One Nation’s primary vote is back on par with Labor in the latest Guardian Essential poll, with Anthony Albanese’s public disapproval rising to its equal highest on record and more Australians than ever before believing the country is on the wrong track.
asserted
country → rise → track
But Australians are still not convinced One Nation or the Coalition would do a better job than the current government, with Labor still the most trusted party on the economy and managing the country.
asserted
Labor → convince → country
“This is a sobering poll for Labor, but not a ringing endorsement of One Nation either,” Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, said.
asserted
Lewis → say → Media
The Guardian Essential poll of 1,087 Australians, conducted last week, found Labor and One Nation neck and neck on 28% of the primary vote each.
asserted
Labor → conduct → vote
Both conservative parties have improved their votes since last month, when One Nation was on 25% and the Coalition on 22%.
asserted
Coalition → improve → %
The poll took place early last week, after the alleged attack on the respected independent MP Helen Haines.
Labor lost a point from September’s 29%, coinciding with a further deterioration of Albanese’s personal approval ratings, and amid increasing scrutiny of the government’s handling of the economy, inflation and cost-of-living issues.
asserted
Labor → take → living
Disapproval of Albanese rose two points to 56%, the equal highest in Essential’s polling since he became prime minister in 2022.
asserted
he → rise → 2022
The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, scored a 35% approval and 40% disapproval, for a net approval of -5 – a marked improvement since September, when his approval rating was just 31% and his disapproval 43%.
asserted
disapproval → score → September
The poll also showed a new high number of Australians saying they felt the nation was going in the wrong direction, adding to the midterm malaise for Labor.
asserted
nation → show → Labor
In October, 61% of respondents said they thought the country was on the wrong track, with just 25% believing it was on the right track.
asserted
it → say → track
Essential’s “wrong track” number has been steadily increasing over Labor’s time in office, up from just 38% in May 2023.
uncertain
number → increase → May
But it increased markedly between late last year, when it was 46% in October 2025, and early this year when it rose to 54% in January and has not dipped below 50% since.
asserted
it → increase → %
Voters are also quick to blame the government for economic and cost-of-living issues.
asserted
Voters → blame → issues
Asked what was most responsible for the rising cost of living from a list of factors, 32% of voters nominated government spending as the top cause.
asserted
% → ask → cause
That was far above global events such as the war in the Middle East (which 24% nominated as the top cause) and supermarket price gouging (19%).
asserted
% → nominate → cause
“The key markers are historic low levels for Labor midway through the term, but the electorate is clearly not settled on any viable alternative,” Lewis said.
asserted
Lewis → settle → alternative
“A key challenge is the perception that it’s local factors, rather than the global chaos emanating from the White House, which is to blame for cost-of-living pressure.”
asserted
which → ’ → pressure
The poll asked Australians which party they trusted on key issues, and what voters thought One Nation could do if it won government.
uncertain
it → ask → government
When voters were asked which party was trusted to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, Labor led on 32%, followed by One Nation on 29% and the Coalition far back on 18%.
asserted
Labor → ask → %
Some 21% of voters said they didn’t see any difference.
asserted
they → say → difference
On which party was trusted to “manage the country generally”, Labor again led on 31%, with One Nation (25%) and the Coalition (23%) further back.
asserted
Labor → trust → Nation
Voters also gave their verdict on how One Nation would govern.
asserted
Nation → give → verdict
While 43% of voters said they thought Pauline Hanson’s party would manage immigration better than current settings, 33% said they thought it would be worse.
asserted
it → say → settings
Only 20% of voters thought One Nation would handle relationships with trading partners such as the US and China better, with 39% believing it would do a worse job.
asserted
it → think → job
One Nation also received mixed verdicts on how it would manage energy policy (29% of voters said better, 36% said worse), cost of groceries (27% better, 37% worse), managing a crisis like a pandemic (23% better, 41% worse) and management of the economy (29% better, 39% worse).
asserted
% → receive → economy
The Aporia
