Families and businesses are bracing themselves after what happened in the last two Budgets.
asserted
what → brace → Budgets
People with mortgages are worried their rates will go up if there is a bank tax.
asserted
rates → worry → mortgages
Economists estimate that more than half the £22billion Budget headroom that Chancellor John Healey inherited from Rachel Reeves has been wiped out due to soaring borrowing costs.
asserted
Healey → estimate → costs
If there's anything left, markets will want him to leave it as a buffer.
asserted
him → be → buffer
That means money for new things – defence, social care, council housing or support for rough sleepers to name just a few of Andy Burnham's promises – will have to be found from spending cuts or tax rises.
asserted
money → mean → cuts
I, for one, am praying he does not choose to hike taxes.
asserted
he → pray → taxes
The first rule of any Chancellor should be 'Do No Harm'.
asserted
rule → do → Harm
And real harm is exactly what Labour's tax rises over the past two years have done to numerous businesses.
asserted
rises → do → businesses
People who have painstakingly built farming and other family businesses over generations are now making plans to sell up rather than pass them on to the next generation.
asserted
who → build → generation
The hike on employers' national insurance has meant fewer jobs for young people – helping to push the number of Neets (those not in education, employment or training) to around one million.
asserted
hike → mean → million
Economists estimate that more than half the £22billion Budget headroom that Chancellor John Healey inherited from Rachel Reeves has been wiped out due to soaring borrowing costs
Why such vindictiveness against entrepreneurs and risk-takers?
asserted
Healey → estimate → entrepreneurs
Because the taxes Labour promised not to raise – VAT, income tax, National Insurance or corporation tax – account for three-quarters of tax revenues.
asserted
Labour → promise → revenues
Business taxes are a big chunk of what's left – but hiking them would kill off the little growth we have.
asserted
we → leave → growth
And there is absolutely no need to do so – if the Chancellor looks imaginatively at the £1.4trillion spent by the British state.
asserted
Chancellor → be → state
That extraordinary sum of money amounts to about £47,000 for every household in the country.
asserted
sum → amount → country
Some of it is necessary but too much of it is wasted.
asserted
much → waste → it
A proper plan to tackle waste could fund all our defence needs without levying a penny of extra tax.
uncertain
plan → tackle → tax
Let's start with the Civil Service, which has gone on a hiring spree in recent years.
asserted
which → let → years
Covid and Brexit were used to justify the expansion – but did it need to grow by a third in the last decade?
asserted
it → use → decade
As Chancellor under Rishi Sunak, I had a plan to bring it down to 2019 levels, which would have saved £2.9billion a year.
asserted
which → have → 2.9billion
That plan was scrapped by Labour within two weeks of coming into office.
asserted
plan → scrap → office
Instead, they have added 10,000 more civil servants to the headcount.
asserted
they → add → headcount
I happen to believe the triple-lock needs reforming but by far the biggest savings are in the working-age benefit bill.
asserted
savings → happen → bill
That's because we are recklessly signing off an additional 1,000 people every single day as not having to look for work.
asserted
we → sign → work
Most cite mental health as their reason.
asserted
Most → cite → reason
But doctors say such people need social contact, so why are we condemning them to the isolation of a life at home?
asserted
we → say → home
Instead of parking people with anxiety and depression on benefits, we should be offering them NHS treatment at a much lower cost.
asserted
we → park → cost
Most of these issues have taken hold since the pandemic.
asserted
Most → take → pandemic
If we got the benefit bill back down to 2019 levels (in today's prices), the savings would be a massive £58billion a year within five years.
asserted
savings → get → years
As part of that we should ban benefit assessments by telephone to help tackle the £9.3billion of annual benefit fraud and error identified by the Public Accounts Committee.
asserted
we → ban → Committee
Shockingly that number also includes people claiming fraudulently from overseas.
asserted
number → include → overseas
It's something Mel Stride and I made a start on in the previous Tory government.
asserted
Stride → make → government
Sadly, most of our reforms were jettisoned by Labour.
asserted
most → jettison → Labour
Money for defence, social care, council housing or support for rough sleepers – to name just a few of Andy Burnham's promises – will have to be found from spending cuts or tax rises
Cracking down on abuse of the student finance system could also save us a few billion.
uncertain
Cracking → name → billion
My Conservative colleague Neil O'Brien recently revealed how the post-Brexit scheme was being exploited.
asserted
scheme → reveal → ?
Despite the deadline to apply for settled status passing five years ago, the Home Office was continuing to grant late applications – resulting in Britain losing up to £2billion a year on student loans offered to non-UK nationals.
asserted
Britain → apply → nationals
But the biggest opportunity is to make the public sector more efficient.
asserted
sector → make → ?
It accounts for 20 per cent of our economic output.
asserted
It → account → output
We have long had a productivity problem in the British economy.
asserted
We → have → economy
Why don't ministers tackle it by concentrating on the part of it over which they have the most direct control?
asserted
they → tackle → control
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
