Arab parties could win 18 seats in Israeli elections, exit polls suggest

Read the original at Al Jazeera ↗
Cite

Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, October 28). Arab parties could win 18 seats in Israeli elections, exit polls suggest. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/28/arab-parties-could-win-18-seats-in-israeli-elections-exit-polls-suggest?traffic_source=rss

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-28 · by Al Jazeera Staff

Quick Summary

Israeli exit polls indicate that Arab parties are projected to win 18 seats in the upcoming parliament, marking a record high. Voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel reached around 80%, breaking previous records set in 1999. The leader of Ra’am party, Mansour Abbas, expressed hope that this result will enable an anti-Netanyahu bloc to form a government with the required majority. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his coalition made efforts to mobilize their base by highlighting high Arab voter turnout, which some viewed as racially inflammatory tactics.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Israelis voted in a high-stakes election on October 27, with exit polls suggesting no clear winner between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. Initially, both sides claimed victory based on early projections: Eisenkot said millions of Israelis voted for change due to fatigue with Netanyahu’s "lies," while Netanyahu faced accusations of a crushing defeat from his opponents.

Exit polls indicated that Arab parties could win 18 seats in the Knesset, marking a significant surge in voter turnout among Palestinian citizens. This record-high participation reflects a shift towards political engagement by a traditionally marginalized community. The projections show a tied scenario at 51 seats each for Netanyahu's coalition and Eisenkot’s opposition bloc.

With no clear majority, forming a government will require both sides to negotiate coalitions that can secure the required 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This could lead to further political instability as parties attempt to cobble together support from various factions. The election results underscore a divided electorate and highlight ongoing challenges for Israel's future governance.

Written for “Israeli Election Challenges Netenyahu” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 49 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but 2 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 2 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 110925: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-28

Story

📰 Israeli Election Challenges Netenyahu
Politics · 50 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Semafor
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 1 of 5 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different stages of an election process, with Article A discussing a poll just days before the election and potential implications, while Article B reports on actual exit polls after voting day.”
Euronews
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 33% hedged 2 of 6 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles are reporting on exit polls from the same Israeli election held on October 27, 2026.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 78
“Both articles report on exit polls from the same Israeli election held on October 27, 2026.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 28% hedged 8 of 29 📰 publisher trust 70
“Both articles report on the same national election in Israel held on October 27, 2026.”
CBS News
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 33 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe different stages of the Israeli election process, with Article A reporting on pre-election protests and opinions, while Article B reports post-election exit polls.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 13% hedged 2 of 15 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles refer to the same Israeli election on Tuesday, discussing the role of Arab parties and the tie between Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 9 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A discusses Netanyahu's first vote since the October attacks and Gaza invasion, while Article B focuses on exit polls indicating Arab parties' performance in the election. Although related, they describe different aspects of the same day's event.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 24% hedged 8 of 34 📰 publisher trust 69
“Both articles discuss the Israeli election on October 27, 2026, focusing on different aspects but clearly referring to the same specific electoral event.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 1 of 5 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles describe the same Israeli election on October 27, 2026.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 7% hedged 3 of 43 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles discuss the Israeli elections that took place on October 27, 2026.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
21
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
14%
3 of 21 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
50
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 4177 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Al Jazeera Staff
715 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Al Jazeera Staff
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 715 articles by Al Jazeera Staff →

Topics

Arab Israel Israeli Palestinian Ra’am

Subjects

Israel GPE · 10× Arab NORP · 7× Palestinian NORP · 6× Israeli NORP · 4× Knesset ORG · 4× Arabs NORP · 3× Ra’am ORG · 3× Channel 12 ORG · 2× Likud ORG · 2× Mansour Abbas PERSON · 2×

