Netanyahu defies exit polls as vote shifts in his favor, but majority remains elusive

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Cite

Lachter, E. (2026, October 28). Netanyahu defies exit polls as vote shifts in his favor, but majority remains elusive. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/world/netanyahu-defies-exit-polls-vote-shifts-his-favor-majority-remains-elusive

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Fox News · collected 2026-10-28 · by Efrat Lachter

Quick Summary

As Israel counted votes from its recent national election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc gained ground but fell short of the 61-seat majority needed for a clear victory. With around 70% of the votes tallied, Netanyahu’s Likud party led with 27 seats, though the opposition parties collectively held 66 seats, creating potential challenges to forming a government. President Donald Trump claimed his endorsement helped shift momentum in favor of Netanyahu late in the election process. The election results also highlighted the growing influence of Arab parties, which together hold 19 seats and could play a pivotal role in coalition negotiations.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Israelis voted on October 27, 2026, in an election with significant implications for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's future. Early exit polls suggested a close race between Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief.

As votes were counted, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to secure 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Eisenkot's bloc received 47. Additionally, 19 seats went to Israeli Arab parties. This outcome indicates that neither side secured a clear majority needed for immediate coalition formation.

Post-election negotiations are expected to be lengthy and complex due to Israel’s proportional representation system. The Central Election Committee is still counting votes with hundreds of thousands of ballots from soldiers and diplomats abroad yet to be included, delaying the final results until October 30 or later.

The political landscape remains uncertain as both Netanyahu and Eisenkot expressed confidence in their ability to form a government. If negotiations fail, Israel may face another election within several months. The economic impact has already been felt, with the Israeli shekel depreciating against the dollar amid uncertainty over future leadership and policies.

Written for “Israeli Election Braces For Vote” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 81 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans right (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans right for article 111634 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-28

Story

📰 Israeli Election Braces For Vote
Politics · 82 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 16% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Hindu · 0.91 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 29% hedged 5 of 17 📰 publisher trust 78
“Both articles describe the ongoing process of vote counting in Israel's general election on October 28, 2026.”
NPR · 0.85 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 11% hedged 5 of 44 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe partial results from the same election on the same day, showing no clear winner and similar vote distributions for Netanyahu's bloc and opposition.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 7% hedged 3 of 43 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles describe the voting and early vote-counting of a single national election in Israel held on October 27, 2026.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 28% hedged 8 of 29 📰 publisher trust 70
“Both articles describe the voting or counting of votes in Israel's first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 21% hedged 7 of 33 📰 publisher trust 78
“Both articles describe the aftermath of the same Israel election held on October 27, 2026.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe the counting of ballots in the same Israeli election on October 28, 2026.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles describe the ongoing vote counting in the same Israeli election on the same day.”
National Post · 0.94 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 3 of 42 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe Netanyahu's bloc leading in Israel's election with around 70% of votes tallied and falling short of a majority, on the same day.”
Daily Mail · 0.90 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 11% hedged 5 of 46 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles discuss the ongoing vote counting of the same Israeli national election on October 28, 2026, following the Hamas-led attack in 2023.”
Al Jazeera · 0.87 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 36% hedged 5 of 14 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles discuss exit polls and vote counts from the same day of an Israeli election involving Benjamin Netanyahu, indicating they are reporting on the identical specific electoral incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
37
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
16%
6 of 37 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
70/100
Fox News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
82
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Fox News · 5726 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Efrat Lachter
27 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 As both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory Tuesday night, Israelis told Fox News Digital that although they had expected a tight race, the shifting numbers and uncertainty over who could form a government had left many confused about what comes next.
🔮 The projected parliamentary balance showed 50 seats for Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc, 53 for the main opposition parties and 17 for Arab parties, leaving neither major bloc with the 61 seats generally needed to form a government. Although Netanyahu’s party is projected to remain the largest in parliament, his political future is far from secure.
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🔮 "Motorcyclists taking photos of shops, and prisoners being threatened and forced to tell their families not to physically participate in any protests that might arise," the source said.
Also by Efrat Lachter
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 27 articles by Efrat Lachter →

Topics

Arab Israel Israeli Knesset Likud

Subjects

Netanyahu PERSON · 10× Arab NORP · 8× Israeli NORP · 6× Israel GPE · 5× Eisenkot PERSON · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× Golan PERSON · 3× Benjamin Netanyahu PERSON · 2× Knesset ORG · 2× Likud ORG · 2×

Narrative

The final outcome remains uncertain as vote counting continues, including ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special voting procedures. Official results are scheduled for Nov. 4, after which Herzog will consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 As both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory Tuesday night, Israelis told Fox News Digital that although they had expected a tight race, the shifting numbers and uncertainty over who could form a government had left many confused about what comes next.

