed → underperform → poll
El-Sayed just broke free of a bitterly contested primary that divided the Democratic Party — and while Stevens has fully endorsed him, those wounds will take time to heal.
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wounds → break → time
By contrast, Benson coasted to her nomination without much competition, allowing her to pivot to the general election early.
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her → coast → election
Rogers has also proved to be an adept candidate, serving in Congress as a mainstream conservative from 2001 to 2015 and more recently gaining Trump’s endorsement to help him with the MAGA base.
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Rogers → prove → base
He only narrowly lost a 2024 Senate race, and he’s trying to avoid weighing in on contentious issues and instead keep the focus on Democrats.
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he → lose → Democrats
El-Sayed ran on a message that a populist progressive like him is better suited than an establishment Democrat to carry the mantle of change and to speak to the needs of struggling middle-class and low-income Americans.
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progressive → run → Americans
Now he has to prove it — and the stakes are high for both the progressive movement and the Democratic Party.
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stakes → have → movement
Without holding on to Michigan, the party’s already tough path to netting four seats and winning a Senate majority narrows dramatically.
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path → hold → majority
El-Sayed has 11 weeks to make up the deficit.
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Sayed → have → deficit
But the early findings show that he has a lot of work to do.
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he → show → work
Trump’s call to scale back military drills and deference to Kim Jong Un alarm South Korea
By Jennifer Jett and Stella Kim
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call → scale → Jett
The United States’ military drills with South Korea have long served as an annual demonstration of American commitment to its key ally’s security.
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drills → serve → security
But the exercises were thrown into confusion today after President Donald Trump called for them to be scaled back hours before they were set to begin, adding to a sense of vulnerability in Asia as the U.S. is occupied by the war with Iran.
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U.S. → throw → Iran
Trump cited South Korea’s refusal to join the conflict in the Middle East, as well as his “very good” relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
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Trump → cite → Un
He said the exercises sent a “totally inappropriate and hostile” signal to North Korea, a nuclear-armed state that has been escalating threats against its neighbor.
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that → say → neighbor
But the order to “substantially reduce” the 11-day drills may have sent its own ominous signal to South Korea, which remains heavily dependent on the U.S. for nuclear deterrence against North Korea’s growing nuclear threat.
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which → reduce → threat
Retired Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum, former commander of South Korea’s Special Warfare Command, told NBC News he was “very concerned that the combined military exercises are being treated so lightly.”
Scaling back the exercises is not in the interest of Seoul or Washington, he said:
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he → tell → Seoul
I really think North Korea and China would be the ones most pleased by this.”
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Korea → think → this
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ of Strait of Hormuz talks with Iran
-
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it → threaten → Iran
Kushner and Netanyahu agree U.S. general should oversee Hamas ‘demilitarization,’ source says
- Starved of air defenses, Ukraine’s cities and civilians are increasingly vulnerable
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cities → agree → defenses
Top admiral praises USS Lincoln crew after reports of worsening conditions
🗞️
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admiral → praise → conditions
First lady Melania Trump has appeared in about half as many public events as she did at this point in President Donald Trump’s first term, an NBC News analysis found.
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analysis → appear → term
A former Republican mayor of Indianapolis is trying to pave the way for a new party in Indiana with a bid for secretary of state, part of an unusually dramatic race in the state.
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mayor → try → state
The Canadian government is racing to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration in order to avoid a fresh wave of U.S. tariffs set to hit many of its exports to the United States starting on Wednesday.
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government → race → Wednesday
For more than a year, Texas attorney general and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been probing what he says is the large number of noncitizens who illegally voted in his state.
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who → probe → state
So far, three people have been prosecuted.
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people → prosecute → ?
The House ethics panel says it’s investigating Rep. Jimmy Gomez over an allegation of “sexual misconduct.”
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it → say → misconduct
The Supreme Court declined to take up President Donald Trump’s latest bid to block the jury verdict in favor of E. Jean Carroll in a sexual abuse and defamation case.
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Court → decline → case
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now.
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That → ’ → Desk
Today’s newsletter was compiled by Scott Bland.
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newsletter → compile → Bland
If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone.
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you → have → everyone
They can sign up here.
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They → sign → ?