Narrative

She noted the record turnout among what has emerged as a key voting bloc, which drew “even [voters] who would usually boycott elections, who didn’t believe it would amount to any kind of influence, that it would change their reality, that it would alter the systemic discrimination that they face”.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 Israel’s Arab parties are projected to win 18 seats in the Israeli parliament, exit polls indicate, after voting among Palestinian citizens of Israel surged to their highest levels in decades.
2026-10-28 · Al Jazeera
Arab parties could win 18 seats in Israeli elections, exit polls suggest · assertive framing

Claims (21 extracted, 3 hedged)

Israel’s Arab parties are projected to win 18 seats in the Israeli parliament, exit polls indicate, after voting among Palestinian citizens of Israel surged to their highest levels in decades. asserted
voting → project → decades
Exit polling data from Tuesday’s vote suggested that the leading Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, are set to hold a record number of seats in the 120-member Knesset. uncertain
parties → suggest → Knesset
Updated exit polling indicated that the opposition bloc led by former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party were tied at 51 seats each. asserted
bloc → update → seats
Recommended Stories list of 3 items- list 1 of 3Israel heads to the polls as shift to the right dominates critical election - list 2 of 3Iranians brace for renewed attacks after Israeli, US elections - list 3 of 3Palestinian citizens of Israel can vote, but cannot expect change asserted
citizens → head → change
Early indications put voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel at around 80 percent, historic numbers that break 1999 records, Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Tuesday. asserted
Channel → put → Tuesday
The leader of Ra’am, or the United Arab List, Mansour Abbas, said he hopes the final election results will allow the anti-Netanyahu bloc, including his party, to win the 61 seats required to form a government. asserted
bloc → say → government
“With the numbers we have now, there is no government,” Abbas told Israel’s Channel 12. asserted
Abbas → have → Channel
Abbas, whose Ra’am party currently holds five seats in the Knesset and joined the coalition that governed Israel from 2021 to 2022, added that both main blocs reached out to his party before and after the election. asserted
blocs → hold → election
‘Arabs can’t be kept outside’ asserted
Arabs → keep → ?
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, said creating a government might prove difficult for parties such as Eisenkot’s – which earlier exit polls had put narrowly ahead – because they promised not to form coalitions with Arab parties during the campaign. uncertain
they → speak → campaign
“There’s a price to pay,” Pinkas said, because the “Arabs can’t be kept outside and only being considered and co-opted when you need their votes”. asserted
you → ’ → votes
He added that the Arab-led lists will make demands that a Jewish-led coalition government may not support. uncertain
government → add → that
Netanyahu and his far-right coalition made last-ditch efforts on Tuesday to get their supporters to the polls, warning of surging voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, a tactic Arab politicians denounced as racist and inflammatory. asserted
politicians → make → Israel
Cars flying Netanyahu’s Likud party flags drove through Jerusalem blaring the Islamic call to prayer and urging supporters to cast their ballots because “Arabs are voting”, witnesses said. asserted
witnesses → fly → ballots
In social media posts, the embattled prime minister highlighted long queues at polling stations in Arab communities and published an image that he said showed Arab voters, including women wearing the niqab, a veil that covers the lower half of the face, waiting to vote. asserted
that → highlight → face
“If we don’t wake up now, we’ll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi,” he said, referring to two leading Palestinian members of the Knesset. asserted
he → wake → Knesset
Overall voter turnout was also historic, reaching its highest level since 1999 with 77.7 percent casting ballots in Tuesday’s election, the Central Elections Committee reported. asserted
Committee → reach → election
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 21 percent of the country’s population of 10 million and have traditionally voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis. asserted
citizens → make → Israelis
Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, called the election “an existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis”. asserted
Odeh → report → Israelis
She noted the record turnout among what has emerged as a key voting bloc, which drew “even [voters] who would usually boycott elections, who didn’t believe it would amount to any kind of influence, that it would change their reality, that it would alter the systemic discrimination that they face”. asserted
they → note → that
The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws discriminating against Palestinian citizens of Israel, who also face discrimination in receiving state funds, Odeh said. asserted
Odeh → pass → funds
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