Claims (37 extracted, 6 hedged)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc gained ground Wednesday morning as Israel counted votes from its first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, but remained short of the majority needed to form a government, leaving the country facing another potential political deadlock. asserted
Israel → gain → deadlock
With approximately 70% of votes counted, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc stood at 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 47 for the main opposition and 19 for Arab parties, according to partial election results reported by Israeli media. uncertain
bloc → count → media
Netanyahu's Likud led with 27 seats, while former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party held 20. asserted
party → lead → 20
As both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory Tuesday night, Israelis told Fox News Digital that although they had expected a tight race, the shifting numbers and uncertainty over who could form a government had left many confused about what comes next. uncertain
what → claim → many
Despite Netanyahu's lead, the parties outside his governing bloc collectively held 66 seats, a majority in the Knesset 120 seats, creating a potential path for the opposition to challenge his leadership if it can secure sufficient cooperation from Arab lawmakers. asserted
it → govern → lawmakers
The results marked a shift from Tuesday night's initial exit polls, which prompted celebrations at Eisenkot's campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. asserted
which → mark → Aviv
Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to accept the results and step aside, while Netanyahu declared later in the night from his headquarters in Jerusalem that Likud had emerged as the country's largest party and urged the formation of a strong right-wing government. asserted
Likud → call → government
The election has now shifted from the ballot box to a potentially complicated battle over coalition-building. asserted
election → shift → building
President Donald Trump took credit Wednesday morning for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stronger-than-expected election performance, suggesting his endorsement helped shift the momentum of the race. asserted
endorsement → take → race
In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a statement from Irving C. Schwartz, who wrote, "When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu." asserted
it → share → Netanyahu
Later, speaking to reporters near Air Force One, Trump said, "I heard the poll numbers were wrong... asserted
numbers → speak → Force
the exit polls; I heard he [Netanyahu] did very well. asserted
he → hear → ?
When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot." asserted
it → go → him
"It's a little bit early, but I'm hearing in Israel, top people say, 'Wow! He did a lot better than people thought.' asserted
people → hear → Israel
It's looking like maybe a stalemate or a win," Trump added. asserted
Trump → look → stalemate
Arab parties could hold the key uncertain
parties → hold → key
The growing influence of Arab parties has emerged as one of the most consequential factors in determining Israel's next government. asserted
influence → grow → government
According to the partial results, the Joint List held 13 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, held six, giving Arab parties a combined 19 seats. uncertain
Ra'am → accord → seats
Abbas signaled openness to political negotiations, saying figures from both sides of Israel's political divide had approached him. asserted
figures → signal → him
"Everyone is talking to us, not just the change bloc," Abbas told Israel's Channel 12. asserted
Abbas → talk → Channel
Democrats leader Yair Golan went further, openly calling for the formation of a new government in cooperation with Arab parties. asserted
Golan → go → parties
"Netanyahu lost. asserted
Netanyahu → lose → ?
I know how to count to 120–65 is greater than 55. asserted
120–65 → know → 55
That's how Israeli democracy works. asserted
democracy → work → ?
Period," Golan wrote on X. asserted
Golan → write → ?
Golan also rejected Netanyahu's distinction between Jewish and Arab political support, arguing that every Israeli citizen's vote should carry equal weight. asserted
vote → reject → weight
"The vote of an Israeli citizen in Tira is worth exactly the same as the vote of an Israeli citizen in Givat Shmuel," he wrote. asserted
he → write → Shmuel
Golan's figures reflected an earlier stage of the count, but his argument highlighted an emerging disagreement within the opposition over whether to include Arab parties in the next government. asserted
argument → reflect → government
Eisenkot has previously expressed opposition to including Ra'am in his coalition, while Netanyahu has warned against any government dependent on Arab parties. asserted
Netanyahu → express → parties
Three possible paths to forming a government Netanyahu could attempt to expand his current coalition by winning support from at least seven lawmakers outside his right-wing and religious bloc, which would bring him to the 61 seats needed for a conventional parliamentary majority. uncertain
which → form → majority
Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek enough parliamentary recommendations, potentially including those of Arab parties, to persuade President Isaac Herzog to give him the first opportunity to form a government. uncertain
Eisenkot → seek → government
Those recommendations would not necessarily require Arab parties to join a future coalition. asserted
recommendations → require → coalition
However, Eisenkot would still need enough parliamentary support to secure a confidence vote. asserted
Eisenkot → need → vote
A third possibility is another deadlock, with neither leader able to form a government and Israel potentially facing another election. asserted
Israel → form → election
The final outcome remains uncertain as vote counting continues, including ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special voting procedures. Official results are scheduled for Nov. 4, after which Herzog will consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government. asserted
Herzog → remain → government
That candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate coalition agreements, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. asserted
candidate → have → extension
Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu will remain prime minister. asserted
Netanyahu → take → office
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